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Carolina Panthers 10 at New Orleans Saints 47. Final.
Saints -3.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 1
New Orleans Saints 47, Panthers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:16, 3rd and 4, on Rashid Shaheed — 12.6 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:16 · 3rd and 4
Rashid Shaheed
Saints
(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 37.
New Orleans Saints 47–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, Saints +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alvin KamaraSaintsQ1 14:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 33 for 9 yards (13-T.Hill; 94-A.Robinson).
3.7pts
Will HarrisSaintsQ1 12:02(12:02) 9-B.Young pass deep middle intended for 5-Dio.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 5-W.Harris at CAR 47. 5-W.Harris to CAR 40 for 7 yards (50-R.Hunt).
7.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.72 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.49 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Panthers159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.6 for SaintsExpected points +5.36 for SaintsThe model had Panthers 6 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:16NO +13% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:02CAR +7% win prob(12:02) 9-B.Young pass deep middle intended for 5-Dio.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 5-W.Harris at CAR 47. 5-W.Harris to CAR 40 for 7 yards (50-R.Hunt).
1st · 14:54NO +4% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 33 for 9 yards (13-T.Hill; 94-A.Robinson).
2nd · 6:15CAR +4% win prob(6:15) 15-J.Mingo left end to CAR 40 for 3 yards (32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (32-T.Mathieu), touched at CAR 44, RECOVERED by NO-32-T.Mathieu at CAR 43.
1st · 14:16CAR +3% win prob(14:16) 7-T.Hill left tackle to NO 35 for 2 yards (94-A.Robinson).
1st · 7:01NO +3% win prob(7:01) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 30 for 9 yards (2-M.Jackson, 47-J.Jewell).
1st · 10:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashid Shaheed's 59-yard touchdown catch with 12:16 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.49Panthers: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.21Saints: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Panthers: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.26Saints: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.72Panthers: −0.72 expected points added per play
+0.17Saints: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 55 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Saints’s 62 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Saints 6.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Saints15.4%
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteNO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 41.0%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 24.1% and 2.0 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%59 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%59 snaps
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%59 snaps
50Robert HuntG · Every snap100%59 snaps
63Austin CorbettC · Every snap100%59 snaps
9Bryce YoungQB · Full-time92%54 snaps
0Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Heavy rotation69%41 snaps
5Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
17Xavier LegetteWR · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
15Jonathan MingoWR · Heavy rotation56%33 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
6Miles SandersRB · Rotational37%22 snaps
81Jordan MatthewsTE · Rotational34%20 snaps
83David MooreWR · Rotational32%19 snaps
34Mike BooneRB · Situational8%5 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Situational8%5 snaps
84Feleipe FranksTE · Situational7%4 snaps
70Brady ChristensenG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew RaymCShemar BartholomewCBLaBryan RayDEJammie RobinsonSSJarrett KingstonTMessiah SwinsonTETommy TrembleTE
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 8 inactive
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%66 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Full-time91%60 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Full-time91%60 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
22Rashid ShaheedWR · Heavy rotation68%45 snaps
62Lucas PatrickC · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
67Landon YoungT · Rotational47%31 snaps
11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Rotational44%29 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Rotational36%24 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational35%23 snaps
21Jamaal WilliamsRB · Rotational33%22 snaps
7Taysom HillTE · Rotational32%21 snaps
84Mason TiptonWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
74Oli UdohG · Situational9%6 snaps
16Bub MeansWR · Situational9%6 snaps
3Jake HaenerQB · Situational9%6 snaps
33Jordan MimsRB · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 8
John RidgewayDTKhalen SaundersDTNouredin NouiliGJaylan FordLBD'Marco JacksonMLBSpencer RattlerQBDallin HolkerTEA.T. PerryWR
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:16 · Saints · 3rd & 4 at NO 41 · gained 59 · +5.36 EP · +15.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 79 yards from the NO 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
572
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3573%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.3350%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1341%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.1938%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-1.1233%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Panthers0Saints6
Panthers0Saints7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 41
Intercepted2 plays
Panthers0Saints10
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Panthers 34
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 41
Panthers0Saints16
Panthers0Saints17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Panthers 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 41 to midfield
Panthers0Saints20
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Panthers 26
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 37
Panthers0Saints23
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Panthers 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 19
Panthers0Saints29
Panthers0Saints30
Touchdown2 plays
Panthers3Saints30
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Saints 25
3rd quarter40 plays
Intercepted5 plays
Panthers3Saints36
Panthers3Saints37
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Panthers 1
Panthers9Saints37
Panthers10Saints37
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 3
The period ended11 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Panthers 31
4th quarter42 plays
Panthers10Saints40
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 34
Panthers10Saints46
Panthers10Saints47
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 14
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Saints 19
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 27
Turnover on downs4 plays, from midfield to the Saints 45
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Panthers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 19
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Saints 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
