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4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Rams171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 25 for -5 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Swing +20.3 for LionsExpected points +0.13 for LionsThe model had Lions 4 points higher than the market did.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:11LA +20% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 25 for -5 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Overtime · 9:23DET +14% win prob(9:23) 5-D.Montgomery right end to LA 37 for 21 yards (27-T.White).
4th · 0:24LA +14% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 26-J.Gibbs.
4th · 2:00DET +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to LA 46 for 18 yards (26-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-26-K.Kinchens, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 46.
3rd · 0:52DET +12% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 18-T.Johnson to DET 23 for 63 yards (44-M.Rodriguez) [97-A.Hutchinson].
4th · 5:40DET +10% win prob(5:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to DET 27 for 20 yards.
4th · 1:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:24 left in overtime put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:54Joshua Karty·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+33–0
2nd12:20Jake Bates·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+33–3
4th12:35Joshua Karty·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+313–17
4th4:35Cooper Kupp·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+720–17
4th0:20Jake Bates·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+320–20
Overtime5:24David Montgomery·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+620–26
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryLions
Rams2–4Lions
387Total yards363
5.2Yards per play6.0
47%Success rate51%
42%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays6
23First downs19
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.11Lions: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Rams: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.10Lions: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Rams: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.32Lions: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 74 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Lions’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Lions 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Lions21.6%
inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteLA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 11.8%, 19.0 points below their season mean of 30.8% and 1.9 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Stafford sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 25 for -5 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Q4 0:11 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at LA 30 · lost 5 · -0.13 EP · −16.5% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 80 yards from the LA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
50%
Yards
750
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR74+0.0469%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1066%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0520%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 42
Rams3Lions0
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Lions 19
The period ended10 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Rams 28
2nd quarter45 plays
Rams3Lions3
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 6
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Lions 23
Rams3Lions9
Rams3Lions10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Rams 1
Intercepted12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Lions 8
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 36
Punt4 plays
Rams3Lions16
Rams3Lions17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Lions 48
Rams9Lions17
Rams10Lions17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Lions 2
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Rams13Lions17
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Rams 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams19Lions17
Rams20Lions17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Lions 9
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 35
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Rams20Lions20
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Rams 14
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended5 plays
Overtime11 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams20Lions26
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Rams 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -5
Closing total
54
Rams moneyline
+185
Lions moneyline
-225
Lions closed -5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 54; the game landed 46 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Rams 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Dan Campbell
DET +10% win prob
(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 26-J.Gibbs to LA 23 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
4th · 9:15LA +10% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA 20. 43-J.Johnson to LA 20 for no gain (14-A.St. Brown).
