For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 20, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Houston Texans

10

Baltimore RavensWinner

34

BAL -10 ✓44 push27°F · 16 mph

Baltimore Ravens 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:34, HOU +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑HOU ↓
Q2 · 4:34HOU 9 — BAL 10BAL ball · 4th & 10BAL 89%

(4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 4:34HOU +12% win prob(4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 2:00BAL +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to BAL 47 for 29 yards (21-B.Stephens).
  3. Q2 · 0:37HOU +8% win prob(:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
  4. Q1 · 6:46BAL +6% win prob(6:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 26-D.Singletary to BAL 36 for 26 yards (6-P.Queen).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:40BAL Field goal

    (8:40) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — BAL 3
  2. Q1 · 0:33HOU Field goal

    (:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — BAL 3
  3. Q2 · 9:18BAL Touchdown

    (9:18) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — BAL 10
  4. Q2 · 4:34HOU Touchdown

    (4:34) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 82-S.Sims for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — BAL 10
  5. Q3 · 12:10BAL Touchdown

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — BAL 17
  6. Q4 · 14:28BAL Touchdown

    (14:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — BAL 24
  7. Q4 · 6:26BAL Touchdown

    (6:26) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — BAL 31
  8. Q4 · 2:00BAL Field goal

    (2:00) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — BAL 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansRavens
Offensive plays4667
Total yards214352 (edge)
Yards per play4.75.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.220.22 (edge)
Success rate30%46% (edge)
Dropback rate76%45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.150.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.450.11 (edge)
Third downs4/124/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)49 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps922 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers00

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

19/33, 175 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.3 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/22, 152 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 100 yds, 2 TD

11.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Justice HillRB

13 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

5/10 for 68 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

5/6 for 48 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 25571:29Punt
2BALBAL 259414:55Field goal +3
3HOUHOU 259483:34Punt
4BALBAL 13481:40Punt
5HOUHOU 458332:54Field goal +3
6BALBAL 2413766:14Touchdown +7
7HOUHOU 24591:53Punt
8BALBAL 22403:04Defensive touchdown
9BALBAL 25530:58Punt
10HOUHOU 278492:47Missed field goal
11BALBAL 374-100:27Punt
12HOUHOU 18100:05End of half
13BALBAL 458552:56Touchdown +7
14HOUHOU 2511275:38Punt
15BALBAL 713887:03Touchdown +7
16HOUHOU 25550:53Punt
17BALBAL 2212837:10Touchdown +7
18HOUHOU 295191:16Turnover on downs
19BALHOU 33883:08Field goal +3
20HOUHOU 304171:56End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 88 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud19/33175000-4.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary9222.40-3.6
C.J. Stroud393.00-0.9
Dare Ogunbowale273.50-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins51068032%1.3
Devin Singletary5648019%3.5
Dalton Schultz5743023%-1.1
Dare Ogunbowale111303%-0.0
Robert Woods146013%-2.8
Brevin Jordan01003%-0.6
Xavier Hutchinson22-306%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Steven Nelson610.000
Christian Harris610.000
Jalen Pitre420.001
DeAndre Houston-Carson230.000
Desmond King501.000
Derek Barnett230.000
Denzel Perryman230.000
Blake Cashman401.000
Jonathan Greenard310.000
Sheldon Rankins300.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson16/221522033.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson111009.1211.6
Justice Hill13665.100.4
Gus Edwards10404.000.3
Dalvin Cook8232.90-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers4541024%2.4
Rashod Bateman3339014%1.6
Isaiah Likely2334114%2.3
Nelson Agholor2412119%0.5
Odell Beckham111205%0.7
Justice Hill2211010%1.3
Charlie Kolar11405%-0.1
Gus Edwards12-1010%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith520.000
Malik Harrison130.000
Patrick Queen400.000
Arthur Maulet310.000
Brandon Stephens210.000
Ronald Darby300.002
Nnamdi Madubuike110.000
Broderick Washington110.000
Jadeveon Clowney110.000
Marcus Williams020.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -10
Closing total
44
HOU moneyline
+330
BAL moneyline
-425

Ravens closed -10 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 44 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
27°F, wind 16 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
HOU 7 days · BAL 14 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs John Harbaugh

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.