2023 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 28, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -4.5 upsetU 44 ✓Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, KC +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 15:00KC 17 — BAL 7BAL ball · 2nd & 8KC 63%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 15:00KC +21% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback.
Q4 · 6:54KC +12% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at KC -5. Touchback.
Q2 · 9:33KC +12% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 29 for -7 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by KC-56-G.Karlaftis at BAL 33.
Q3 · 0:49BAL +11% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 10 for 54 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on BAL-4-Z.Flowers, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at KC 10.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:46KC Touchdown
(7:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — BAL 0
Q1 · 5:09BAL Touchdown
(5:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — BAL 7
Q2 · 10:59KC Touchdown
(10:59) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — BAL 7
Q2 · 0:08KC Field goal
(:08) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 17 — BAL 7
Q4 · 2:38BAL Field goal
(2:38) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: KC 17 — BAL 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Ravens
Offensive plays	70	56
Total yards	322	337 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	43% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	63%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Ravens outgained Chiefs 337–322 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

20/37, 272 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

30/39, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

24 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

-7.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

8 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

11/11 for 116 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/8 for 115 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	5	3	1:34	Punt
2	KC	KC 14	11	81	5:45	Touchdown +7
3	BAL	BAL 25	8	75	2:43	Touchdown +7
4	KC	KC 25	18	75	9:02	Touchdown +7
5	BAL	BAL 25	5	8	1:30	Fumble
6	KC	BAL 33	7	20	3:08	Turnover on downs
7	BAL	BAL 13	6	19	2:29	Punt
8	KC	KC 29	4	0	1:02	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 41	4	6	1:01	Punt
10	KC	KC 11	8	45	1:42	Field goal +3
11	BAL	BAL 25	2	0	0:04	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	5	7	1:25	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 22	4	4	1:22	Punt
14	KC	KC 22	9	33	5:08	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 20	8	41	4:34	Punt
16	KC	KC 7	4	4	1:42	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 36	5	78	0:57	Fumble
18	KC	KC 20	8	17	4:17	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 1	12	74	3:50	Interception
20	KC	KC 20	4	7	1:45	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 46	9	29	2:26	Field goal +3
22	KC	KC 25	7	33	2:34	End of game

5 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	30/39	241	1	0	2	7.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	24	68	2.8	1	-7.9
Patrick Mahomes	6	15	2.5	0	-0.9
Travis Kelce	1	5	5.0	0	0.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	11	11	116	1	31%	13.5
Rashee Rice	8	9	46	0	25%	1.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	2	38	0	6%	3.2
Justin Watson	1	2	16	0	6%	0.5
Isiah Pacheco	4	4	14	0	11%	-1.1
Noah Gray	2	5	8	0	14%	-2.8
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	2	3	0	6%	-1.4
Richie James	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Drue Tranquill	8	0	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	0	0.0	0
Nick Bolton	3	1	0.0	1
George Karlaftis	3	1	1.0	0
Justin Reid	3	1	1.0	0
Tershawn Wharton	1	2	1.0	0
Mike Edwards	2	1	0.0	0
Michael Danna	1	1	0.0	0
Jaylen Watson	2	0	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	2	0	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	20/37	272	1	1	4	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Jackson	8	54	6.8	3.7
Gus Edwards	3	20	6.7	1.2
Zay Flowers	2	4	2.0	-0.8
Justice Hill	3	3	1.0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	5	8	115	1	24%	-1.4
Nelson Agholor	1	3	39	0	9%	0.1
Justice Hill	4	7	34	0	21%	1.3
Odell Beckham	3	6	22	0	18%	2.0
Gus Edwards	1	1	16	0	3%	1.2
Isaiah Likely	2	3	16	0	9%	-2.8
Mark Andrews	2	2	15	0	6%	0.8
Lamar Jackson	1	1	13	0	3%	1.2
Rashod Bateman	1	3	2	0	9%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	4	11	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	9	2	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	6	3	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	6	1	0.0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	0	4	0.5	0
Ronald Darby	3	1	0.0	0
Brent Urban	1	2	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	1	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	3	0	0.0	1
Dan Chisena	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -4.5
Closing total: 44
KC moneyline: +180
BAL moneyline: -218

Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 27 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: KC 7 days · BAL 8 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs John Harbaugh