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2023 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 28, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Detroit Lions

31

San Francisco 49ersWinner

34

SF -7.5 no coverO 52.5 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 5:15, DET +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑DET ↓
Q3 · 5:15DET 24 — SF 17DET ball · 1st & 10DET 67%

(5:15) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 25 for no gain (31-T.Gipson). FUMBLES (31-T.Gipson), RECOVERED by SF-91-A.Armstead at DET 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 5:15DET +20% win prob(5:15) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 25 for no gain (31-T.Gipson). FUMBLES (31-T.Gipson), RECOVERED by SF-91-A.Armstead at DET 24.
  2. Q4 · 7:38DET +13% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.St. Brown.
  3. Q1 · 13:27SF +11% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Williams right end for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 6:29SF +10% win prob(6:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to DET 4 for 51 yards (29-K.Vildor).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:27DET Touchdown

    (13:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Williams right end for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — SF 0
  2. Q1 · 2:37DET Touchdown

    (2:37) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — SF 0
  3. Q2 · 13:52SF Touchdown

    (13:52) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — SF 7
  4. Q2 · 6:01DET Touchdown

    (6:01) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 21 — SF 7
  5. Q2 · 0:10DET Field goal

    (:10) 17-M.Badgley 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 24 — SF 7
  6. Q3 · 11:06SF Field goal

    (11:06) 4-J.Moody 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: DET 24 — SF 10
  7. Q3 · 5:22SF Touchdown

    (5:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — SF 17
  8. Q3 · 3:04SF Touchdown

    (3:04) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — SF 24
  9. Q4 · 9:56SF Field goal

    (9:56) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: DET 24 — SF 27
  10. Q4 · 3:06SF Touchdown

    (3:06) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — SF 34
  11. Q4 · 1:00DET Touchdown

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 9-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 31 — SF 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLions49ers
Offensive plays7264
Total yards442 (edge)417
Yards per play6.16.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.130.22 (edge)
Success rate50% (edge)47%
Dropback rate60%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.160.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.08 (edge)0.07
Third downs6/126/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)9
First downs gained on snaps27 (edge)23
Sacks taken22
Turnovers11

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

25/41, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.0 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

20/31, 267 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.6 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

15 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

20 att, 90 yds, 2 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Sam LaPortaTE

9/13 for 97 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

8/9 for 89 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 256751:42Touchdown +7
2SFSF 2513455:24Missed field goal
3DETDET 3812625:20Touchdown +7
4SFSF 2510753:45Touchdown +7
5DETDET 259293:32Punt
6SFSF 125121:40Interception
7DETSF 466462:43Touchdown +7
8SFSF 25500:55Punt
9DETDET 2917684:52Field goal +3
10SFSF 14200:07End of half
11SFSF 2510503:58Field goal +3
12DETDET 259424:04Turnover on downs
13SFSF 286721:41Touchdown +7
14DETDET 252-10:08Fumble
15SFDET 245242:07Touchdown +7
16DETDET 25511:01Punt
17SFSF 2011657:09Field goal +3
18DETDET 257452:20Turnover on downs
19SFSF 308704:30Touchdown +7
20DETDET 2513752:06Touchdown +7
21SFDET 44540:56Turnover on downs

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 75 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff25/412731027.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery15936.213.3
Jahmyr Gibbs12453.81-4.0
Jameson Williams14242.014.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown122.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Sam LaPorta91397033%4.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown71187028%5.0
Jameson Williams232518%4.9
Josh Reynolds1425010%-3.9
David Montgomery222005%1.6
Jahmyr Gibbs3611015%-2.7
Anthony Firkser11803%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell430.000
Alex Anzalone610.000
Kindle Vildor420.000
Malcolm Rodriguez510.011
Kerby Joseph320.000
Tyson Alualu220.500
Ifeatu Melifonwu210.500
Brian Branch210.000
Cameron Sutton300.001
Alim McNeill111.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy20/312671126.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey20904.523.4
Brock Purdy5489.605.1
Deebo Samuel372.30-0.4
Elijah Mitchell471.81-1.0
Kyle Juszczyk133.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel8989030%2.3
Brandon Aiyuk3868127%4.7
Christian McCaffrey4542017%0.5
Kyle Juszczyk2333010%1.5
George Kittle2327010%0.3
Jauan Jennings12807%0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner640.001
Ji'Ayir Brown550.000
Dre Greenlaw340.000
Ambry Thomas510.000
Tashaun Gipson510.001
Deommodore Lenoir230.000
Javon Hargrave130.000
Nick Bosa302.000
Chase Young300.000
Randy Gregory110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -7.5
Closing total
52.5
DET moneyline
+260
SF moneyline
-325

49ers closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 65 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
69°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
DET 7 days · SF 8 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Kyle Shanahan