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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:00 PM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 28, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Conference Championship
It turned at Q4 15:00, 2nd and 8, on Zay Flowers — 20.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Chiefs +20.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 2nd and 8
Zay Flowers
Chiefs
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Isiah Pacheco's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:59 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryRavens
Chiefs ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 70 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 56 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Ravens 2.
Ravens outgained Chiefs 337-322 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 86.0%, sat 33.7 points above their season number of 52.4% — they passed early by 3.4 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · +3.4σ from their own normal
BAL's pass rate over expected, +13.1 pts, sat 13.6 points above their season number of −0.6 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.5 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · +2.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs3.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 70 snaps
Ravens13.1 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +13.6 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+2.49× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 90%
Tendencies room →Chiefs56.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 51 early downs
Ravens86.0%off script — passed early · +33.7 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+3.42× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 42%
Tendencies room →Chiefs13.6%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Ravens19.6%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.6 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens50.0%leaned — went for it · +33.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±18.8 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 65%
Tendencies room →Chiefs41.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.2 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Ravens18.2%right on their number · −5.5 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 35%
Tendencies room →Chiefs15.2%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Ravens15.9%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
BAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 86.0%, 33.7 points above their season mean of 52.4% and 3.4 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
20/37, 272 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.0 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected
Passing · KC
30/39, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.8 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 10.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 29.1 | +10.7 | 80% | 77% | 31% | 35% | 1 car, 5 yd · 11/11, 116 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay FlowersWR · Featured Receiver | 20.9 | +6.6 | 90% | 80% | 24% | 26% | 2 car, 4 yd · 5/8, 115 yd, 1 TD |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 18.6 | −1.1 | 100% | — | 3% | 0% | 20/37, 272 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 54 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.2 | −1.9 | 79% | 64% | 11% | 0% | 24 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 14 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 15.1 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/39, 241 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 15 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.6 | −1.5 | 89% | 86% | 25% | 18% | 8/9, 46 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Committee Back | 7.7 | −2.2 | 67% | 67% | 21% | 0% | 3 car, 3 yd · 4/7, 34 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +2.0 | 83% | 89% | 6% | 16% | 2/2, 38 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −4.8 | 59% | 59% | 18% | 29% | 3/6, 22 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −0.1 | 57% | 54% | 9% | 16% | 1/3, 39 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 4.6 | +1.8 | 33% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 20 yd · 1/1, 16 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −1.5 | 67% | 63% | 9% | 9% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.3 | 31% | 24% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −4.2 | 58% | 43% | 14% | 15% | 2/5, 8 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.6 | 44% | 55% | 6% | 9% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 2.4 | −1.0 | 21% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 3 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −3.9 | 64% | 61% | 9% | 15% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Dan ChisenaWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 21% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback.
Q4 15:00 · Ravens · 2nd & 8 at KC 9 · gained 8 · -5.23 EP · −18.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 86 yards from the KC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Chiefs6
Ravens0Chiefs7Ravens0Chiefs7Ravens6Chiefs7Ravens7Chiefs13Ravens7Chiefs14Ravens7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Chiefs17Ravens7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs17Ravens10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/39 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 24 | 68 | 2.8 | 1 | −7.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 11 | 11 | 116 | 1 | 31% | +13.5 |
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 25% | +1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drue Tranquill | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| George Karlaftis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/37 | 272 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_21_KC_BAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 27 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 6% | +3.2 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 11% | −1.1 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −2.8 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| Richie James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
| 54 |
| 6.8 |
| 0 |
| +3.7 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 8 | 115 | 1 | 24% | −1.4 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 21% | +1.3 |
| Odell Beckham | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 18% | +2.0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −2.8 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 4 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dan Chisena | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
