For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 21, 2024 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Divisional Round
It turned at Q4 1:47, 4th and 9, on Tyler Bass — 27.1 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:47, Chiefs +27.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:47 · 4th and 9
Tyler Bass
Chiefs
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
27.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bills at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Chiefs at 1 of 4 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 53% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Isiah Pacheco's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 14:24 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 43 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bills’s 78 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Bills 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's sack or hit rate, 4.3%, sat 14.4 points below their season number of 18.7% — they stayed blocked by 2.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs6.5 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 43 snaps
Bills-4.0 ptsright on their number · −4.3 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 78 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 93%
Tendencies room →Chiefs53.8%leaned — ran early · −8.7 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 39 early downs
Bills54.1%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 61 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Chiefs20.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Bills15.2%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 20.1%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -65% to 161%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.4%.
Bills75.0%inside their normal wobble · +26.7 vs their 48.3%, and they swing ±44.3 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 64%
Tendencies room →Chiefs30.4%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bills20.0%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chiefs4.3%off script — stayed blocked · −14.4 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−2.25× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bills8.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
KC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 14.4 points below their season mean of 18.7% and 2.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
17/23, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
14.1 expected points added · +18.2% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
26/39, 186 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.8 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
2/4 for 62 yds, 0 TD
19% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 9.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 30.6 | 0.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/39, 186 yd, 1 TD · 12 car, 72 yd, 2 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 24.5 | +9.0 | 84% | 100% | 29% | 39% | 5/6, 75 yd, 2 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 18.5 | +2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 215 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 19 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.1 | +8.0 | 72% | 60% | 5% | 1% | 15 car, 97 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 17.4 | +2.4 | 70% | 72% | 24% | 20% | 7/9, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 12.2 | −6.2 | 51% | 41% | 14% | 0% | 18 car, 61 yd · 4/5, 21 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +2.1 | 62% | 76% | 14% | 6% | 5/5, 45 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Featured Receiver | 8.7 | +3.2 | 64% | 76% | 19% | 4% | 4/4, 47 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | +0.9 | 50% | 56% | 19% | 43% | 2/4, 62 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 6.4 | +0.9 | 27% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 40 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −7.5 | 90% | 91% | 22% | 37% | 1 car, 7 yd · 3/8, 21 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Receiving Back | 5.7 | −0.5 | 18% | 28% | 11% | 2% | 3/4, 27 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +0.7 | 60% | 52% | 14% | 7% | 3/3, 16 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 4.0 | +1.5 | 26% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 31 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.7 | 86% | 83% | 8% | 38% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 40% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 12% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 44% | 44% | 5% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.9 | −7.0 | 38% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 1:47 · Bills · 4th & 9 at KC 26 · gained nothing · -3.26 EP · −31.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Bills3Chiefs3Bills3Chiefs3Bills9Chiefs3Bills10Chiefs6Bills10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Chiefs12Bills10Chiefs13Bills10Chiefs13Bills16Chiefs13Bills17Chiefs19Bills17Chiefs20Bills17How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Chiefs20Bills23Chiefs20Bills24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chiefs26Bills24Chiefs27Bills24How the play was built
A man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 17/23 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +14.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 97 | 6.5 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 75 | 2 | 29% | +7.2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/39 | 186 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_20_KC_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 51 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 19 |
| 3.2 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| 19% |
| +3.2 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 19% | +5.1 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 14% | −0.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −6.7 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Pennel | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 2 | +8.0 |
| James Cook | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Ty Johnson | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Damar Hamlin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 14% | +3.0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 24% | +6.3 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 11% | +0.3 |
| James Cook | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 14% | +0.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 22% | −3.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Klein | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
