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2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

29

Indianapolis Colts

27

HOU -3 no coverO 49 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:22, IND +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 12:22HOU 22 — IND 19IND ball · 1st & 10HOU 85%

(12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 12:22IND +11% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 5:20IND +11% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 12:56IND +10% win prob(12:56) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to IND 13 for 55 yards (20-N.Cross; 29-J.Brents) [90-G.Stewart].
  4. Q4 · 4:45IND +10% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 1-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:48HOU Field goal

    (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — IND 0
  2. Q1 · 5:20IND Touchdown

    (5:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — IND 7
  3. Q1 · 1:42HOU Field goal

    (1:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — IND 7
  4. Q2 · 11:35HOU Touchdown

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 1-S.Diggs for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — IND 7
  5. Q3 · 11:00HOU Field goal

    (11:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 15 — IND 7
  6. Q3 · 5:43IND Touchdown

    (5:43) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 15 — IND 13
  7. Q4 · 13:45HOU Touchdown

    (13:45) 28-J.Mixon left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 22 — IND 13
  8. Q4 · 12:22IND Touchdown

    (12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 22 — IND 20
  9. Q4 · 4:45HOU Touchdown

    (4:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 1-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 29 — IND 20
  10. Q4 · 2:20IND Touchdown

    (2:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 29 — IND 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansColts
Offensive plays7544
Total yards419 (edge)303
Yards per play5.66.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.14 (edge)0.05
Success rate48% (edge)43%
Dropback rate51%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.07
Third downs7/145/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)14
Sacks taken42 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

24/32, 234 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

9/19, 212 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.0 expected points added · -14.2% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

30 att, 159 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

6 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

8.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

3/3 for 125 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

6/8 for 117 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 277273:20Turnover on downs
2HOUHOU 478264:56Field goal +3
3INDIND 275731:32Touchdown +7
4HOUHOU 308383:35Field goal +3
5INDIND 305-71:37Punt
6HOUHOU 198813:29Touchdown +6
7INDIND 316151:41Punt
8HOUHOU 15411:21Punt
9INDIND 3311475:50Interception
10HOUHOU 88612:39End of half
11HOUHOU 3010374:05Field goal +3
12INDIND 30552:00Punt
13HOUHOU 10633:12Punt
14INDHOU 5250:03Touchdown +6
15HOUHOU 3015706:59Touchdown +7
16INDIND 306651:29Touchdown +7
17HOUHOU 3013707:30Touchdown +7
18INDIND 3210732:28Touchdown +7
19HOUHOU 309322:14End of game

10 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 81 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud24/322342047.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon301595.312.6
Tank Dell2199.500.1
Dameon Pierce3165.300.6
C.J. Stroud4133.30-2.5
Stefon Diggs166.000.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins68117026%9.3
Tank Dell3740023%1.0
Stefon Diggs6633219%7.2
Joe Mixon3319010%-0.6
Dalton Schultz3316010%-1.9
Xavier Hutchinson11303%-0.6
Brevin Jordan12306%1.9
Dare Ogunbowale11303%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o240.001
Derek Stingley400.000
Azeez Al-Shaair130.001
Jimmie Ward300.001
Calen Bullock030.011
Mario Edwards211.000
Folorunso Fatukasi211.000
Khalil Davis110.000
Jalen Pitre200.001
Will Anderson200.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Anthony Richardson9/19212212-3.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Anthony Richardson6569.318.8
Jonathan Taylor16483.01-3.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce33125116%10.1
Ashton Dulin115415%4.3
Michael Pittman4831042%-2.5
Adonai Mitchell152026%-6.0
Kylen Granson01005%-3.9
Mo Alie-Cox01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Cross660.000
E.J. Speed820.000
Julian Blackmon630.000
Zaire Franklin440.000
Jaylon Jones520.001
Julius Brents240.000
DeForest Buckner411.500
Tyquan Lewis321.000
Kenny Moore210.000
Kwity Paye111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -3
Closing total
49
HOU moneyline
-155
IND moneyline
+130

Texans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49; the game landed 56 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
HOU 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.