2023 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 21, 2024 · Ford Field

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit LionsWinner

DET -6 ✓O 49.5 ✓DomeLions closed -6 and covered, winning by 8.

Detroit Lions 31–23. Biggest swing: Q3 0:16, DET +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:16TB 16 — DET 17TB ball · 3rd & 10DET 82%

(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:16DET +19% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 13:21DET +14% win prob(13:21) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:51DET +11% win prob(3:51) 13-C.Reynolds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 6:57DET +9% win prob(6:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright to TB 26 for 29 yards (9-J.Tryon).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:28DET Field goal
(8:28) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: TB 0 — DET 3
Q1 · 4:23TB Field goal
(4:23) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — DET 3
Q2 · 12:38DET Touchdown
(12:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 3 — DET 10
Q2 · 0:19TB Touchdown
(:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — DET 10
Q3 · 3:51DET Touchdown
(3:51) 13-C.Reynolds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — DET 17
Q3 · 0:16TB Touchdown
(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — DET 17
Q4 · 13:21DET Touchdown
(13:21) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — DET 24
Q4 · 6:27DET Touchdown
(6:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — DET 31
Q4 · 4:41TB Touchdown
(4:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TB 23 — DET 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Lions
Offensive plays	61	67
Total yards	408 (edge)	395
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	48%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	79%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	23	23
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Lions 408–395 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

26/41, 349 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

3.9 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

30/43, 287 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

9 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

4.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

9 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

8/12 for 147 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/14 for 77 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	5	7	0:46	Punt
2	TB	TB 20	5	17	3:06	Interception
3	DET	TB 41	8	24	2:43	Field goal +3
4	TB	TB 25	9	50	4:06	Field goal +3
5	DET	DET 25	16	75	6:46	Touchdown +7
6	TB	TB 25	5	19	2:52	Punt
7	DET	DET 20	8	24	2:57	Punt
8	TB	TB 13	9	55	4:20	Missed field goal
9	DET	DET 40	4	5	0:56	Punt
10	TB	TB 8	8	92	1:13	Touchdown +7
11	DET	DET 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
12	TB	TB 25	8	28	4:31	Punt
13	DET	DET 15	4	7	1:16	Punt
14	TB	TB 40	4	-4	1:02	Punt
15	DET	DET 36	11	64	4:23	Touchdown +7
16	TB	TB 25	9	65	3:38	Touchdown +7
17	DET	DET 25	7	75	1:57	Touchdown +7
18	TB	TB 25	5	6	1:01	Punt
19	DET	DET 11	11	89	5:50	Touchdown +7
20	TB	TB 25	11	75	1:45	Touchdown +6
21	DET	DET 25	7	25	2:38	Punt
22	TB	TB 10	2	5	0:26	Interception
23	DET	TB 28	3	0	1:33	End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	26/41	349	3	2	4	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	9	55	6.1	0.5
Chase Edmonds	4	19	4.8	-0.4
Baker Mayfield	2	15	7.5	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	8	12	147	1	31%	8.0
Cade Otton	5	8	65	1	21%	0.0
Chris Godwin	4	8	40	0	21%	-1.2
Rachaad White	4	5	36	1	13%	4.0
Trey Palmer	2	2	32	0	5%	1.7
Chase Edmonds	2	2	18	0	5%	0.6
David Moore	1	1	11	0	3%	0.6
Deven Thompkins	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	7	4	1.0	0
K.J. Britt	5	5	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	7	0	0.0	0
Zyon McCollum	5	1	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	4	1	0.0	3
Christian Izien	3	1	0.0	0
Ryan Neal	1	2	0.0	0
Joe Tryon	1	2	0.0	0
Calijah Kancey	1	1	1.0	1
YaYa Diaby	1	1	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	30/43	287	2	0	2	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jahmyr Gibbs	9	74	8.2	1	4.3
David Montgomery	10	33	3.3	0	-2.5
Jared Goff	6	6	1.0	0	-2.6
Craig Reynolds	1	1	1.0	1	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	8	14	77	1	33%	2.0
Sam LaPorta	9	11	65	0	26%	2.6
Jahmyr Gibbs	4	4	40	0	10%	1.3
Jameson Williams	2	4	35	0	10%	1.6
Brock Wright	1	1	29	0	2%	2.3
Josh Reynolds	2	3	27	1	7%	3.3
David Montgomery	3	4	14	0	10%	0.1
Jason Cabinda	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ifeatu Melifonwu	6	3	1.5	0	0
Alex Anzalone	5	1	0.0	0	0
Brian Branch	4	1	1.0	0	0
Derrick Barnes	3	1	0.0	1	1
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	1	3	0.5	0	0
Aidan Hutchinson	3	0	1.0	0	0
Kindle Vildor	2	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	1	1	0.0	0	1
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	1	0	0.0	1	1
John Cominsky	0	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -6
Closing total: 49.5
TB moneyline: +225
DET moneyline: -278

Lions closed -6 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 54 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: TB 6 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Dan Campbell