2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -8 upsetU 40.5 ✓Bengals closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 13:56, CIN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 13:56NE 10 — CIN 0NE ball · 4th & 4NE 62%

(13:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 20 for 10 yards (49-J.Cardona). FUMBLES (49-J.Cardona), RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at CIN 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 13:56CIN +15% win prob(13:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 20 for 10 yards (49-J.Cardona). FUMBLES (49-J.Cardona), RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at CIN 24.
Q2 · 5:19NE +13% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to NE 2 for 13 yards (23-K.Dugger). FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at NE 1. 25-M.Jones to NE 18 for 17 yards (1-J.Chase, 31-Z.Moss).
Q2 · 15:00CIN +8% win prob(15:00) 70-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:27NE +8% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 32 for -5 yards (sack split by 99-K.White and 8-J.Bentley).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 15:00NE Touchdown
(15:00) 70-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — CIN 0
Q2 · 0:02NE Field goal
(:02) 13-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 10 — CIN 0
Q3 · 11:37NE Field goal
(11:37) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 13 — CIN 0
Q3 · 1:13CIN Touchdown
(1:13) (Shotgun) 31-Z.Moss right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 13 — CIN 7
Q4 · 8:50NE Field goal
(8:50) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 16 — CIN 7
Q4 · 6:18CIN Field goal
(6:18) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: NE 16 — CIN 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bengals
Offensive plays	61	48
Total yards	292 (edge)	224
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	44% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	48%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.20 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

21/29, 164 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.2 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Jacoby BrissettQB

15/24, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.0 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

25 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Zack MossRB

9 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

6/6 for 62 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Austin HooperTE

2/4 for 31 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 35	5	8	2:13	Punt
2	NE	NE 20	6	25	2:55	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 11	4	9	2:34	Punt
4	NE	NE 20	15	85	7:20	Touchdown +7
5	CIN	CIN 30	5	2	2:16	Punt
6	NE	NE 17	4	1	1:00	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 35	13	58	6:33	Fumble
8	NE	NE 18	12	63	5:09	Field goal +3
9	NE	NE 30	5	6	1:18	Punt
10	NE	CIN 24	4	7	2:08	Field goal +3
11	CIN	CIN 30	10	35	4:31	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NE 35	4	7	1:26	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 10	10	70	4:27	Touchdown +7
14	NE	NE 30	13	52	7:24	Field goal +3
15	CIN	CIN 30	7	37	2:32	Field goal +3
16	NE	NE 30	6	20	3:10	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 10	4	5	0:51	Punt
18	NE	NE 30	7	26	2:13	End of game

6 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	15/24	121	0	0	1	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	25	120	4.8	1	0.0
Jacoby Brissett	7	32	4.6	0	2.1
Antonio Gibson	7	18	2.6	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	2	4	31	17%	1.3
Tyquan Thornton	2	3	27	13%	2.1
K.J. Osborn	3	6	21	26%	-3.4
Hunter Henry	2	3	18	13%	2.0
Demario Douglas	2	3	12	13%	-0.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3	6	13%	-2.0
Ja'Lynn Polk	1	1	6	4%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	6	5	0.5	0
Kyle Dugger	2	4	0.0	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	2	0.0	1
Marcus Jones	2	2	0.0	0
Keion White	3	1	2.5	0
Brenden Schooler	3	0	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	1	2	0.0	1
Daniel Ekuale	1	1	0.0	0
Marco Wilson	1	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	21/29	164	0	0	3	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	9	44	4.9	1	2.5
Joe Burrow	4	15	3.8	0	0.0
Chase Brown	3	11	3.7	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	6	6	62	21%	4.7
Andrei Iosivas	3	6	26	21%	-1.8
Mike Gesicki	3	4	18	14%	-1.1
Tanner Hudson	2	3	18	10%	-5.7
Zack Moss	2	4	17	14%	-0.7
Chase Brown	3	3	12	10%	-0.8
Trenton Irwin	1	2	6	7%	-0.5
Charlie Jones	1	1	5	3%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Logan Wilson	6	6	0.0	0
Dax Hill	6	1	1.0	1
Cam Taylor-Britt	4	3	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	2	5	0.0	1
Vonn Bell	2	3	0.0	0
Jay Tufele	2	2	0.0	0
Sam Hubbard	2	2	0.0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	1	2	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	2	1	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -8
Closing total: 40.5
NE moneyline: +295
CIN moneyline: -375

Bengals closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 26 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NE 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Jerod Mayo vs Zac Taylor