2023 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 11, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

SF -1.5 upset47 pushDome49ers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 7:25, SF +51% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 7:25SF 22 — KC 19SF ball · 4th & 4SF 99%

(7:25) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 7:25SF +51% win prob(7:25) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
OT · 6:05KC +24% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right tackle to KC 42 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q3 · 2:42KC +21% win prob(2:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to SF 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 28-D.Luter MUFFS catch, touched at SF 19, RECOVERED by KC-35-Ja.Watson at SF 16.
OT · 2:07KC +21% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to SF 13 for 19 yards (31-T.Gipson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:53SF Field goal
(14:53) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 3 — KC 0
Q2 · 4:32SF Touchdown
(4:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Jennings pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-T.McDuffie]. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — KC 0
Q2 · 0:23KC Field goal
(:23) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: SF 10 — KC 3
Q3 · 5:06KC Field goal
(5:06) 7-H.Butker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: SF 10 — KC 6
Q3 · 2:32KC Touchdown
(2:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — KC 13
Q4 · 11:27SF Touchdown
(11:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 16 — KC 13
Q4 · 5:49KC Field goal
(5:49) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: SF 16 — KC 16
Q4 · 1:57SF Field goal
(1:57) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 19 — KC 16
Q4 · 0:06KC Field goal
(:06) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: SF 19 — KC 19
OT · 7:25SF Field goal
(7:25) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 22 — KC 19
OT · 0:06KC Touchdown
(:06) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 12-M.Hardman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 22 — KC 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	70	79
Total yards	383	455 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	44%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35 (edge)	-0.37
Third downs	3/12	9/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

34/46, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.1 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

23/38, 255 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.2 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

22 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

-10.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

9 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

9/10 for 93 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

8/8 for 80 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	6	48	2:45	Fumble
2	KC	KC 27	4	6	1:59	Punt
3	SF	SF 24	5	36	3:48	Punt
4	KC	KC 11	5	10	2:35	Punt
5	SF	SF 17	10	41	4:05	Field goal +3
6	KC	KC 25	6	64	2:49	Fumble
7	SF	SF 8	5	6	2:43	Punt
8	KC	KC 20	4	7	1:27	Punt
9	SF	SF 33	9	52	3:26	Touchdown +7
10	KC	KC 25	14	70	4:03	Field goal +3
11	SF	SF 25	2	6	0:20	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	4	10	1:30	Interception
13	SF	KC 44	4	4	0:59	Punt
14	KC	KC 2	4	9	1:46	Punt
15	SF	SF 36	4	-1	1:43	Punt
16	KC	KC 14	9	47	4:01	Field goal +3
17	SF	SF 25	5	0	1:02	Punt
18	KC	KC 27	4	8	1:27	Punt
19	KC	SF 16	2	16	0:04	Touchdown +7
20	SF	SF 25	14	75	6:06	Touchdown +6
21	KC	KC 25	13	69	5:36	Field goal +3
22	SF	SF 25	8	40	3:53	Field goal +3
23	KC	KC 25	12	64	1:50	Field goal +3
24	SF	SF 25	2	0	0:03	Turnover on downs
25	SF	SF 25	14	76	7:38	Field goal +3
26	KC	KC 25	14	75	7:19	Touchdown +6

11 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	23/38	255	1	0	1	6.2
Jauan Jennings	1/1	21	1	0	0	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	22	80	3.6	-10.2
Brock Purdy	3	12	4.0	0.5
Deebo Samuel	3	8	2.7	-1.0
Elijah Mitchell	2	8	4.0	1.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	2.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	8	8	80	1	22%	4.3
Brandon Aiyuk	3	6	49	0	16%	2.4
Jauan Jennings	4	5	42	1	14%	3.1
Deebo Samuel	3	11	33	0	30%	-4.6
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	31	0	5%	2.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	19	0	3%	1.2
Chris Conley	1	1	18	0	3%	2.6
George Kittle	2	3	4	0	8%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	8	4	0.0	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	7	4	0.0	1	1
Logan Ryan	3	4	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	4	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	3	3	1.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	3	2	0.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Oren Burks	3	2	0.0	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	1	3	0.0	0	1
Javon Kinlaw	2	2	0.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	34/46	333	2	1	3	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	9	66	7.3	3.0
Isiah Pacheco	18	59	3.3	-10.3
Rashee Rice	2	5	2.5	0.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	9	10	93	0	24%	4.5
Mecole Hardman	3	3	57	1	7%	5.7
Justin Watson	3	5	54	0	12%	4.0
Rashee Rice	6	8	39	0	19%	1.2
Isiah Pacheco	6	6	33	0	14%	0.4
Noah Gray	2	2	22	0	5%	0.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	5	20	1	12%	-1.5
Jerick McKinnon	2	2	15	0	5%	0.3
Richie James	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	4	8	0.0	0
Justin Reid	4	5	0.5	0
Leo Chenal	3	3	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	3	3	0.0	1
George Karlaftis	2	3	0.5	0
Mike Pennel	1	4	0.0	0
Willie Gay	3	1	0.0	0
Chris Jones	2	2	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	1	0.0	1
Michael Danna	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -1.5
Closing total: 47
SF moneyline: -120
KC moneyline: +100

49ers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: SF 14 days · KC 14 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Andy Reid