2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Lumen Field

Denver Broncos

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -6.5 no coverO 42 ✓Seahawks closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Seattle Seahawks 26–20. Biggest swing: Q2 10:26, SEA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:26DEN 5 — SEA 3DEN ball · 4th & 6SEA 56%

(10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 10, RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at SEA 9.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:26SEA +15% win prob(10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 10, RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at SEA 9.
Q2 · 4:36DEN +11% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (99-Z.Allen, 0-J.Cooper).
Q2 · 0:19SEA +11% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-J.Reynolds pushed ob at SEA 27 for 25 yards (22-T.Brown).
Q2 · 1:56DEN +9% win prob(1:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at SEA 47 for -6 yards (53-B.Mafe).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:40DEN Field goal
(12:40) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — SEA 0
Q1 · 2:46SEA Field goal
(2:46) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — SEA 3
Q2 · 11:28DEN Safety
(11:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (6-P.Locke). PENALTY on SEA-75-A.Bradford, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
Score after this play: DEN 5 — SEA 3
Q2 · 8:48DEN Field goal
(8:48) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 8 — SEA 3
Q2 · 6:04SEA Touchdown
(6:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DEN 8 — SEA 9
Q2 · 4:36DEN Safety
(4:36) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (99-Z.Allen, 0-J.Cooper).
Score after this play: DEN 10 — SEA 9
Q2 · 0:07DEN Field goal
(:07) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 13 — SEA 9
Q3 · 10:51SEA Touchdown
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 13 — SEA 16
Q3 · 4:12SEA Field goal
(4:12) 5-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: DEN 13 — SEA 19
Q4 · 15:00SEA Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 26-Z.Charbonnet for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [0-J.Cooper]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 13 — SEA 26
Q4 · 2:17DEN Touchdown
(2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 20 — SEA 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Seahawks
Offensive plays	69	58
Total yards	231	308 (edge)
Yards per play	3.3	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.31	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	28%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	5/18	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

18/25, 171 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.7 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

26/42, 138 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-18.3 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

20 att, 103 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Bo NixQB

5 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

6/7 for 77 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Josh ReynoldsWR

5/8 for 45 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 30	3	-7	0:48	Interception
2	DEN	SEA 20	4	8	1:36	Field goal +3
3	SEA	SEA 27	5	10	1:42	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 35	4	5	1:50	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 21	5	9	2:02	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 33	4	7	1:24	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 22	7	26	2:57	Field goal +3
8	DEN	DEN 30	13	47	6:13	Interception
9	SEA	SEA 1	0	0	0:06	Safety
10	DEN	DEN 32	5	4	1:07	Punt
11	DEN	SEA 9	4	3	1:30	Field goal +3
12	SEA	SEA 30	7	64	2:50	Touchdown +6
13	DEN	DEN 30	5	4	1:19	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 1	1	-1	0:12	Safety
15	DEN	DEN 36	8	17	2:43	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 10	4	1	1:10	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 47	5	26	0:29	Field goal +3
18	SEA	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
19	DEN	DEN 27	5	-3	1:29	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 39	7	66	2:47	Touchdown +7
21	DEN	DEN 30	6	17	2:41	Fumble
22	SEA	DEN 47	10	33	3:54	Field goal +3
23	DEN	DEN 30	5	5	1:32	Punt
24	SEA	SEA 20	7	80	2:43	Touchdown +7
25	DEN	DEN 30	5	9	1:55	Punt
26	SEA	SEA 12	7	18	4:22	Punt
27	DEN	DEN 23	8	28	3:07	Interception
28	SEA	SEA 38	4	1	1:02	Punt
29	DEN	DEN 46	8	54	2:19	Touchdown +7
30	SEA	SEA 30	7	8	2:09	End of game

9 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	26/42	138	0	2	2	-18.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bo Nix	5	35	7.0	1	3.3
Jaleel McLaughlin	10	27	2.7	0	-2.8
Javonte Williams	8	23	2.9	0	-1.6
Audric Estime	2	14	7.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Reynolds	5	8	45	19%	3.6
Devaughn Vele	8	8	39	19%	-0.6
Courtland Sutton	4	12	38	29%	-8.1
Greg Dulcich	2	3	12	7%	-1.9
Michael Burton	1	1	3	2%	-0.9
Jaleel McLaughlin	5	5	1	12%	-6.8
Javonte Williams	1	2	0	5%	-2.1
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	0	1	0	2%	-1.6
Adam Trautman	0	1	0	2%	-0.8
Marvin Mims	0	1	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Riley Moss	7	4	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	4	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	4	2	0.0	0	1
Jonathon Cooper	2	4	2.0	0	0
Alex Singleton	2	3	0.0	1	1
P.J. Locke	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	1	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Jones	2	1	0.0	0	0
Courtland Sutton	1	0	0.0	0	0
Cody Barton	1	0	0.0	0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	18/25	171	1	1	2	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Walker	20	103	5.2	1	1.9
Geno Smith	4	30	7.5	1	3.4
Zach Charbonnet	8	12	1.5	0	-3.7
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	6	7	77	0	28%	-0.5
Zach Charbonnet	2	3	29	1	12%	0.6
DK Metcalf	3	4	29	0	16%	0.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	2	2	19	0	8%	1.3
Noah Fant	2	4	11	0	16%	-2.3
Kenneth Walker	2	3	6	0	12%	-1.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Dareke Young	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Julian Love	9	2	0.0	1	1
Tyrel Dodson	7	1	0.0	0	1
Devon Witherspoon	4	2	0.0	0	1
Rayshawn Jenkins	6	0	0.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	3	2	0.0	0	0
Boye Mafe	3	1	1.0	0	0
Tre Brown	3	0	0.0	0	1
Tariq Woolen	1	2	0.0	1	2
Dareke Young	2	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Morris	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -6.5
Closing total: 42
DEN moneyline: +225
SEA moneyline: -278

Seahawks closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 46 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: DEN 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Mike Macdonald