2023 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 15, 2024 · New Era Field

Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -10 ✓O 39.5 ✓17°FBills closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.

Buffalo Bills 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 4:21, PIT +4% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:21PIT 0 — BUF 7PIT ball · 1st & 10BUF 91%

(4:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Pickens (7-Ta.Johnson). Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:21PIT +4% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Pickens (7-Ta.Johnson). Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to PIT 26 for 8 yards (7-Ta.Johnson). FUMBLES (7-Ta.Johnson), RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at PIT 29.
Q4 · 10:37BUF +4% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-C.Austin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:05BUF +3% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:57PIT +3% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 24-K.Elam at BUF -2. Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:05BUF Touchdown
(7:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — BUF 7
Q1 · 4:15BUF Touchdown
(4:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — BUF 14
Q2 · 7:12BUF Touchdown
(7:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — BUF 21
Q2 · 1:43PIT Touchdown
(1:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — BUF 21
Q3 · 8:54PIT Field goal
(8:54) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 10 — BUF 21
Q3 · 1:36BUF Field goal
(1:36) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: PIT 10 — BUF 24
Q4 · 10:37PIT Touchdown
(10:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-C.Austin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BUF 24
Q4 · 6:37BUF Touchdown
(6:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BUF 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bills
Offensive plays	62	65
Total yards	324	371 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	40%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

22/39, 229 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

21/30, 203 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.7 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

18 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

9.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

5/8 for 76 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Dalton KincaidTE

3/6 for 59 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 30	7	19	2:25	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 20	11	80	5:33	Touchdown +7
3	PIT	PIT 25	5	6	1:41	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 27	4	8	1:00	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 18	1	8	0:06	Fumble
6	BUF	PIT 29	2	29	0:05	Touchdown +7
7	PIT	PIT 25	5	1	0:58	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 44	4	-4	1:29	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 8	10	79	5:51	Interception
10	BUF	BUF 20	9	80	3:51	Touchdown +7
11	PIT	PIT 25	5	3	0:57	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 21	8	48	3:50	Missed field goal
13	PIT	BUF 33	6	33	0:35	Touchdown +7
14	BUF	BUF 25	5	7	1:39	End of half
15	BUF	BUF 25	5	2	1:36	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 40	9	48	4:34	Field goal +3
17	BUF	BUF 25	15	48	7:18	Field goal +3
18	PIT	PIT 25	14	75	6:00	Touchdown +7
19	BUF	BUF 30	9	50	4:05	Touchdown +7
20	PIT	PIT 25	5	7	1:37	Turnover on downs
21	BUF	PIT 32	8	23	2:53	Missed field goal
22	PIT	PIT 20	9	45	1:57	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mason Rudolph	22/39	229	2	1	1	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Warren	8	38	4.8	-0.3
Najee Harris	12	37	3.1	-2.7
Mason Rudolph	2	16	8.0	-0.8
George Pickens	1	15	15.0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Freiermuth	5	8	76	0	21%	2.8
George Pickens	5	11	50	0	29%	-7.1
Diontae Johnson	4	7	48	1	18%	-0.5
Jaylen Warren	2	2	16	0	5%	0.6
Najee Harris	2	3	15	0	8%	-0.1
Allen Robinson	2	3	12	0	8%	-1.3
Calvin Austin	1	2	7	1	5%	1.9
Connor Heyward	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Darnell Washington	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	5	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	5	2	0.0	1
Cameron Heyward	4	2	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	2	0.0	1
Larry Ogunjobi	2	3	0.0	0
Mark Robinson	3	2	0.0	0
Keeanu Benton	1	4	0.0	0
Myles Jack	2	2	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	0	0.0	0
Markus Golden	2	1	1.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	21/30	203	3	0	2	3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	18	79	4.4	0	-0.3
Josh Allen	8	74	9.3	1	9.0
Ty Johnson	8	26	3.3	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Kincaid	3	6	59	1	20%	2.0
Stefon Diggs	7	9	52	0	30%	3.4
Deonte Harty	1	1	34	0	3%	2.1
Khalil Shakir	3	3	31	1	10%	3.0
Latavius Murray	2	2	13	0	7%	-0.9
Dawson Knox	1	2	9	1	7%	1.4
James Cook	4	4	5	0	13%	-3.0
Ty Johnson	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.3
Andy Isabella	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
A.J. Klein	7	4	0.0	0	0
Dorian Williams	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kaiir Elam	1	4	0.0	1	1
Leonard Floyd	1	3	0.0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	2	1.0	0	0
Terrel Bernard	3	1	0.0	0	2
Micah Hyde	3	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Lewis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -10
Closing total: 39.5
PIT moneyline: +370
BUF moneyline: -485

Bills closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 48 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 17°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: PIT 9 days · BUF 8 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Sean McDermott