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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Jaguars157 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:04) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Swing +19.9 for DolphinsExpected points +1.16 for DolphinsThe model had Jaguars 9 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04MIA +20% win prob(:04) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
3rd · 2:19MIA +18% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:38JAX +17% win prob(13:38) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
4th · 3:06JAX +14% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 20 for -6 yards (15-J.Phillips).
3rd · 8:19MIA +13% win prob(8:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle to JAX 26 for 63 yards (5-A.Cisco).
4th · 15:00JAX +13% win prob(15:00) 1-T.Etienne right end to JAX 30 for -2 yards (5-J.Ramsey, 29-K.Fuller).
1st · 13:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 52-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd0:03Cam Little·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+317–7
3rd2:19Tyreek Hill·80-yd TD catch80-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+717–14
4th4:26Jason Sanders·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+317–17
4th0:04Jason Sanders·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryDolphins
Jaguars2–4Dolphins
267Total yards400
5.3Yards per play6.2
40%Success rate40%
20%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays7
16First downs16
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Jaguars: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.02Dolphins: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Jaguars: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.13Dolphins: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.40Jaguars: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.16Dolphins: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 50 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Dolphins 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Dolphins16.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteJAX's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.0%, 15.8 points below their season mean of 56.8% and 1.5 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
50 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%53 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%53 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%53 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%53 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
65Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%53 snaps
0Gabe DavisWR · Full-time94%50 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Heavy rotation77%41 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation70%37 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation68%36 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational36%19 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Rotational32%17 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational26%14 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Situational13%7 snaps
12Devin DuvernayWR · Situational9%5 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Esezi OtomewoDEJeremiah LedbetterDTJordan JeffersonDTDaniel ThomasSSCole Van LanenTJavon FosterT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jason Sanders+29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q4 0:04 · Dolphins · 3rd & 7 at JAX 34 · gained nothing · +1.16 EP · +29.1% win probability
155 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 96 yards from the JAX 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
667
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1554%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.1470%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.1974%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4264%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.1518%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1740%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Jaguars 42
Punt4 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Dolphins 49
Jaguars6Dolphins0
Jaguars7Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 4 to the Dolphins 1
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 22
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Jaguars 45
Jaguars13Dolphins0
Jaguars14Dolphins0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Dolphins 8
Jaguars14Dolphins6
Jaguars14Dolphins7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Jaguars 1
Jaguars17Dolphins7
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Dolphins 34
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 35
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Dolphins 23
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Jaguars 26
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Dolphins 13
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Jaguars17Dolphins13
Jaguars17Dolphins14
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 32
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxFive defenders
Turnover on downs1 play
No good4 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 23
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Dolphins 47
Jaguars17Dolphins17
Field goal16 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Jaguars 15
Punt6 plays
Jaguars17Dolphins20
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Jaguars 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -3.5
Closing total
49.5
Jaguars moneyline
+150
Dolphins moneyline
-180
Dolphins closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 90°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Mike McDaniel
MIA +13% win prob
(13:40) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane pushed ob at JAX 44 for 39 yards (25-R.Darby).
1st · 4:43MIA +10% win prob(4:43) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle to 7-B.Thomas. PENALTY on MIA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Pass Interference, 40 yards, enforced at MIA 41 - No Play.
