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2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

17

Miami DolphinsWinner

20

MIA -3.5 no coverU 49.5 ✓91°F

Miami Dolphins 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, MIA +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 0:04JAX 17 — MIA 20MIA ball · 3rd & 7MIA 80%

(:04) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:04MIA +20% win prob(:04) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
  2. Q3 · 2:19MIA +18% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 13:38JAX +17% win prob(13:38) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
  4. Q4 · 3:06JAX +14% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 20 for -6 yards (15-J.Phillips).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:34JAX Touchdown

    (4:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — MIA 0
  2. Q2 · 6:28JAX Touchdown

    (6:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — MIA 0
  3. Q2 · 1:09MIA Touchdown

    (1:09) 28-D.Achane up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — MIA 7
  4. Q2 · 0:03JAX Field goal

    (:03) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — MIA 7
  5. Q3 · 2:19MIA Touchdown

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — MIA 14
  6. Q4 · 4:26MIA Field goal

    (4:26) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — MIA 17
  7. Q4 · 0:04MIA Field goal

    (:04) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — MIA 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsDolphins
Offensive plays5065
Total yards267400 (edge)
Yards per play5.36.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.150.02 (edge)
Success rate40%40%
Dropback rate50%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.110.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.40-0.16 (edge)
Third downs2/108/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps1616
Sacks taken33
Turnovers10 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

23/37, 338 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.3 expected points added · -7.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

12/21, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.7 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

12 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

12 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

-10.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

7/12 for 130 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

5/5 for 109 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 208383:23Turnover on downs
2JAXJAX 424-141:35Punt
3MIAMIA 317182:13Punt
4JAXJAX 47563:18Touchdown +7
5MIAMIA 255162:28Punt
6JAXJAX 126112:24Punt
7MIAMIA 215142:47Turnover on downs
8JAXJAX 459665:31Touchdown +7
9MIAMIA 3014745:17Touchdown +7
10JAXJAX 237431:04Field goal +3
11JAXJAX 30551:30Punt
12MIAMIA 137123:51Punt
13JAXJAX 37471:20Punt
14MIAMIA 115432:53Punt
15JAXJAX 36803:07Fumble
16MIAMIA 202800:11Touchdown +7
17JAXJAX 23572:21Turnover on downs
18MIAJAX 30461:14Missed field goal
19JAXJAX 325162:27Punt
20MIAMIA 812686:44Field goal +3
21JAXJAX 305-102:13Punt
22MIAMIA 358312:09Field goal +3

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence12/211621031.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tank Bigsby12736.10-0.6
Travis Etienne12443.71-10.7
Trevor Lawrence188.001.0
Devin Duvernay133.001.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Gabe Davis3362016%3.7
Brian Thomas4447121%5.7
Christian Kirk1430021%-0.2
Travis Etienne2315016%-0.2
Evan Engram145021%-2.6
Parker Washington11305%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Lloyd720.000
Antonio Johnson540.000
Foyesade Oluokun520.001
Ronald Darby520.001
Travon Walker242.000
Andre Cisco220.000
Tyson Campbell300.000
Montaric Brown210.000
Yasir Abdullah300.000
Josh Hines-Allen020.001

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa23/373381034.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeffery Wilson5265.201.1
Devon Achane10242.41-2.2
Tua Tagovailoa11111.001.0
Raheem Mostert691.50-3.6
Alec Ingold284.000.9
Jaylen Waddle133.00-0.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill712130133%4.4
Jaylen Waddle55109014%7.7
Devon Achane7776019%4.1
Raheem Mostert231008%0.8
Jonnu Smith12706%-1.5
Julian Hill11603%0.2
Alec Ingold01003%-0.6
Braxton Berrios02006%-5.1
Durham Smythe03008%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Poyer330.000
Kendall Fuller420.000
David Long Jr.410.000
Jordyn Brooks130.000
Jevon Holland220.001
Kader Kohou400.000
Emmanuel Ogbah221.000
Calais Campbell301.000
Jaelan Phillips111.000
Storm Duck200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Closing total
49.5
JAX moneyline
+150
MIA moneyline
-180

Dolphins closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
91°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
JAX 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Mike McDaniel