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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 15, 2024 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Wild Card
It turned at Q1 4:21, 1st and 10, on George Pickens — 4.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:21 · 1st and 10
George Pickens
Bills
(4:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Pickens (7-Ta.Johnson). Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to PIT 26 for 8 yards (7-Ta.Johnson). FUMBLES (7-Ta.Johnson), RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at PIT 29.
Buffalo Bills 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 4:21, Bills +4.0% win probability on one snap.
4.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(4:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Pickens (7-Ta.Johnson). Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 9-yard touchdown catch with 7:05 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 62 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bills’s 65 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Bills 5.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-3.9 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 62 snaps
Bills0.2 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 93%
Tendencies room →Steelers58.0%inside their normal wobble · +9.9 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 50 early downs
Bills50.0%right on their number · −5.8 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Steelers17.1%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bills11.8%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 20.1%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -65% to 161%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.2%.
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers41.2%leaned — sent pressure · +12.6 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills14.6%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 36%
Tendencies room →Steelers8.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills14.6%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.8%, 7.1 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 1.4 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
22/39, 229 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.1 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
21/30, 203 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
3.7 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Josh Allen banked 17.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 33.5 | +17.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 203 yd, 3 TD · 8 car, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Mason RudolphQB · Starter QB | 16.8 | +4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/39, 229 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 16 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Featured Receiver | 14.9 | +3.6 | 55% | 59% | 20% | 44% | 3/6, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 14.8 | +4.8 | 85% | 88% | 18% | 27% | 4/7, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 12.6 | +2.6 | 68% | 69% | 21% | 23% | 5/8, 76 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | −3.4 | 61% | 56% | 13% | 0% | 18 car, 79 yd · 4/4, 5 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.2 | −0.3 | 84% | 88% | 30% | 33% | 7/9, 52 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +7.9 | 67% | 82% | 10% | 6% | 3/3, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.5 | −5.6 | 91% | 93% | 29% | 43% | 1 car, 15 yd · 5/11, 50 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +3.2 | 42% | 44% | 7% | 10% | 1/2, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +4.2 | 42% | 45% | 5% | 4% | 1/2, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 7.4 | +0.9 | 43% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 8 car, 38 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −3.7 | 57% | 50% | 8% | 3% | 12 car, 37 yd · 2/3, 15 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +2.8 | 21% | 26% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 34 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 3.3 | +0.4 | 15% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −0.1 | 40% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2.6 | −4.5 | 22% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 8 car, 26 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 23% | 21% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Andy IsabellaWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 35% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Pickens (7-Ta.Johnson). Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to PIT 26 for 8 yards (7-Ta.Johnson). FUMBLES (7-Ta.Johnson), RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at PIT 29.
Q1 4:21 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 18 · gained 8 · -4.54 EP · −8.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 88 yards from the PIT 8 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Bills6Steelers0Bills7Steelers0Bills13Steelers0Bills14Steelers0Bills20Steelers0Bills21Steelers6Bills21Steelers7Bills21Steelers10Bills21Steelers10Bills24Steelers16Bills24Steelers17Bills24Steelers17Bills30Steelers17Bills31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 22/39 | 229 | 2 | 1 | 1 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 21% | +2.8 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 29% | −7.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Heyward | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Robinson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/30 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_19_PIT_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 48 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| George Pickens | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 18% | −0.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −0.1 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 5% | +1.9 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 79 |
| 4.4 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 1 | +9.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 20% | +2.0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 30% | +3.4 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 10% | +3.0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 7% | +1.4 |
| James Cook | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −3.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Andy Isabella | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Klein | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
