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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 1
It turned at Q2 1:22, 1st and 10, on Gardner Minshew — 26.0 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:22 · 1st and 10
Gardner Minshew
Chargers
(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 46 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, touched at LV 42, RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LV 34. 52-K.Mack to LV 12 for 22 yards (74-K.Miller).
Los Angeles Chargers 22–10. Biggest swing: Q2 1:22, Chargers +26.0% win probability on one snap.
26.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.80 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — -0.09 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 46 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, touched at LV 42, RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LV 34. 52-K.Mack to LV 12 for 22 yards (74-K.Miller).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cameron Dicker's 24-yard field goal with 9:11 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Cameron Dicker24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+37–9
Ladd McConkey10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbert · two-point no good+610–227 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryChargers
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Chargers’s 52 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Chargers 4.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders1.3 ptsright on their number · +2.1 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 59 snaps
Chargers-7.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 91%
Tendencies room →Raiders61.4%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 44 early downs
Chargers43.2%leaned — ran early · −12.0 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 63%
Tendencies room →Raiders7.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.2 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chargers7.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −23.6 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.92× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 94%
Fourth Down room →Raiders16.7%inside their normal wobble · −14.4 vs their 31.1%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −17.9 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±16.0 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 67%
Tendencies room →Raiders28.6%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Chargers27.5%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Raiders17.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Chargers15.0%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
LAC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.1%, 23.6 points below their season mean of 30.7% and 1.9 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
25/33, 257 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.2 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
17/26, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.9 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
J.K. Dobbins banked 14.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Committee Back | 22.9 | +14.0 | 58% | 68% | 12% | 0% | 10 car, 135 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 4 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB · Committee Back | 16.2 | +5.3 | 60% | 68% | 19% | 0% | 5 car, 19 yd · 4/6, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | +3.7 | 67% | 75% | 28% | 23% | 5/7, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock BowersTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.8 | +0.3 | 68% | 73% | 25% | 26% | 6/8, 58 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | +1.3 | 97% | 90% | 19% | 39% | 5/6, 59 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 10.8 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/33, 257 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 5 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/26, 144 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 6 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +4.4 | 87% | 80% | 9% | 28% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/3, 61 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −0.3 | 67% | 79% | 20% | 33% | 3/5, 38 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −1.8 | 61% | 75% | 12% | 19% | 2/3, 33 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB · Committee Back | 4.6 | −4.1 | 38% | 23% | 6% | 0% | 13 car, 44 yd · 2/2, 2 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.1 | 78% | 78% | 9% | 15% | 2/3, 22 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 3.8 | −4.2 | 42% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 26 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −4.2 | 81% | 93% | 16% | 24% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +1.3 | 44% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.9 | 57% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 2/3, 3 yd |
| D.J. TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | −1.5 | 32% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyreik McAllisterRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 46 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, touched at LV 42, RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LV 34. 52-K.Mack to LV 12 for 22 yards (74-K.Miller).
Q2 1:22 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at LAC 48 · lost 10 · -7.45 EP · −25.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 92 yards from the LAC 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Chargers3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders6Chargers3Raiders7Chargers3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Raiders7Chargers6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Raiders7Chargers9How the play was built
A man in motion.
Raiders7Chargers15Raiders7Chargers16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Raiders10Chargers16Raiders10Chargers22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 25/33 | 257 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 | −13.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9% | +4.8 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 19% | +6.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/26 | 144 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_01_LV_LAC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 41; the game landed 32 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Brock Bowers | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 | 25% | +2.8 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 19% | −1.1 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| John Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 135 |
| 13.5 |
| 1 |
| +7.1 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 | −6.1 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 28% | +1.8 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 20% | −0.7 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 16% | −1.1 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12% | −2.0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Scott Matlock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Bosa | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Colson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan Fox | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
