For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Houston Texans 29 at Indianapolis Colts 27. Final.
Texans -3 no coverO 49 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 1
Houston Texans 29, Colts 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 12:22, 1st and 10, on Ashton Dulin — 11.4 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:22 · 1st and 10
Ashton Dulin
Colts
(12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:22, Colts +11.4% win probability on one snap.
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alec PierceColtsQ1 5:20(5:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.3pts
Nico CollinsTexansQ2 12:56(12:56) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to IND 13 for 55 yards (20-N.Cross; 29-J.Brents) [90-G.Stewart].
10.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Texans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Colts at 6 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.07 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Texans155 of 166 plays carry both curves
(12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.4 for ColtsExpected points +4.32 for ColtsThe model had Colts 5 points higher than the market did.play 125
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:22IND +11% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:20IND +11% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:56IND +10% win prob(12:56) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to IND 13 for 55 yards (20-N.Cross; 29-J.Brents) [90-G.Stewart].
4th · 4:45IND +10% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 1-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:40IND +10% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to IND 31 for 19 yards (32-J.Blackmon) [44-Z.Franklin].
3rd · 5:49HOU +9% win prob(5:49) 6-T.Townsend punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-46-J.Weeks, RECOVERED by IND-43-T.Denbow at HOU 5.
2nd · 11:35
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stefon Diggs's 9-yard touchdown catch with 11:35 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:48Ka'imi Fairbairn·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+33–0
1st5:20Alec Pierce·60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Anthony Richardsonfrom Anthony Richardson+73–7
1st1:42Ka'imi Fairbairn·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+36–7
2nd11:35Stefon Diggs·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. Stroudfrom C.J. Stroud · two-point no goodLead never changed again+612–7
3rd11:00Ka'imi Fairbairn·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+315–7
3rd5:43Jonathan Taylor·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+615–13
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Texans: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.05Colts: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Texans: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.15Colts: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Texans: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.07Colts: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 75 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Colts’s 44 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Colts 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's blitz rate sent, 8.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Colts23.7%
leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteIND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 45.8%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 29.9% and 1.8 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%79 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%79 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%79 snaps
76Kenyon GreenG · Every snap100%79 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
70Juice ScruggsC · Every snap100%79 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time80%63 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Full-time80%63 snaps
1Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation77%61 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation72%57 snaps
3Tank DellWR · Heavy rotation63%50 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Heavy rotation51%40 snaps
87Cade StoverTE · Situational19%15 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational16%13 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Situational15%12 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Situational15%12 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Situational11%9 snaps
Inactive · 5
Nick BroekerGJamal HillILBCam AkersRBM.J. StewartSSJohn Metchie IIIWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Richardson pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:20 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 40 · gained 60 · +4.62 EP · +15.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 81 yards from the HOU 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
49%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0565%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0741%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.2727%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4570%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Texans 46
Texans3Colts0
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Colts 32
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Texans3Colts6
Texans3Colts7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 40
Texans6Colts7
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 27
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 34
2nd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Texans12Colts7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Colts 9
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 46
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Texans 18
The period ended11 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Colts 38
3rd quarter36 plays
Texans15Colts7
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 33
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 37
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans15Colts13
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 23
4th quarter52 plays
Texans21Colts13
Texans22Colts13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 3
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Texans22Colts19
Texans22Colts20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldSix linemen, one linebacker and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Texans28Colts20
Texans29Colts20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Texans29Colts26
Texans29Colts27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Texans 1
The period ended15 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
