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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 5, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore20
BY 7final margin
ChiefsKansas City27
Baltimore Ravens 20 at Kansas City Chiefs 27. Final.
Chiefs -3 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Ravens 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 2nd and 17, on Isaiah Likely — 13.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 2nd and 17
Isaiah Likely
Ravens
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Ravens +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lamar JacksonChiefsQ2 14:53(14:53) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones), RECOVERED by KC-97-F.Anudike-Uzomah at BAL 14.
11.4pts
Isaiah LikelyChiefsQ4 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 80-I.Likely (32-N.Bolton). ** Injury Update: BAL-80-I.Likely has returned to the game.
10.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at +0.00 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Ravens at +0.08 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Ravens165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.3 for ChiefsExpected points −5.62 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00KC +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:53BAL +11% win prob(14:53) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones), RECOVERED by KC-97-F.Anudike-Uzomah at BAL 14.
4th · 0:05BAL +10% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 80-I.Likely (32-N.Bolton). ** Injury Update: BAL-80-I.Likely has returned to the game.
1st · 6:23KC +10% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice to BAL 36 for 16 yards (0-R.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-0-R.Smith, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 36.
4th · 10:32KC +9% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 1-X.Worthy for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:43KC +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 32-yard field goal with 13:40 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th10:32Xavier Worthy·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+717–27
4th4:58Justin Tucker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryChiefs
Ravens6–1Chiefs
452Total yards354
6.1Yards per play7.2
54%Success rate45%
50%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
24First downs19
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Ravens: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.21Chiefs: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Ravens: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.39Chiefs: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Ravens: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.11Chiefs: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 74 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 49 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 3.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chiefs3.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.2%, 20.1 points above their season mean of 47.1% and 1.5 times their own 13.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Andrew VorheesG · Every snap100%80 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%80 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%80 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%80 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time89%71 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Full-time84%67 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Heavy rotation75%60 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation74%59 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation66%53 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Heavy rotation54%43 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational46%37 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational38%30 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Rotational25%20 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Situational24%19 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational11%9 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Situational10%8 snaps
3Deonte HartyWR · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Nick SamacCT.J. TampaCBBrent UrbanDEBeau BradeFSMalaesala Aumavae-LauluGAdisa IsaacOLBDevontez WalkerWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 80-I.Likely (32-N.Bolton). ** Injury Update: BAL-80-I.Likely has returned to the game.
Q4 0:05 · Ravens · 3rd & goal at KC 10 · gained nothing · -2.49 EP · −15.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 81 yards from the KC 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
49%
Yards
805
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR39+0.1759%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.4578%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0250%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.1076%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3640%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.1229%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Ravens6Chiefs0
Ravens7Chiefs0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chiefs 5
Ravens7Chiefs6
Ravens7Chiefs7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Ravens 21
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to midfield
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Ravens 46
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Ravens7Chiefs10
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 13
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Ravens 30 to midfield
Ravens7Chiefs13
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Ravens 13
No good11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chiefs 35
Intercepted1 play
Ravens10Chiefs13
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Chiefs 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Ravens10Chiefs19
Ravens10Chiefs20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Ravens 1
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chiefs 44
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Ravens 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Chiefs 42
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.8 seconds
Ravens16Chiefs20
Ravens17Chiefs20
Touchdown2 plays
Ravens17Chiefs26
Ravens17Chiefs27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Ravens 35
Ravens20Chiefs27
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chiefs 14
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.3 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Chiefs 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3
Closing total
46
Ravens moneyline
+124
Chiefs moneyline
-148
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46; the game landed 47 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Andy Reid
(:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to KC 10 for 38 yards (6-B.Cook).
1st · 11:49KC +8% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 33 for 19 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
2nd · 1:50BAL +7% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 4-R.Rice INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Smith at BAL 49. 0-R.Smith to BAL 49 for no gain (4-R.Rice).
