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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 33, Browns 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 8:21, 2nd and 10, on CeeDee Lamb — 8.8 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:21 · 2nd and 10
CeeDee Lamb
Cowboys
(8:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at CLE 26 for 34 yards (1-J.Thornhill).
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 33–17. Biggest swing: Q1 8:21, Cowboys +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandin CooksCowboysQ1 6:59(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-B.Cooks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.9pts
Unnamed on the sheetBrownsQ1 0:11(:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 49 for 17 yards (30-D.Bush). PENALTY on DAL-24-I.Mukuamu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 39.
6.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 36% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 4 of 14 on third down, against Browns at 2 of 15 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Cowboys182 of 191 plays carry both curves
(8:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at CLE 26 for 34 yards (1-J.Thornhill).
Swing −8.8 for BrownsExpected points −2.73 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:21CLE +9% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at CLE 26 for 34 yards (1-J.Thornhill).
1st · 6:59CLE +8% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-B.Cooks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:11CLE +7% win prob(:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 49 for 17 yards (30-D.Bush). PENALTY on DAL-24-I.Mukuamu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 39.
2nd · 1:52DAL +6% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Kendricks (11-M.Parsons) at CLE 31. 50-E.Kendricks to CLE 23 for 8 yards (85-D.Njoku).
1st · 14:56DAL +6% win prob(14:56) 15-E.Elliott right end to DAL 38 for 5 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on DAL-1-J.Tolbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 33 - No Play.
3rd · 8:46CLE +5% win prob(8:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandin Cooks's 21-yard touchdown catch with 6:59 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:28Dustin Hopkins·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+30–3
1st6:59Brandin Cooks·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+77–3
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.27Browns: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Cowboys: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.35Browns: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Cowboys: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.04Browns: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 59 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Browns’s 70 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Browns 2.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 10.6 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's sack or hit rate, 30.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
DAL's play-action rate, 34.3%, sat 15.9 points above their season number of 18.4% — they faked the run by 2.1 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +14.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Browns11.4%
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteDAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.3%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 18.4% and 2.1 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive
60Tyler GuytonT · Every snap100%63 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%63 snaps
56Cooper BeebeG · Full-time98%62 snaps
73Tyler SmithT · Full-time98%62 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Full-time98%62 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Full-time98%62 snaps
3Brandin CooksWR · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation71%45 snaps
1Jalen TolbertWR · Heavy rotation67%42 snaps
87Jake FergusonTE · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
23Rico DowdleRB · Rotational44%28 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeRB · Rotational32%20 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational30%19 snaps
89Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational30%19 snaps
83Jalen BrooksWR · Situational21%13 snaps
9KaVontae TurpinWR · Situational10%6 snaps
42Deuce VaughnRB · Situational3%2 snaps
67Brock HoffmanC · Situational2%1 snap
76Asim RichardsG · Situational2%1 snap
66TJ BassG · Situational2%1 snap
10Cooper RushQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Andrew BoothCBBuddy JohnsonILBTrey LanceQBMatt WaletzkoTRyan FlournoyWRJohn Stephens Jr.WR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at CLE 26 for 34 yards (1-J.Thornhill).
Q1 8:21 · Cowboys · 2nd & 10 at DAL 40 · gained 34 · +2.73 EP · +12.0% win probability
180 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 78 yards from the DAL 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
34%
Yards
495
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1773%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1867%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.0850%
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7-0.9971%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0160%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3040%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt6 plays
Cowboys0Browns3
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Cowboys 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cowboys6Browns3
Cowboys7Browns3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Browns 21
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 32
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 41
Punt4 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 31
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 31
Cowboys13Browns3
Cowboys14Browns3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Browns 3
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 23
Cowboys17Browns3
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Browns 38
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 36
Cowboys20Browns3
Field goal5 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 34
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Browns 48
3rd quarter52 plays
Cowboys26Browns3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Cowboys27Browns3
Cowboys27Browns9
Cowboys27Browns10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Cowboys 6
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 33
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 23
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 17
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Cowboys 49
Cowboys30Browns10
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 40
4th quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 38
Cowboys33Browns10
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Browns 23
Intercepted8 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Cowboys 22
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 27
Cowboys33Browns16
Cowboys33Browns17
Touchdown19 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Cowboys 2
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
