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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 21, 2024 · New Era Field
Final
ChiefsKansas City27
BY 3final margin
BillsBuffalo24
Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Buffalo Bills 24. Final.
Bills -2.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Bills 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:47, 4th and 9, on Tyler Bass — 27.1 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:47 · 4th and 9
Tyler Bass
Chiefs
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
25°F
Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:47, Chiefs +27.1% win probability on one snap.
27.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mecole HardmanBillsQ4 12:13(12:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson). Buffalo challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
22.0pts
Khalil ShakirBillsQ4 4:52(4:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid).
16.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bills at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Chiefs at 1 of 4 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 53% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Chiefs156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Swing −27.1 for BillsExpected points −3.26 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:47KC +27% win prob(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4th · 12:13KC +22% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson). Buffalo challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
4th · 4:52BUF +17% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid).
3rd · 1:00BUF +13% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to BUF 16 for 32 yards (23-M.Hyde).
3rd · 3:29BUF +12% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:55KC +11% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right. Thrown away, pressure on QB: C.Omenihu.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isiah Pacheco's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 14:24 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:11Tyler Bass·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
1st4:40Harrison Butker·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–3
4th14:24Isiah Pacheco·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBills
Chiefs2–5Bills
367Total yards368
8.5Yards per play4.7
53%Success rate58%
25%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays3
19First downs26
0Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Chiefs: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.14Bills: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Chiefs: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.07Bills: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 43 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bills’s 78 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Bills 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate, 4.3%, sat 14.4 points below their season number of 18.7% — they stayed blocked by 2.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −14.4 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−2.25× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bills8.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 14.4 points below their season mean of 18.7% and 2.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%50 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%50 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%50 snaps
79Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%50 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time84%42 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Heavy rotation74%37 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Heavy rotation72%36 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Heavy rotation64%32 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation60%30 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation50%25 snaps
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Tyler Bass−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 1:47 · Bills · 4th & 9 at KC 26 · gained nothing · -3.26 EP · −31.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
49%
Yards
729
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1858%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3753%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0971%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.5175%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR11+0.119%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.3827%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0840%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Chiefs0Bills3
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Chiefs 7
Chiefs3Bills3
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 28
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 25
2nd quarter50 plays
Chiefs3Bills9
Chiefs3Bills10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Chiefs 5
Chiefs6Bills10
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 10
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 40
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs12Bills10
Chiefs13Bills10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Bills 22
Chiefs13Bills16
Chiefs13Bills17
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 2
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Chiefs19Bills17
Chiefs20Bills17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Chiefs20Bills23
Chiefs20Bills24
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 16
4th quarter47 plays
Chiefs26Bills24
Chiefs27Bills24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.8 seconds
Drive ended2 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 3
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Bills 49
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
No good16 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Chiefs 26
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
