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1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Broncos178 of 191 plays carry both curves
(10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 10, RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at SEA 9.
Swing −15.0 for SeahawksExpected points −5.72 for SeahawksThe model had Broncos 15 points higher than the market did.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:26SEA +15% win prob(10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 10, RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at SEA 9.
2nd · 4:36DEN +11% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (99-Z.Allen, 0-J.Cooper).
2nd · 0:19SEA +11% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-J.Reynolds pushed ob at SEA 27 for 25 yards (22-T.Brown).
2nd · 1:56DEN +9% win prob(1:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at SEA 47 for -6 yards (53-B.Mafe).
3rd · 10:51SEA +9% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:04SEA +8% win prob(6:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:12
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kenneth Walker's 23-yard rushing touchdown with 10:51 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:40Wil Lutz·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
1st2:46Jason Myers·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–3
2nd11:28Broncos·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+25–3
2nd8:48Wil Lutz·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+38–3
2nd6:04Geno Smith·34-yd TD run34-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+68–9
2nd4:36Zach Allen·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back · with J.Cooper+210–9
2nd0:07Wil Lutz·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+313–9
3rd10:51Kenneth Walker·23-yd TD run23-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+713–16
3rd4:12Jason Myers·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–19
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Broncos: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Broncos: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Broncos: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 69 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 6, Seahawks 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Seahawks18.4%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.5%, 17.9 points below their season mean of 61.4% and 1.4 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Z.Charbonnet right−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:36) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (99-Z.Allen, 0-J.Cooper).
Q2 4:36 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 1 · lost 1 · -1.45 EP · −15.9% win probability
176 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
535
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0758%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3673%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1115%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2014%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2820%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Broncos3Seahawks0
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 11
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 32
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 40
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Broncos 40
Broncos3Seahawks3
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Broncos 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 49
2nd quarter56 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Seahawks 47 to the Seahawks 19
Broncos5Seahawks3
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 36
Broncos8Seahawks3
Field goal5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Broncos8Seahawks9
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Broncos 34
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos10Seahawks9
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Seahawks 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 11
Broncos13Seahawks9
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Seahawks 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos13Seahawks15
Broncos13Seahawks16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Broncos 22
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 49
Broncos13Seahawks19
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 6
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Broncos 41
4th quarter48 plays
Broncos13Seahawks25
Broncos13Seahawks26
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 39
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 31
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Seahawks 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 39
Broncos19Seahawks26
Broncos20Seahawks26
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Seahawks 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -6.5
Closing total
42
Broncos moneyline
+225
Seahawks moneyline
-278
Seahawks closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 46 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 74°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Mike Macdonald
DEN +8% win prob
(8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 38-J.McLaughlin to DEN 48 for 2 yards (24-K.Wallace) [58-D.Hall]. FUMBLES (24-K.Wallace), RECOVERED by SEA-17-J.Baker at DEN 47.
2nd · 11:28DEN +7% win prob(11:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (6-P.Locke). PENALTY on SEA-75-A.Bradford, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
