49ers 22 – Chiefs 25 (2023 Super Bowl) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability

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49ers 22 – Chiefs 25 (2023 Super Bowl) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game

Was this normal for them?

12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.

This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2023 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.

their week-to-week swingall 32 teams

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts

Over Expected room →

49ers0.5 pts

inside their normal wobble · +2.7 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 70 snaps

Chiefs2.3 pts

inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 79 snaps

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%

Tendencies room →

49ers52.6%

right on their number · +2.4 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 57 early downs

Chiefs66.1%

right on their number · +3.6 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 59 early downs

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 43%

Tendencies room →

49ers28.6%

inside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 42 dropbacks

Chiefs12.7%

right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 55 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 97%

Fourth Down room →

49ers33.3%

no read · no ruler yet — only 3 games of theirs this season

Chiefs25.0%

right on their number · −6.4 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%

Tendencies room →

49ers12.7%

inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 55 dropbacks

Chiefs45.2%

inside their normal wobble · +12.1 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 42 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 35%

Tendencies room →

49ers12.7%

inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 55 dropbacks

Chiefs23.8%

inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 42 dropbacks

Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was KC's blitz rate sent, 45.2% against a season mean of 33.1% — and KC swings 12.1 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.

The Game Day Roster

Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.

San Francisco 49ers

48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used

65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%75 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%75 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%75 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time95%71 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time89%67 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time84%63 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Heavy rotation72%54 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Heavy rotation59%44 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation57%43 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Heavy rotation53%40 snaps
55Jon FelicianoC · Rotational41%31 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational20%15 snaps
84Chris ConleyWR · Situational11%8 snaps
3Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational8%6 snaps
9Brayden WillisTE · Situational5%4 snaps
25Elijah MitchellRB · Situational5%4 snaps

Inactive · 7

Samuel WomackCBAlex BarrettDET.Y. McGillDTJalen GrahamILBBrandon AllenQBMatt PryorTRonnie BellWR

Dressed, never took a snap · 1

Sam DarnoldQB

Kansas City Chiefs

48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used

73Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%79 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%79 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%79 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%79 snaps
79Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%79 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Full-time85%67 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time85%67 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation77%61 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Heavy rotation73%58 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation56%44 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation51%40 snaps
12Mecole HardmanWR · Situational24%19 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Situational22%17 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Situational13%10 snaps
17Richie JamesWR · Situational10%8 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Situational5%4 snaps

Inactive · 6

Ekow Boye-DoeCBBJ ThompsonDEDarius HarrisILBLa'Mical PerineRBKadarius ToneyWRJustyn RossWR

Dressed, never took a snap · 2

Blaine GabbertQBSkyy MooreWR

The Opportunity Board

What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.

Share card

Jauan Jennings banked 11.1 more points than his own workload asked for.

21 points plotted

Player	Full PPR	Vs expected	Snap share	Routes	Targets	Air yards	Line
Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back	28.0	+5.5	95%	93%	22%	0%	22 car, 80 yd · 8/8, 80 yd, 1 TD
Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB	25.9	+0.4	100%	—	0%	—	34/46, 333 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 66 yd
Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver	19.0	+11.1	53%	57%	14%	6%	1/1, 21 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 42 yd, 1 TD
Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver	18.3	+1.7	85%	78%	24%	16%	9/10, 93 yd
Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB	15.4	−2.4	100%	—	0%	—	23/38, 255 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 12 yd
Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver	14.7	+6.8	24%	22%	7%	19%	3/3, 57 yd, 1 TD
Isiah PachecoRB · Bell Cow Back	13.2	−5.0	73%	62%	14%	0%	18 car, 59 yd · 6/6, 33 yd
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver	11.0	+1.8	77%	76%	12%	29%	3/5, 20 yd, 1 TD
Rashee RiceWR · Featured Receiver	10.4	−4.5	85%	80%	19%	4%	2 car, 5 yd · 6/8, 39 yd
Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver	8.4	−0.2	56%	49%	12%	25%	3/5, 54 yd
Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver	7.9	−4.3	89%	90%	16%	28%	3/6, 49 yd
Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver	7.1	−13.9	72%	76%	30%	39%	3 car, 8 yd · 3/11, 33 yd
Kyle JuszczykRB	5.3	+1.7	57%	45%	5%	4%	1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 31 yd
Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver	4.2	+1.2	51%	38%	5%	3%	2/2, 22 yd
Jerick McKinnonRB	3.5	+0.5	22%	24%	5%	0%	2/2, 15 yd
Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver	2.9	+0.9	—	—	—	—	6 snaps — too few to rate.
Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver	2.8	+1.1	11%	5%	3%	5%	1/1, 18 yd
George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver	2.4	−1.7	84%	86%	8%	9%	2/3, 4 yd
Elijah MitchellRB	0.8	−0.2	—	—	—	—	4 snaps — too few to rate.
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB	0.0	−0.5	—	—	—	—	4 snaps — too few to rate.
Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−1.3	10%	9%	2%	0%	0/1, 0 yd
Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	4 snaps — too few to rate.
Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	20%	12%	0%	—	No touches.

