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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 21, 2024 · Ford Field
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay23
BY 8final margin
LionsDetroit31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 at Detroit Lions 31. Final.
Lions -6 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Divisional Round
Detroit Lions 31, Buccaneers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:16, 3rd and 10, on Rachaad White — 18.9 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:16 · 3rd and 10
Rachaad White
Buccaneers
(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -6 and covered, winning by 8.
Detroit Lions 31–23. Biggest swing: Q3 0:16, Buccaneers +18.9% win probability on one snap.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Craig ReynoldsLionsQ3 3:51(3:51) 13-C.Reynolds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
Jahmyr GibbsLionsQ4 13:21(13:21) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Lions at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Buccaneers168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.9 for LionsExpected points −3.08 for LionsThe model had Buccaneers 10 points higher than the market did.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:16DET +19% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:21DET +14% win prob(13:21) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:51DET +11% win prob(3:51) 13-C.Reynolds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:57DET +9% win prob(6:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright to TB 26 for 29 yards (9-J.Tryon).
3rd · 11:31TB +8% win prob(11:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at DET 47 for -9 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
2nd · 0:27DET +7% win prob(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to DET 2 for 29 yards (1-C.Sutton).
2nd · 12:38DET +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahmyr Gibbs's 31-yard rushing touchdown with 13:21 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:28Michael Badgley·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
1st4:23Chase McLaughlin·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–3
2nd12:38Josh Reynolds·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+73–10
Lions ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Buccaneers: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Buccaneers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.18Lions: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.21Lions: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 61 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Lions’s 67 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Lions 5.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Lions 408-395 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's pass rate over expected, +17.3 pts, sat 21.3 points above their season number of −3.9 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Lions14.6%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 17.3 pts, 21.3 points above their season mean of -3.9 pts and 2.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Gibbs left+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:21) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:21 · Lions · 2nd & 2 at TB 31 · gained 31 · +2.91 EP · +16.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 92 yards from the TB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
799
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1274%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0973%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.2763%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.1682%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.6050%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 45
Buccaneers0Lions3
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 3
Buccaneers3Lions3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Lions 25
The period ended10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Buccaneers 44
2nd quarter48 plays
Buccaneers3Lions9
Buccaneers3Lions10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Buccaneers 9
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 44
No good9 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Lions 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 49
Buccaneers9Lions10
Buccaneers10Lions10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Lions 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Lions 38
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers10Lions16
Buccaneers10Lions17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Buccaneers 1
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Buccaneers16Lions17
Buccaneers17Lions17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Lions 12
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers17Lions23
Buccaneers17Lions24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
Buccaneers17Lions30
Buccaneers17Lions31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Buccaneers 9
Buccaneers23Lions31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Lions 16
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Buccaneers 41
Intercepted2 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 15
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
