2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Carolina Panthers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -3.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 37.

New Orleans Saints 47–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, NO +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:16CAR 0 — NO 6NO ball · 3rd & 4NO 61%

(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:16NO +13% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:02CAR +7% win prob(12:02) 9-B.Young pass deep middle intended for 5-Dio.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 5-W.Harris at CAR 47. 5-W.Harris to CAR 40 for 7 yards (50-R.Hunt).
Q1 · 14:54NO +4% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 33 for 9 yards (13-T.Hill; 94-A.Robinson).
Q2 · 6:15CAR +4% win prob(6:15) 15-J.Mingo left end to CAR 40 for 3 yards (32-T.Mathieu). FUMBLES (32-T.Mathieu), touched at CAR 44, RECOVERED by NO-32-T.Mathieu at CAR 43.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:16NO Touchdown
(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 7
Q1 · 10:09NO Field goal
(10:09) 19-B.Grupe 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 10
Q1 · 1:32NO Touchdown
(1:32) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 17
Q2 · 7:08NO Field goal
(7:08) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 20
Q2 · 2:12NO Field goal
(2:12) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 23
Q2 · 1:24NO Touchdown
(1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — NO 30
Q2 · 0:03CAR Field goal
(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — NO 30
Q3 · 8:30NO Touchdown
(8:30) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — NO 37
Q3 · 5:00CAR Touchdown
(5:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to NO 1 for 2 yards (29-P.Adebo). FUMBLES (29-P.Adebo), recovered by CAR-15-J.Mingo at NO 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — NO 37
Q4 · 13:12NO Field goal
(13:12) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: CAR 10 — NO 40
Q4 · 10:43NO Touchdown
(10:43) 21-Ja.Williams left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — NO 47

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Saints
Offensive plays	55	62
Total yards	193	379 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.49	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	29%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.72	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.49.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

19/23, 200 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

13/30, 161 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-17.8 expected points added · -15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

15 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Jamaal WilliamsRB

11 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

3/5 for 73 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

3/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 24	7	76	2:52	Touchdown +7
2	CAR	CAR 27	2	0	0:14	Interception
3	NO	CAR 40	4	6	1:50	Field goal +3
4	CAR	CAR 26	7	15	3:03	Punt
5	NO	NO 21	12	79	5:38	Touchdown +7
6	CAR	CAR 25	8	17	4:13	Punt
7	NO	NO 26	9	33	5:07	Field goal +3
8	CAR	CAR 33	3	7	0:58	Fumble
9	NO	CAR 43	7	19	3:57	Field goal +3
10	CAR	CAR 15	5	-5	0:44	Punt
11	NO	CAR 16	2	16	0:06	Touchdown +7
12	CAR	CAR 30	9	40	1:18	Field goal +3
13	CAR	CAR 26	4	-2	1:07	Interception
14	NO	NO 43	10	56	5:26	Touchdown +7
15	CAR	CAR 25	10	60	3:32	Touchdown +7
16	NO	NO 36	13	43	6:47	Field goal +3
17	CAR	CAR 32	5	-7	1:47	Punt
18	NO	CAR 36	3	36	0:43	Touchdown +7
19	CAR	CAR 30	9	56	3:47	Turnover on downs
20	NO	NO 19	4	8	2:22	Punt
21	CAR	50	4	5	0:22	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NO 45	4	7	1:51	Punt
23	CAR	CAR 13	4	6	1:10	Punt
24	CAR	NO 45	2	1	1:06	End of game

11 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 79 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	13/30	161	0	2	4	-17.8
Andy Dalton	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	5	22	4.4	0	-1.3
Chuba Hubbard	6	14	2.3	0	-2.4
Bryce Young	4	12	3.0	1	3.3
Mike Boone	4	7	1.8	0	-3.0
Jonathan Mingo	1	3	3.0	0	-4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	3	4	49	14%	4.6
Jonathan Mingo	2	5	40	17%	-0.4
Xavier Legette	4	7	35	24%	-0.7
Diontae Johnson	2	6	19	21%	-7.6
David Moore	1	3	14	10%	-5.7
Ja'Tavion Sanders	1	1	4	3%	0.1
Miles Sanders	0	2	0	7%	-0.7
Jordan Matthews	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaq Thompson	4	6	0.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	5	4	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	5	3	0.0	0
Jordan Fuller	4	3	0.0	0
Michael Jackson	6	0	0.0	1
Josey Jewell	2	4	0.0	1
Eku Leota	3	0	1.0	0
Troy Hill	2	1	0.0	0
D.J. Johnson	2	0	0.0	0
Adam Thielen	1	0	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	19/23	200	3	0	1	8.5
Jake Haener	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	15	83	5.5	1	5.5
Jamaal Williams	11	38	3.5	1	-0.9
Taysom Hill	5	35	7.0	0	3.0
Derek Carr	2	13	6.5	0	-0.3
Jordan Mims	4	11	2.8	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	3	5	73	1	21%	3.0
Foster Moreau	4	4	43	1	17%	3.2
Alvin Kamara	5	5	27	0	21%	-0.2
Juwan Johnson	2	3	26	1	13%	2.5
Jamaal Williams	1	1	13	0	4%	1.4
Chris Olave	2	2	11	0	8%	-0.3
Mason Tipton	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.8
Taysom Hill	1	2	1	0	8%	0.8
Bub Means	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alontae Taylor	5	1	3.0	0	1
Paulson Adebo	4	1	0.0	0	1
Anfernee Orji	2	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Foskey	1	3	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	2	2	1.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Howden	1	2	0.0	1	1
Nathan Shepherd	2	1	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Will Harris	0	2	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3.5
Closing total: 41.5
CAR moneyline: +160
NO moneyline: -192

Saints closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 37.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 57 — over by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: CAR 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Dave Canales vs Dennis Allen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.