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live · 12s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 3 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 14 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 1
It turned at Q1 5:32, 3rd and 8, on Sam Darnold — 12.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 28–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:32, Vikings +12.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:32 · 3rd and 8
Sam Darnold
Vikings
(5:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Addison. PENALTY on NYG-21-A.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at MIN 37 - No Play.
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(5:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Addison. PENALTY on NYG-21-A.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at MIN 37 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Aaron Jones's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 3:56 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryGiants
Vikings ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 50 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Giants’s 68 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Giants 3.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings1.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 4.1 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 50 snaps
Giants-5.3 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 81%
Tendencies room →Vikings46.2%leaned — ran early · −8.4 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 39 early downs
Giants66.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.1 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Vikings26.9%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Giants20.4%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Vikings25.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Giants33.3%right on their number · −6.4 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 78%
Tendencies room →Vikings34.7%inside their normal wobble · −10.1 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Giants15.4%leaned — sat back · −13.8 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Vikings24.5%leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Giants7.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.5%, 8.2 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.3 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
19/24, 208 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
9.6 expected points added · +16.7% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
22/42, 186 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-22.6 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
4/6 for 59 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jalen Nailor banked 6.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 18.9 | +5.6 | 55% | 42% | 9% | 3% | 14 car, 94 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | +4.3 | 84% | 96% | 26% | 32% | 4/6, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | +1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/24, 208 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.8 | −7.3 | 68% | 71% | 32% | 27% | 1 car, 14 yd · 6/12, 44 yd |
| Malik NabersWR · Featured Receiver | 11.6 | +1.4 | 100% | 96% | 18% | 23% | 5/7, 66 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 9.2 | −3.0 | 70% | 67% | 13% | 0% | 10 car, 37 yd · 4/5, 15 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +6.1 | 47% | 46% | 4% | 11% | 1/1, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty ChandlerRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −2.5 | 35% | 42% | 13% | 0% | 8 car, 17 yd · 3/3, 25 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −0.5 | 51% | 58% | 17% | 24% | 3/4, 35 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −1.2 | 72% | 78% | 11% | 16% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 4.9 | −14.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/42, 186 yd, 2 INT · 6 car, 15 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.1 | 47% | 38% | 9% | 13% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.8 | 53% | 62% | 13% | 7% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.0 | 86% | 88% | 11% | 15% | 1/4, 18 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 2.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyrone TracyRB | 1.7 | −3.0 | 21% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 2 car, 2 yd · 1/3, 5 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.2 | 23% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 1.1 | −1.8 | 35% | 38% | 9% | 3% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 55% | 46% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 23% | 16% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Myles GaskinRB | -0.3 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Addison. PENALTY on NYG-21-A.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at MIN 37 - No Play.
Q1 5:32 · Vikings · 3rd & 8 at MIN 37 · gained nothing · +3.86 EP · +14.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 99 yards from the MIN 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings0
Giants3Vikings6Giants3Vikings7Giants3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings13Giants3Vikings14Giants3Vikings20Giants3Vikings21Giants3Vikings21Giants6Vikings27Giants6Vikings28Giants6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 19/24 | 208 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 94 | 6.7 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Ty Chandler | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 26% | +5.4 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 17% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Murphy | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ivan Pace | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/42 | 186 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −22.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_01_MIN_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -1 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 34 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +1.5 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 13% | +3.0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 4% | +2.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 13% | +2.4 |
| C.J. Ham | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −3.2 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Blake Cashman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Jones | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 |
| 37 |
| 3.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Eric Gray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 18% | +4.1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 32% | −12.9 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 11% | −1.3 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −2.9 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −1.0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Muasau | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Nubin | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick McCloud | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
