For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 5, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

20

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

27

KC -3 ✓O 46 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, KC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑BAL ↓
Q4 · 15:00BAL 16 — KC 20BAL ball · 2nd & 17KC 86%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 15:00KC +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 14:53BAL +11% win prob(14:53) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones), RECOVERED by KC-97-F.Anudike-Uzomah at BAL 14.
  3. Q4 · 0:05BAL +10% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 80-I.Likely (32-N.Bolton). ** Injury Update: BAL-80-I.Likely has returned to the game.
  4. Q1 · 6:23KC +10% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice to BAL 36 for 16 yards (0-R.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-0-R.Smith, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 36.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:18BAL Touchdown

    (8:18) 22-D.Henry right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 0
  2. Q1 · 6:02KC Touchdown

    (6:02) 1-X.Worthy right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 7
  3. Q2 · 13:40KC Field goal

    (13:40) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 10
  4. Q2 · 5:47KC Field goal

    (5:47) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — KC 13
  5. Q2 · 0:05BAL Field goal

    (:05) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — KC 13
  6. Q3 · 11:38KC Touchdown

    (11:38) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — KC 20
  7. Q4 · 15:00BAL Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — KC 20
  8. Q4 · 10:32KC Touchdown

    (10:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 1-X.Worthy for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — KC 27
  9. Q4 · 4:58BAL Field goal

    (4:58) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — KC 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensChiefs
Offensive plays7449
Total yards452 (edge)354
Yards per play6.17.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.080.21 (edge)
Success rate54% (edge)45%
Dropback rate70%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.000.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.11
Third downs7/14 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)19
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers11

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

20/28, 291 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

11.1 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

26/41, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.5 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16 att, 122 yds, 0 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

13 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

9/12 for 111 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

7/9 for 103 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 3013756:46Touchdown +7
2KCKC 337522:19Touchdown +7
3BALBAL 306203:00Punt
4KCKC 106343:02Punt
5BALBAL 201-60:09Fumble
6KCBAL 144111:07Field goal +3
7BALBAL 307313:58Turnover on downs
8KCKC 498433:55Field goal +3
9BALBAL 308403:54Missed field goal
10KCKC 43100:06Interception
11BALBAL 4910441:41Field goal +3
12KCKC 30200:03End of half
13KCKC 198773:32Touchdown +7
14BALBAL 309253:04Punt
15KCKC 1010504:47Punt
16BALBAL 208903:50Touchdown +7
17KCKC 3010704:22Touchdown +7
18BALBAL 3014565:31Field goal +3
19KCKC 307173:04Punt
20BALBAL 1311771:50End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson26/41273101-2.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson161227.605.0
Derrick Henry13463.512.2
Zay Flowers2147.000.8
Justice Hill133.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Likely912111130%4.5
Rashod Bateman2553013%1.5
Justice Hill6852020%2.9
Zay Flowers61037025%-4.1
Mark Andrews221405%0.3
Nelson Agholor11603%0.1
Derrick Henry02005%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith430.011
Trenton Simpson230.501
Odafe Oweh310.000
Brandon Stephens400.000
Marcus Williams310.001
Kyle Hamilton120.000
Michael Pierce120.000
Nnamdi Madubuike020.500
Malik Harrison110.000
Travis Jones200.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes20/2829111211.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco15453.01-3.0
Xavier Worthy12121.012.2
Patrick Mahomes231.501.0
Carson Steele231.50-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashee Rice79103033%4.2
Xavier Worthy2347111%3.5
Noah Gray3337011%2.2
Travis Kelce3434015%3.5
Isiah Pacheco2333011%1.8
Justin Watson112504%1.5
Samaje Perine121007%-0.7
Patrick Mahomes11204%-0.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster01004%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaylen Watson740.001
Nick Bolton340.001
Justin Reid610.000
Bryan Cook510.000
Leo Chenal240.002
Chamarri Conner600.000
Drue Tranquill310.000
Michael Danna310.000
Trent McDuffie310.000
Tershawn Wharton210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -3
Closing total
46
BAL moneyline
+124
KC moneyline
-148

Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 46; the game landed 47 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
67°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
BAL 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Andy Reid