4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.

Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.

The Film Room · post-game

Post-game film: 207 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 201. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.

Possession by possession

The field rail

11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.

Every snap

Play stream

207 of 207 plays

Team

Quarter

Down

Play type

Expected points added

Event

Charted

Plays shown

207

EPA per play

+0.06

Success rate

42%

Yards

837

Who was on the field

Personnel groupings

Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.

Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0968%

49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR38-0.0250%

49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.1274%

Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1265%

Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.0622%

49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——

49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——

snapsepapass rate

207 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved

Every play

Ball

When

Play

Only

Who

207 plays

Bar length is win probability the play moved

1st quarter34 plays

How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders

Fumble lost6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 29

Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 33

Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 45

Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 21

The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Chiefs 33

2nd quarter47 plays

49ers3Chiefs0

Field goal2 plays

How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders

Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 9

Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 33

Punt4 plays

49ers9Chiefs0
49ers10Chiefs0

Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Chiefs 21

49ers10Chiefs3

Field goal18 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 9

The period ended3 plays

3rd quarter46 plays

Intercepted4 plays

Punt5 plays

Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 2 to the Chiefs 11

Punt4 plays

49ers10Chiefs6

Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the 49ers 39

Punt5 plays

Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 35

49ers10Chiefs12
49ers10Chiefs13

Touchdown2 plays

The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 44

4th quarter46 plays

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
49ers16Chiefs13

Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 10

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
49ers16Chiefs16

Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 3

49ers19Chiefs16

Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 35

How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
49ers19Chiefs19

Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 11

The period ended3 plays

Overtime34 plays

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
49ers22Chiefs19

Field goal17 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 9

How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
49ers22Chiefs25

Touchdown16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 3

Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published

Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Chiefs, every play.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	23/38	255	1	0	1	+6.2
Jauan Jennings	1/1	21	1	0	0	+2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	22	80	3.6	0	−10.2
Brock Purdy	3	12	4.0	0	+0.5
Deebo Samuel

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	8	8	80	1	22%	+4.3
Brandon Aiyuk	3	6	49	0	16%	+2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	8	4	0.0	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	7	4	0.0	1	1
Logan Ryan	3	4	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	34/46	333	2	1	3	+6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	9	10	93	0	24%	+4.5
Mecole Hardman	3	3	57	1	7%	+5.7
Justin Watson	3	5	54	0	12%	+4.0
Rashee Rice	6	8	39	0	19%	+1.2
Isiah Pacheco	6	6	33	0	14%	+0.4
Noah Gray	2	2	22	0	5%	+0.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	5	20	1	12%	−1.5
Jerick McKinnon	2	2	15	0	5%	+0.3
Richie James	0	1	0	0	2%	−1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	4	8	0.0	0
Justin Reid	4	5	0.5	0
Leo Chenal	3	3	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	3	3	0.0	1
George Karlaftis	2	3	0.5	0
Mike Pennel	1	4	0.0	0
Willie Gay	3	1	0.0	0
Chris Jones	2	2	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	1	0.0	1
Michael Danna	1	2	0.0	0

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Kansas City Chiefs 25, 49ers 22 — on the last possessions.

How the game was won

Highest-leverage plays

The margin ledger

Situational splits

The Read

Was this normal for them?

The Game Day Roster

Top performers

The Opportunity Board

Every snap, where it happened

The field rail

Play stream

Personnel groupings

Every play

1st quarter34 plays

2nd quarter47 plays

3rd quarter46 plays

4th quarter46 plays

Overtime34 plays

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Rushing

Take it with you

Betting context

Game environment

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)