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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 1
It turned at Q3 13:56, 4th and 4 — 15.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:56 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(13:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 20 for 10 yards (49-J.Cardona). FUMBLES (49-J.Cardona), RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at CIN 24.
New England Patriots 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 13:56, Patriots +15.0% win probability on one snap.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Bengals at 2 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(13:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 20 for 10 yards (49-J.Cardona). FUMBLES (49-J.Cardona), RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at CIN 24.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rhamondre Stevenson's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBengals
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 61 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Bengals’s 48 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bengals 2.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.5 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-6.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 61 snaps
Bengals8.9 ptsright on their number · +1.0 vs their 7.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 85%
Tendencies room →Patriots34.0%leaned — ran early · −22.3 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−2.00× that swing) · 47 early downs
Bengals69.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 62.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 33%
Tendencies room →Patriots10.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −6.7 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bengals14.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Patriots0.0%inside their normal wobble · −32.2 vs their 32.2%, and they swing ±33.7 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals25.0%inside their normal wobble · −20.8 vs their 45.8%, and they swing ±27.8 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots28.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bengals24.1%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Patriots8.6%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bengals24.1%leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.0%, 22.3 points below their season mean of 56.3% and 2.0 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
21/29, 164 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-4.2 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected
Passing · NE
15/24, 121 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.0 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Ja'Marr Chase banked 3.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.6 | +2.9 | 78% | 66% | 13% | 0% | 25 car, 120 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 6 yd |
| Zack MossRB · Committee Back | 14.1 | +2.6 | 65% | 54% | 14% | 1% | 9 car, 44 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 17 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Featured Receiver | 12.2 | +3.8 | 84% | 80% | 21% | 23% | 6/6, 62 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 8.1 | −4.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/29, 164 yd · 4 car, 15 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 8.0 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/24, 121 yd · 7 car, 32 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −3.2 | 100% | 91% | 21% | 28% | 3/6, 26 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Receiving Back | 5.3 | −0.6 | 33% | 34% | 10% | 6% | 3 car, 11 yd · 3/3, 12 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.1 | −3.9 | 62% | 48% | 26% | 18% | 3/6, 21 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −0.2 | 55% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 2/4, 31 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −2.1 | 35% | 40% | 14% | 17% | 3/4, 18 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.3 | 58% | 62% | 13% | 37% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −1.0 | 83% | 76% | 13% | 17% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | 0.0 | 60% | 62% | 13% | 12% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.7 | 18% | 26% | 10% | 8% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 1.8 | −1.5 | 22% | 21% | 0% | — | 7 car, 18 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.4 | 65% | 60% | 7% | 14% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 54% | 52% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 16% | 20% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 20 for 10 yards (49-J.Cardona). FUMBLES (49-J.Cardona), RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at CIN 24.
Q3 13:56 · Patriots · 4th & 4 at NE 36 · gained nothing · +5.49 EP · +8.4% win probability
140 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 80 yards from the NE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Bengals0Patriots7Bengals0Patriots10Bengals0Patriots13Bengals0Patriots13Bengals6Patriots13Bengals7Patriots16Bengals7Patriots16Bengals10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/24 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 25 | 120 | 4.8 | 1 | +0.0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% | +1.3 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 13% | +2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 6 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 21/29 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_01_NE_CIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -8 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 26 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 26% | −3.4 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 13% | +2.0 |
| Demario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13% | −2.0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion White | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenden Schooler | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Wilson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 44 |
| 4.9 |
| 1 |
| +2.5 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 21% | +4.7 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 21% | −1.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 10% | −5.7 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 14% | −0.7 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Charlie Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Hill | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vonn Bell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Tufele | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
