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2023 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 20, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Green Bay Packers

21

San Francisco 49ersWinner

24

SF -10.5 no coverU 50.5 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:11, SF +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 1:11GB 21 — SF 23SF ball · 3rd & 1SF 62%

(1:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:11SF +19% win prob(1:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 6:21GB +18% win prob(6:21) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
  3. Q4 · 0:52GB +17% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [97-N.Bosa] at SF 42. 57-D.Greenlaw to GB 40 for 18 yards (11-J.Reed).
  4. Q3 · 7:47SF +17% win prob(7:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:26GB Field goal

    (7:26) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — SF 0
  2. Q2 · 8:48SF Touchdown

    (8:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 3 — SF 7
  3. Q2 · 4:13GB Field goal

    (4:13) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 6 — SF 7
  4. Q3 · 9:33GB Touchdown

    (9:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 80-B.Melton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 13 — SF 7
  5. Q3 · 7:47SF Touchdown

    (7:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 13 — SF 14
  6. Q3 · 5:26GB Touchdown

    (5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: GB 21 — SF 14
  7. Q4 · 15:00SF Field goal

    (15:00) 4-J.Moody 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: GB 21 — SF 17
  8. Q4 · 1:11SF Touchdown

    (1:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 21 — SF 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackers49ers
Offensive plays6262
Total yards333357 (edge)
Yards per play5.45.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.030.17 (edge)
Success rate44%47% (edge)
Dropback rate58%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.19 (edge)
Third downs7/1310/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps1819 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers20 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

23/39, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

21/34, 194 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-0.1 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

18 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

17 att, 98 yds, 2 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

4/6 for 83 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

4/7 for 81 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 3115457:38Field goal +3
2SFSF 207223:13Punt
3GBGB 1810664:39Turnover on downs
4SFSF 1413865:48Touchdown +7
5GBGB 2511644:33Field goal +3
6SFSF 2512454:04Missed field goal
7GBGB 38100:05End of half
8SFSF 25561:32Punt
9GBGB 2510454:01Touchdown +7
10SFSF 256751:48Touchdown +7
11GBSF 206222:16Touchdown +8
12SFSF 13551:40Punt
13GBGB 384101:41Interception
14SFGB 487142:06Field goal +3
15GBGB 25581:34Punt
16SFSF 259353:45Punt
17GBGB 106623:19Missed field goal
18SFSF 3113695:11Touchdown +7
19GBGB 255110:33Interception
20SFGB 40100:34End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love21/34194220-0.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones181086.002.7
Emanuel Wilson4164.00-0.5
Jayden Reed199.000.9
Jordan Love530.60-5.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs4683018%6.4
Jayden Reed4435012%0.7
Bo Melton111913%2.4
Luke Musgrave3414012%1.2
Emanuel Wilson111103%1.6
Christian Watson121106%-2.4
Tucker Kraft369118%-4.0
Aaron Jones368018%-3.7
Ben Sims11403%-0.3
Dontayvion Wicks02006%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker340.000
De'Vondre Campbell430.001
Kenny Clark230.500
Jaire Alexander410.000
Keisean Nixon320.000
Tedarrell Slaton310.000
Carrington Valentine310.000
Darnell Savage220.001
Jonathan Owens120.000
Preston Smith110.500

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy23/392521017.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey17985.824.4
Brock Purdy6142.30-2.4
Jauan Jennings1-1-1.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle4781119%6.6
Jauan Jennings5661017%4.5
Brandon Aiyuk3632017%1.2
Christian McCaffrey71230033%-3.5
Deebo Samuel222406%1.5
Chris Conley111703%1.1
Ray-Ray McCloud12706%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw420.022
Fred Warner410.000
Deommodore Lenoir410.000
Ambry Thomas320.000
Charvarius Ward410.001
Nick Bosa210.000
Chase Young210.000
Tashaun Gipson300.000
Logan Ryan210.000
Arik Armstead120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -10.5
Closing total
50.5
GB moneyline
+360
SF moneyline
-470

49ers closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 45 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
59°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
GB 6 days · SF 13 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Kyle Shanahan