2023 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 15, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

PHI -2.5 upsetU 43 ✓Eagles closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:59, TB +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:59PHI 0 — TB 9TB ball · 3rd & 7TB 51%

(5:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 19-D.Moore for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:59TB +15% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 19-D.Moore for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:54TB +12% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith to TB 5 for 55 yards (35-J.Dean).
Q3 · 1:30TB +10% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 10-T.Palmer for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:08TB +10% win prob(14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:05TB Field goal
(10:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: PHI 0 — TB 3
Q1 · 5:59TB Touchdown
(5:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 19-D.Moore for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 0 — TB 10
Q2 · 14:08TB Field goal
(14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: PHI 0 — TB 13
Q2 · 11:36PHI Field goal
(11:36) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — TB 13
Q2 · 5:40TB Field goal
(5:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — TB 16
Q2 · 3:10PHI Touchdown
(3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PHI 9 — TB 16
Q3 · 2:28TB Safety
(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left [98-A.Nelson]. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.
Score after this play: PHI 9 — TB 18
Q3 · 1:30TB Touchdown
(1:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 10-T.Palmer for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 9 — TB 25
Q4 · 5:47TB Touchdown
(5:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 9 — TB 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	54	69
Total yards	276	426 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	30%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	0/9	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

22/36, 337 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

25/35, 250 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.1 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

18 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

10 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

8/12 for 148 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Cade OttonTE

8/11 for 89 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	13	65	4:58	Field goal +3
2	PHI	PHI 25	7	19	2:55	Punt
3	TB	TB 21	5	69	1:20	Touchdown +7
4	PHI	PHI 25	5	7	1:25	Punt
5	TB	TB 24	10	40	5:19	Field goal +3
6	PHI	PHI 25	8	45	2:32	Field goal +3
7	TB	TB 25	14	45	5:56	Field goal +3
8	PHI	PHI 25	7	80	2:29	Touchdown +6
9	TB	TB 25	8	23	1:33	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 9	7	31	1:33	End of half
11	PHI	PHI 25	5	-10	1:29	Punt
12	TB	TB 41	5	4	2:08	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 13	6	6	4:10	Punt
14	TB	TB 36	6	19	3:32	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 10	3	4	1:23	Safety
16	TB	TB 38	4	62	0:59	Touchdown +7
17	PHI	PHI 27	10	61	4:22	Turnover on downs
18	TB	TB 17	13	93	6:15	Touchdown +7
19	PHI	PHI 25	6	25	2:30	Turnover on downs
20	TB	PHI 40	4	6	2:03	Turnover on downs
21	PHI	PHI 34	2	8	1:09	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 93 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	25/35	250	1	0	3	-3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Andre Swift	10	34	3.4	-2.4
Jalen Hurts	1	5	5.0	-1.0
Kenneth Gainwell	4	3	0.8	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	8	12	148	0	38%	4.2
D'Andre Swift	4	4	32	0	13%	0.7
Julio Jones	3	3	22	0	9%	1.3
Dallas Goedert	4	6	21	1	19%	-1.7
Quez Watkins	3	4	12	0	13%	-1.3
Kenneth Gainwell	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.9
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nicholas Morrow	6	3	0.0	0
Zach Cunningham	3	5	0.0	2
Avonte Maddox	4	3	0.0	0
Darius Slay	4	2	0.0	0
Josh Sweat	3	1	1.0	0
Kevin Byard	4	0	0.0	0
Nolan Smith	1	3	0.5	0
Brandon Graham	3	0	1.0	0
Bradley Roby	2	1	0.0	0
James Bradberry	2	1	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/36	337	3	0	4	11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	18	72	4.0	-0.3
Baker Mayfield	2	16	8.0	1.8
Chase Edmonds	7	12	1.7	-3.0
Deven Thompkins	1	10	10.0	1.1
Trey Palmer	1	9	9.0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cade Otton	8	11	89	0	31%	5.3
David Moore	2	3	66	1	9%	6.6
Trey Palmer	1	2	56	1	6%	2.8
Mike Evans	3	7	48	0	20%	-0.1
Chris Godwin	4	5	45	1	14%	5.1
Payne Durham	1	1	18	0	3%	1.1
Chase Edmonds	1	2	8	0	6%	0.6
Deven Thompkins	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Rachaad White	1	3	3	0	9%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamel Dean	7	1	0.0	1
Lavonte David	5	0	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	3	1	0.0	2
Calijah Kancey	3	1	0.5	0
Antoine Winfield	3	0	0.0	1
K.J. Britt	0	3	0.0	1
Zyon McCollum	3	0	0.0	0
Vita Vea	1	1	0.5	0
Greg Gaines	1	1	1.0	0
Pat O'Connor	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -2.5
Closing total: 43
PHI moneyline: -162
TB moneyline: +136

Eagles closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 41 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: PHI 8 days · TB 8 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Todd Bowles