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Game Center
⏸live · 12s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 3 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 14 final
Green Bay Packers 29 at Philadelphia Eagles 34. Final.
Eagles -2 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 1
Philadelphia Eagles 34, Packers 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:22, 3rd and 10, on Jayden Reed — 26.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Eagles closed -2 and covered, winning by 5.
Philadelphia Eagles 34–29. Biggest swing: Q2 5:22, Packers +26.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:22 · 3rd and 10
Jayden Reed
Packers
(5:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. BrownEaglesQ3 14:22(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.7pts
Reed BlankenshipEaglesQ3 6:15(6:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 88-L.Musgrave INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship at GB 25. 32-R.Blankenship to GB 24 for 1 yard (13-D.Wicks).
19.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Packers180 of 196 plays carry both curves
(5:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −26.6 for EaglesExpected points −6.77 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:22PHI +27% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:22PHI +20% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:15GB +20% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 88-L.Musgrave INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship at GB 25. 32-R.Blankenship to GB 24 for 1 yard (13-D.Wicks).
4th · 10:56PHI +15% win prob(10:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed to PHI 24 for 26 yards (32-R.Blankenship).
2nd · 10:24PHI +14% win prob(10:24) (Shotgun) 11-J.Reed right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:21GB +14% win prob(:21) 44-B.Narveson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
2nd · 0:43
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 4:32 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:30Brayden Narveson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–0
1st3:04Brayden Narveson·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+36–0
3rd11:58Christian Watson·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+726–24
3rd4:32Saquon Barkley·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+726–31
4th7:56Brayden Narveson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+329–31
4th0:30Jake Elliott·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+329–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryEagles
Packers4–4Eagles
414Total yards410
7.0Yards per play5.6
42%Success rate47%
27%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays7
17First downs22
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers3
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Packers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.37Eagles: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.38Packers: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.29Eagles: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 73 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Eagles 7.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles13.5%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 58.7%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 44.2% and 1.0 times their own 14.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+25% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:22 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at GB 30 · gained 70 · +6.77 EP · +25.3% win probability
178 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 196 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 191. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 79 yards from the GB 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
196 of 196 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
196
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
46%
Yards
824
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.1760%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.2364%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2317%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0358%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Eagles 38
Intercepted3 plays
Packers3Eagles0
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 12
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 20
Packers6Eagles0
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Packers 43
2nd quarter54 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers6Eagles6
Packers6Eagles7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 17
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers12Eagles7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Eagles 33
Packers12Eagles13
Packers12Eagles14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Packers 11
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Packers18Eagles14
Packers19Eagles14
Touchdown6 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Packers19Eagles17
Field goal20 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Packers 14
3rd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers19Eagles23
Packers19Eagles24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 33
Packers25Eagles24
Packers26Eagles24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Eagles 2
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 32
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 40
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 22
Packers26Eagles30
Packers26Eagles31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 2
No good10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Eagles 25
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 11
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Packers29Eagles31
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Eagles 8
Packers29Eagles34
Field goal25 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Eagles 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by categoryEagles
Packers3
Eagles0
