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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Texans156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.8 for RavensExpected points −5.52 for RavensThe model had Texans 16 points higher than the market did.play 65
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:34HOU +12% win prob(4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00BAL +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to BAL 47 for 29 yards (21-B.Stephens).
2nd · 0:37HOU +8% win prob(:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
1st · 6:46BAL +6% win prob(6:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 26-D.Singletary to BAL 36 for 26 yards (6-P.Queen).
3rd · 12:10BAL +5% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:33BAL +5% win prob(:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
2nd · 0:32
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lamar Jackson's 15-yard rushing touchdown with 12:10 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:40Justin Tucker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+30–3
1st0:33Ka'imi Fairbairn·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–3
4th2:00Justin Tucker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+310–34
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryRavens
Texans1–6Ravens
214Total yards352
4.7Yards per play5.3
30%Success rate46%
33%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays9
9First downs22
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Ravens ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Texans: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.22Ravens: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Texans: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.36Ravens: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.45Texans: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.11Ravens: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 46 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Ravens’s 67 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Texans 0, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's blitz rate sent, 63.3%, sat 44.1 points above their season number of 19.2% — they sent pressure by 5.4 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Ravens14.3%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteHOU's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 63.3%, 44.1 points above their season mean of 19.2% and 5.4 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%49 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%49 snaps
77George FantT · Every snap100%49 snaps
70Juice ScruggsC · Every snap100%49 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%49 snaps
63Michael DeiterC · Every snap100%49 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Full-time86%42 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time84%41 snaps
8John Metchie IIIWR · Heavy rotation71%35 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation69%34 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation65%32 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Rotational39%19 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational37%18 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Rotational31%15 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Situational10%5 snaps
82Steven SimsWR · Situational8%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jerry HughesDETeair TartDTNick BroekerGCase KeenumQBEric SaubertTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Davis MillsQBKareem JacksonSS
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%68 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Full-time97%66 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Full-time96%65 snaps
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Full-time90%61 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Full-time84%57 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time82%56 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation65%44 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation65%44 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational47%32 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational34%23 snaps
3Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Rotational29%20 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Situational16%11 snaps
31Dalvin CookRB · Situational13%9 snaps
66Ben ClevelandG · Situational12%8 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sam MustipherCMarlon HumphreyCBMalaesala Aumavae-LauluGDel'Shawn PhillipsOLBMalik CunninghamQBJosh JohnsonQBTylan WallaceWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Stout punts−13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:34 · Ravens · 4th & 10 at BAL 22 · gained nothing · -5.52 EP · −12.9% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 93 yards from the BAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2679%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.2968%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.1835%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0818%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.3333%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1056%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8+0.0413%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
Texans0Ravens3
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Texans 34
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 32
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 21
Texans3Ravens3
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Ravens 27
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Texans3Ravens9
Texans3Ravens10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Texans 2
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 33
Texans9Ravens10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 26
Texans10Ravens10
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 28
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Ravens 29
The period ended7 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Texans10Ravens16
Texans10Ravens17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Texans 15
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 39
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Texans 24
4th quarter45 plays
Texans10Ravens23
Texans10Ravens24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 15
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Texans10Ravens30
Texans10Ravens31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Texans 8
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Texans 33
Texans10Ravens34
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
