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2023 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 21, 2024 · New Era Field

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

27

Buffalo Bills

24

BUF -2.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓25°F

Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:47, KC +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑KC ↓
Q4 · 1:47KC 27 — BUF 24BUF ball · 4th & 9KC 59%

(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:47KC +27% win prob(1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  2. Q4 · 12:13KC +22% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson). Buffalo challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
  3. Q4 · 4:52BUF +17% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid).
  4. Q3 · 1:00BUF +13% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to BUF 16 for 32 yards (23-M.Hyde).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:11BUF Field goal

    (8:11) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: KC 0 — BUF 3
  2. Q1 · 4:40KC Field goal

    (4:40) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 3 — BUF 3
  3. Q2 · 13:37BUF Touchdown

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 3 — BUF 10
  4. Q2 · 9:15KC Field goal

    (9:15) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 6 — BUF 10
  5. Q2 · 3:38KC Touchdown

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 13 — BUF 10
  6. Q2 · 0:30BUF Touchdown

    (:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 13 — BUF 17
  7. Q3 · 11:55KC Touchdown

    (11:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 20 — BUF 17
  8. Q3 · 3:29BUF Touchdown

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 20 — BUF 24
  9. Q4 · 14:24KC Touchdown

    (14:24) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 27 — BUF 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsBills
Offensive plays4378
Total yards367368 (edge)
Yards per play8.5 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play0.24 (edge)0.14
Success rate53%58% (edge)
Dropback rate58%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)0.07
Third downs1/47/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps1926 (edge)
Sacks taken00
Turnovers00

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

17/23, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.1 expected points added · +18.2% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

26/39, 186 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

15 att, 97 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

12 att, 72 yds, 2 TD

8.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/6 for 75 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

2/4 for 62 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 3115706:52Field goal +3
2KCKC 258463:33Field goal +3
3BUFBUF 2513756:03Touchdown +7
4KCKC 2511594:20Field goal +3
5BUFBUF 257153:05Punt
6KCKC 356652:34Touchdown +7
7BUFBUF 2514753:07Touchdown +7
8KCKC 35200:26End of half
9KCKC 258753:12Touchdown +7
10BUFBUF 2517758:25Touchdown +7
11KCKC 2510754:03Touchdown +7
12BUFBUF 25571:27Turnover on downs
13KCBUF 322310:44Turnover on downs
14BUFBUF 204-21:24Punt
15KCKC 43652:22Punt
16BUFBUF 2016536:40Missed field goal
17KCKC 345111:43End of game

9 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes17/2321520014.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco15976.511.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire23115.501.8
Patrick Mahomes6193.200.9
Mecole Hardman1-1-1.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce5675229%7.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling2462019%3.2
Rashee Rice4447019%5.1
Noah Gray3316014%-0.0
Isiah Pacheco111405%1.8
Mecole Hardman11205%-6.7
Justin Watson01005%-1.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire11-105%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton580.000
Justin Reid630.000
Chamarri Conner720.000
Drue Tranquill430.000
Leo Chenal240.000
L'Jarius Sneed320.000
Trent McDuffie220.000
George Karlaftis220.001
Mike Pennel120.000
Willie Gay210.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen26/391861005.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen12726.028.0
James Cook18613.40-1.1
Ty Johnson7405.700.7
Stefon Diggs177.000.6
Damar Hamlin122.00-2.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dalton Kincaid5545014%3.0
Khalil Shakir7944124%6.3
Latavius Murray3427011%0.3
James Cook4521014%0.1
Stefon Diggs3821022%-3.0
Ty Johnson111403%0.8
Trent Sherfield13708%-0.6
Dawson Knox11403%0.9
Deonte Harty11303%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Poyer530.000
Taron Johnson420.000
Tyrel Dodson510.000
A.J. Klein140.000
Micah Hyde400.000
Damar Hamlin200.000
Dorian Williams110.000
Rasul Douglas110.000
Von Miller110.000
Dane Jackson010.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Closing total
45.5
KC moneyline
+120
BUF moneyline
-142

Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 51 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
25°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
KC 8 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Sean McDermott