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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 1
It turned at Q4 12:22, 1st and 10, on Ashton Dulin — 11.4 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 12:22, Colts +11.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:22 · 1st and 10
Ashton Dulin
Colts
(12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Texans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Colts at 6 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Stefon Diggs's 9-yard touchdown catch with 11:35 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Stefon Diggs9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. Stroud · two-point no goodLead never changed again+612–710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 75 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Colts’s 44 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Colts 5.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
HOU's blitz rate sent, 8.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-4.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 74 snaps
Colts-11.1 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their -8.7 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Texans41.4%leaned — ran early · −14.7 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 58 early downs
Colts54.8%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±13.0 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 31 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Texans18.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Colts45.8%leaned — faked the run · +15.9 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Texans50.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.7 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Colts66.7%inside their normal wobble · +25.0 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±27.3 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 51%
Tendencies room →Texans8.3%leaned — sat back · −16.6 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Colts28.9%inside their normal wobble · +8.9 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 33%
Tendencies room →Texans8.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Colts23.7%leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
IND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 45.8%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 29.9% and 1.8 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
24/32, 234 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.5 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected
Passing · IND
9/19, 212 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.0 expected points added · -14.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Alec Pierce banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.8 | 0.0 | 72% | 55% | 10% | 0% | 30 car, 159 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 19 yd |
| Anthony RichardsonQB · Starter QB | 26.1 | +8.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 9/19, 212 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 21.9 | +8.5 | 77% | 89% | 19% | 4% | 1 car, 6 yd · 6/6, 33 yd, 2 TD |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 21.5 | +12.8 | 84% | 83% | 16% | 38% | 3/3, 125 yd, 1 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 18.7 | −2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/32, 234 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 13 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.7 | +3.3 | 80% | 84% | 26% | 50% | 6/8, 117 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +10.4 | 24% | 17% | 5% | 6% | 1/1, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.8 | −2.2 | 96% | 92% | 0% | — | 16 car, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Tank DellWR · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | −9.8 | 63% | 87% | 23% | 42% | 2 car, 19 yd · 3/7, 40 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.1 | −6.4 | 89% | 88% | 42% | 24% | 4/8, 31 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | 0.0 | 80% | 84% | 10% | 5% | 3/3, 16 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB | 1.6 | −0.2 | 11% | 11% | 0% | — | 3 car, 16 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 1.3 | −0.2 | 16% | 34% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −2.1 | 51% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 15% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Alpha Receiver | 1.2 | −8.1 | 64% | 75% | 26% | 26% | 1/5, 2 yd |
| British BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Steven SimsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 40% | 42% | 5% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 56% | 67% | 5% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Anthony GouldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:20 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 40 · gained 60 · +4.62 EP · +15.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 81 yards from the HOU 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans3
Colts0How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Texans3Colts6Texans3Colts7Texans6Colts7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Texans12Colts7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Texans15Colts7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Texans15Colts13Texans21Colts13Texans22Colts13How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Texans22Colts19Texans22Colts20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Texans28Colts20Texans29Colts20How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Texans29Colts26Texans29Colts27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 24/32 | 234 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 30 | 159 | 5.3 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Dameon Pierce |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 6 | 8 | 117 | 0 | 26% | +9.3 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Stingley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 9/19 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_01_HOU_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49; the game landed 56 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| +1.0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 19% | +7.2 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | +1.9 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Calen Bullock | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mario Edwards | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Davis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Anderson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 1 | +8.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 | −3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 3 | 125 | 1 | 16% | +10.1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 5% | +4.3 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 42% | −2.5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 26% | −6.0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −3.9 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cross | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julius Brents | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Lewis | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
