For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Eagles160 of 169 plays carry both curves
(5:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 19-D.Moore for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.6 for BuccaneersExpected points +4.97 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 14 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:59TB +15% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 19-D.Moore for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:54TB +12% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith to TB 5 for 55 yards (35-J.Dean).
3rd · 1:30TB +10% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 10-T.Palmer for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:08TB +10% win prob(14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
2nd · 1:42TB +9% win prob(1:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to PHI 5, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9.
3rd · 14:12PHI +8% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 15 for -9 yards (sack split by 94-C.Kancey and 50-V.Vea).
2nd · 1:33
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 28-yard field goal with 10:05 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:05Chase McLaughlin·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+30–3
Buccaneers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Eagles: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Eagles: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.32Buccaneers: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Eagles: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.05Buccaneers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 54 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 69 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's pass rate over expected, +12.4 pts, sat 14.2 points above their season number of −1.8 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.4 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
TB's blitz rate sent, 71.8%, sat 32.6 points above their season number of 39.2% — they sent pressure by 2.3 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Buccaneers12.8%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.4 pts, 14.2 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.4 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 19-D.Moore for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:59 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 7 at PHI 44 · gained 44 · +4.97 EP · +12.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 84 yards from the TB 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
702
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2478%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3368%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1061%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0746%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.420%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Eagles0Buccaneers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Eagles 10
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Eagles0Buccaneers9
Eagles0Buccaneers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Eagles 44
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Eagles 33
2nd quarter53 plays
Eagles0Buccaneers13
Field goal3 plays
Eagles3Buccaneers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 30
Eagles3Buccaneers16
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Eagles 30
Eagles9Buccaneers16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Eagles 45
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 34
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Eagles 45
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 23
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Eagles 36
Eagles9Buccaneers18
Drive ended3 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 14
Eagles9Buccaneers24
Eagles9Buccaneers25
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Buccaneers 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 44
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 17
Eagles9Buccaneers31
Eagles9Buccaneers32
Touchdown17 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Eagles 22
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 38
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Eagles 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
