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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 21 at San Francisco 49ers 24. Final.
49ers -10.5 no coverU 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers 24, Packers 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:11, 3rd and 1, on Christian McCaffrey — 19.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:11 · 3rd and 1
Christian McCaffrey
49ers
(1:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:11, 49ers +19.3% win probability on one snap.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Anders Carlson49ersQ4 6:21(6:21) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
17.7pts
Dre Greenlaw49ersQ4 0:52(:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [97-N.Bosa] at SF 42. 57-D.Greenlaw to GB 40 for 18 yards (11-J.Reed).
17.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.07 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.03 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Packers at 7 of 13 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Packers159 of 167 plays carry both curves
(1:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.3 for 49ersExpected points +1.89 for 49ersThe model had Packers 2 points higher than the market did.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:11SF +19% win prob(1:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:21GB +18% win prob(6:21) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
4th · 0:52GB +17% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [97-N.Bosa] at SF 42. 57-D.Greenlaw to GB 40 for 18 yards (11-J.Reed).
3rd · 7:47SF +17% win prob(7:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:23SF +13% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings to GB 40 for 21 yards (36-A.Johnson) [91-P.Smith].
3rd · 9:40SF +13% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 80-B.Melton. PENALTY on SF-20-A.Thomas, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 1:11 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:26Anders Carlson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–0
3rd5:26Tucker Kraft·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love · two-point good+821–14
4th15:00Jake Moody·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+321–17
4th1:11Christian McCaffrey·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+721–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by category49ers
Packers2–649ers
333Total yards357
5.4Yards per play5.8
44%Success rate47%
54%Third-down rate63%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
18First downs19
0Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Packers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.1649ers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Packers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.1949ers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against 49ers’s 62 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, 49ers 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
49ers16.7%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.0%, 12.8 points above their season mean of 50.2% and 1.3 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass−25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [97-N.Bosa] at SF 42. 57-D.Greenlaw to GB 40 for 18 yards (11-J.Reed).
Q4 0:52 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 36 · gained nothing · -3.24 EP · −25.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 86 yards from the SF 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
43%
Yards
688
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1667%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2374%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1939%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.1060%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3433%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Packers349ers0
Field goal16 plays, from the Packers 31 to the 49ers 11
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 44
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 18 to the 49ers 23
2nd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Packers349ers6
Packers349ers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the Packers 32
Packers649ers7
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 9
The period ended16 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Packers1249ers7
Packers1349ers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 19
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers1349ers13
Packers1349ers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 39
Packers1949ers14
Packers2149ers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 2
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 18
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Packers 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Packers 35
4th quarter43 plays
Packers2149ers17
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 33
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 40
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
No good7 plays, from the Packers 10 to the 49ers 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Packers2149ers23
Packers2149ers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Packers 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 36
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
