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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 1
It turned at Q1 5:33, 1st and 10, on Josh Allen — 21.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 34–28. Biggest swing: Q1 5:33, Cardinals +21.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:33 · 1st and 10
Josh Allen
Cardinals
(5:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at ARI 30 for -11 yards (98-R.Lopez). FUMBLES (98-R.Lopez) [98-R.Lopez], RECOVERED by ARI-93-J.Jones at ARI 29.
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against Bills at 3 of 9 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.16 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at +0.06 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(5:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at ARI 30 for -11 yards (98-R.Lopez). FUMBLES (98-R.Lopez) [98-R.Lopez], RECOVERED by ARI-93-J.Jones at ARI 29.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Khalil Shakir's 11-yard touchdown catch with 2:43 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Khalil Shakir11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh AllenLead never changed again+717–2411 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Bills’s 57 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, Bills 7.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, was the highest of the 25 team-games charted in week 1 — 16.7 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-1.8 ptsright on their number · +1.0 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 59 snaps
Bills-7.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 86%
Tendencies room →Cardinals57.8%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 45 early downs
Bills47.8%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 52.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cardinals23.7%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bills13.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.3%.
Bills66.7%leaned — went for it · +25.0 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 59%
Tendencies room →Cardinals23.3%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills28.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 29%
Tendencies room →Cardinals10.0%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills15.8%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 25.0 points above their season mean of 41.7% and 1.0 times their own 24.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
18/23, 232 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.2 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
21/31, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.2 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Josh Allen banked 11.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 31.2 | +11.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 232 yd, 2 TD · 9 car, 39 yd, 2 TD |
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.3 | +2.0 | 67% | 58% | 13% | 0% | 16 car, 50 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 33 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 14.2 | −0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 162 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 57 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 13.3 | −0.7 | 61% | 50% | 13% | 1% | 19 car, 71 yd · 3/3, 32 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +8.4 | 53% | 70% | 13% | 7% | 3/3, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Greg DortchWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.1 | −1.4 | 61% | 68% | 26% | 37% | 1 car, 4 yd · 6/8, 47 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +5.5 | 58% | 67% | 9% | 14% | 2/2, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Keon ColemanWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −0.5 | 73% | 90% | 22% | 28% | 4/5, 51 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.0 | −6.1 | 85% | 89% | 29% | 39% | 5/9, 30 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +2.6 | 80% | 92% | 6% | 13% | 1/2, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 4.6 | +1.7 | 21% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 3.7 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.7 | 27% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | 0.0 | 58% | 53% | 9% | 11% | 1/2, 23 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.2 | 41% | 29% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.4 | 21% | 13% | 9% | 33% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Trey BensonRB | 2.8 | −0.6 | 13% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 13 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.0 | 84% | 87% | 9% | 1% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Marvin HarrisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.4 | 90% | 95% | 10% | 16% | 1/3, 4 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 0.7 | −1.8 | 23% | 30% | 4% | 2% | 2 car, 7 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:55 · Bills · 3rd & 10 at ARI 11 · gained 11 · +2.98 EP · +15.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals6
Bills0Cardinals7Bills0How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Cardinals10Bills0Cardinals10Bills3Cardinals16Bills3Cardinals17Bills3Cardinals17Bills9Cardinals17Bills10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cardinals17Bills16Cardinals17Bills17How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Cardinals17Bills23Cardinals17Bills24Cardinals20Bills24Cardinals20Bills30Cardinals20Bills31Cardinals26Bills31Cardinals28Bills31Cardinals28Bills34How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/31 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 0 | +7.9 |
| James Conner | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 | −3.0 |
| Trey Benson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 6 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 26% | +2.5 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/23 | 232 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +9.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_01_ARI_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 62 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 18.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 3 |
| 13 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| +1.6 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 29% | +0.5 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +0.9 |
| Trey Benson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6% | +2.2 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −1.1 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Zaven Collins | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Owen Pappoe | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kei'Trel Clark | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 2 | +8.6 |
| Ray Davis | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 22% | +3.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 13% | +3.9 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 13% | +2.4 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 9% | +3.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 9% | −0.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 6 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damar Hamlin | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marcus Ingram | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
