2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · New Era Field

Arizona Cardinals

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -6.5 no coverO 46 ✓20 mph windBills closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 34–28. Biggest swing: Q1 5:33, ARI +22% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:33ARI 7 — BUF 0BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 70%

(5:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at ARI 30 for -11 yards (98-R.Lopez). FUMBLES (98-R.Lopez) [98-R.Lopez], RECOVERED by ARI-93-J.Jones at ARI 29.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:33ARI +22% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at ARI 30 for -11 yards (98-R.Lopez). FUMBLES (98-R.Lopez) [98-R.Lopez], RECOVERED by ARI-93-J.Jones at ARI 29.
Q3 · 5:32ARI +16% win prob(5:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 19 for -5 yards (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau) [50-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at ARI 21.
Q4 · 0:32ARI +15% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 4-G.Dortch (46-J.Ingram). Receiver and coverage along sideline at BUF 2.
Q3 · 9:55BUF +13% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:54ARI Touchdown
(7:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 7 — BUF 0
Q2 · 15:00ARI Field goal
(15:00) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — BUF 0
Q2 · 9:51BUF Field goal
(9:51) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — BUF 3
Q2 · 2:44ARI Touchdown
(2:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — BUF 3
Q2 · 0:25BUF Touchdown
(:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — BUF 10
Q3 · 9:55BUF Touchdown
(9:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — BUF 17
Q3 · 2:43BUF Touchdown
(2:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — BUF 24
Q4 · 13:35ARI Field goal
(13:35) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-74-I.Adams has returned to the game.
Score after this play: ARI 20 — BUF 24
Q4 · 8:51BUF Touchdown
(8:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 20 — BUF 31
Q4 · 8:44ARI Touchdown
2-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to ARI 4. 20-D.Dallas for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: ARI 28 — BUF 31
Q4 · 2:00BUF Field goal
(2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: ARI 28 — BUF 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Bills
Offensive plays	60	57
Total yards	273	353 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.06	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	38%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16	0.51 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	18	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

18/23, 232 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

21/31, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.2 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

19 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

5 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

7.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Keon ColemanWR

4/5 for 51 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Greg DortchWR

6/8 for 47 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 30	15	60	7:13	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	ARI 45	5	16	2:23	Fumble
3	ARI	ARI 29	10	60	5:27	Field goal +3
4	BUF	BUF 30	10	60	5:10	Field goal +3
5	ARI	ARI 29	15	71	7:07	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	BUF 30	9	65	2:21	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 4	2	0	0:19	End of half
8	BUF	BUF 40	12	70	5:09	Touchdown +7
9	ARI	ARI 30	5	-4	1:58	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 31	4	3	1:37	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 21	2	0	0:51	Fumble
12	BUF	ARI 21	6	21	2:48	Touchdown +7
13	ARI	ARI 30	9	58	4:05	Field goal +3
14	BUF	BUF 30	12	75	4:48	Touchdown +7
15	ARI	—	2	2	0:13	Defensive touchdown +8
16	BUF	BUF 30	8	27	3:14	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 19	4	-5	0:47	Punt
18	BUF	ARI 42	5	16	2:34	Field goal +3
19	ARI	ARI 40	10	31	1:30	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 29	1	0	0:26	End of game

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	21/31	162	1	0	4	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyler Murray	5	57	11.4	0	7.9
James Conner	16	50	3.1	1	-3.0
Trey Benson	3	13	4.3	0	0.2
Greg Dortch	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Greg Dortch	6	8	47	0	26%	2.5
James Conner	3	4	33	0	13%	1.6
Trey McBride	5	9	30	0	29%	0.5
Emari Demercado	2	2	26	0	6%	1.6
Elijah Higgins	2	2	12	0	6%	0.9
Trey Benson	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Michael Wilson	1	2	5	1	6%	2.2
Marvin Harrison	1	3	4	0	10%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Budda Baker	3	6	0.0	0
Kyzir White	3	6	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	7	1	0.0	1
Zaven Collins	3	4	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	3	2	0.0	0
Owen Pappoe	1	3	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	1	3	0.0	0
Kei'Trel Clark	1	1	1.0	0
Garrett Williams	2	0	0.0	0
Krys Barnes	1	1	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	18/23	232	2	0	2	9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	19	71	3.7	0	-3.6
Josh Allen	9	39	4.3	2	8.6
Ray Davis	3	13	4.3	0	-0.7
Ty Johnson	2	7	3.5	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keon Coleman	4	5	51	0	22%	3.3
Khalil Shakir	3	3	42	1	13%	3.9
James Cook	3	3	32	0	13%	2.4
Mack Hollins	2	2	25	1	9%	3.9
Dawson Knox	1	2	23	0	9%	1.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	2	19	0	9%	-0.2
Curtis Samuel	2	2	15	0	9%	0.5
Ray Davis	1	1	14	0	4%	1.9
Dalton Kincaid	1	2	11	0	9%	0.3
Ty Johnson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Terrel Bernard	8	1	0.0	0
Dorian Williams	6	3	0.0	0
Cameron Lewis	6	3	0.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	6	0	3.0	0
Taylor Rapp	3	2	0.0	1
Damar Hamlin	1	2	0.0	0
Christian Benford	2	0	0.0	0
Ja'Marcus Ingram	1	1	0.0	1
Rasul Douglas	1	1	0.0	0
Von Miller	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -6.5
Closing total: 46
ARI moneyline: +250
BUF moneyline: -310

Bills closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 62 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 20 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: ARI 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Sean McDermott

Wind at 20 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.