For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 300s tick · as of 6:01 PM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 28, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Conference Championship
It turned at Q3 5:15, 1st and 10, on Jahmyr Gibbs — 20.2 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 5:15, 49ers +20.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:15 · 1st and 10
Jahmyr Gibbs
49ers
(5:15) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 25 for no gain (31-T.Gipson). FUMBLES (31-T.Gipson), RECOVERED by SF-91-A.Armstead at DET 24.
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
49ers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.16 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.13 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(5:15) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 25 for no gain (31-T.Gipson). FUMBLES (31-T.Gipson), RECOVERED by SF-91-A.Armstead at DET 24.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Moody's 33-yard field goal with 9:56 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jake Moody33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+324–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by category49ers
Lions ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against 49ers’s 64 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, 49ers 5.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-4.4 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 72 snaps
49ers0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.5 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 80%
Tendencies room →Lions54.4%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 57 early downs
49ers51.9%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions18.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
49ers16.7%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 9% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Lions75.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.6 vs their 59.4%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
49ers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 63%
Tendencies room →Lions50.0%leaned — sent pressure · +14.6 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
49ers18.6%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions13.9%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
49ers11.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
DET's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 14.6 points above their season mean of 35.4% and 1.4 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
25/41, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.0 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
Passing · SF
20/31, 267 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.6 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jameson Williams banked 11.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 29.2 | +4.5 | 91% | 92% | 17% | 4% | 20 car, 90 yd, 2 TD · 4/5, 42 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.7 | +11.7 | 72% | 81% | 8% | 16% | 1 car, 42 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 19.3 | +2.3 | 43% | 35% | 5% | 2% | 15 car, 93 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.7 | −5.0 | 88% | 91% | 33% | 30% | 9/13, 97 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.6 | −1.7 | 77% | 89% | 30% | 14% | 3 car, 7 yd · 8/9, 89 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 267 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 48 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | −3.3 | 94% | 95% | 28% | 24% | 1 car, 2 yd · 7/11, 87 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.8 | −2.3 | 85% | 86% | 27% | 47% | 3/8, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 14.9 | −9.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/41, 273 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | −7.1 | 54% | 60% | 15% | 4% | 12 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 3/6, 11 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 6.7 | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 5.6 | −0.7 | 61% | 53% | 10% | 11% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/3, 33 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.4 | 97% | 92% | 10% | 12% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −4.3 | 92% | 91% | 10% | 21% | 1/4, 25 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.3 | 18% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.1 | 42% | 39% | 7% | 11% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:15) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 25 for no gain (31-T.Gipson). FUMBLES (31-T.Gipson), RECOVERED by SF-91-A.Armstead at DET 24.
Q3 5:15 · Lions · 1st & 10 at DET 25 · lost 1 · -5.57 EP · −17.2% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
Lions6
49ers0Lions749ers0Lions1349ers0Lions1449ers0Lions1449ers6Lions1449ers7Lions2049ers7Lions2149ers7Lions2449ers7Lions2449ers10Lions2449ers16Lions2449ers17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Lions2449ers23Lions2449ers24Lions2449ers27How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Lions2449ers33Lions2449ers34Lions3049ers34Lions3149ers34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/41 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 | −4.0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 9 | 13 | 97 | 0 | 33% | +4.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 11 | 87 | 0 | 28% | +5.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 20/31 | 267 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_21_DET_SF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 65 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 8% | +4.9 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 10% | −3.9 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 15% | −2.7 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Alualu | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alim McNeill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 90 |
| 4.5 |
| 2 |
| +3.4 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 | +5.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 8 | 9 | 89 | 0 | 30% | +2.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 8 | 68 | 1 | 27% | +4.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 17% | +0.5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 10% | +1.5 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Randy Gregory | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
