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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 9, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 1
It turned at Q1 11:54, 1st and 10, on Breece Hall — 12.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 32–19. Biggest swing: Q1 11:54, 49ers +12.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:54 · 1st and 10
Breece Hall
49ers
(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NYJ 32, RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NYJ 32.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.21 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 10 on third down, against 49ers at 6 of 13 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NYJ 32, RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NYJ 32.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Deebo Samuel's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 7:00 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Allen Lazard36-yd TD catch36-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · two-point no good+613–2611 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 50 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against 49ers’s 69 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, 49ers 5.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-5.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 48 snaps
49ers-10.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.3 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jets59.5%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 37 early downs
49ers37.5%leaned — ran early · −17.0 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 44%
Tendencies room →Jets18.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
49ers21.2%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Jets33.3%inside their normal wobble · −22.6 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
49ers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 52%
Tendencies room →Jets21.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers12.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jets12.1%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers12.5%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -5.0 pts, 7.1 points below their season mean of 2.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/29, 231 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
6.5 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
13/21, 167 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.3 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Allen Lazard banked 11.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen LazardWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.9 | +11.1 | 100% | 100% | 31% | 50% | 6/9, 89 yd, 2 TD |
| Jordan MasonRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.2 | +4.7 | 81% | 79% | 3% | 2% | 28 car, 147 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.7 | −4.6 | 74% | 82% | 31% | 29% | 8 car, 23 yd, 1 TD · 5/9, 54 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.3 | +0.1 | 82% | 75% | 21% | 0% | 16 car, 54 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 39 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.0 | −4.3 | 96% | 100% | 38% | 51% | 6/11, 60 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.4 | +2.5 | 49% | 55% | 17% | 19% | 5/5, 64 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −3.6 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 231 yd · 1 car, 11 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 8.6 | +1.6 | 75% | — | 0% | — | 13/21, 167 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +0.1 | 92% | 97% | 17% | 9% | 4/5, 40 yd |
| Tyrod TaylorQB | 6.1 | −0.4 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 6/8, 36 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 6.0 | +1.0 | 56% | 55% | 10% | 12% | 2/3, 40 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −4.6 | 60% | 79% | 17% | 21% | 2/5, 28 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 2.7 | +0.9 | 18% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.5 | 90% | 91% | 7% | 1% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 59% | 69% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 26% | 9% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jacob CowingWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brandon AllenQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NYJ 32, RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NYJ 32.
Q1 11:54 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 30 · gained 2 · -5.33 EP · −13.2% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Jets0
49ers3Jets649ers3Jets749ers3Jets749ers6Jets749ers12Jets749ers13Jets749ers16Jets749ers22Jets749ers23Jets749ers26Jets1349ers26Jets1349ers29Jets1349ers32Jets1949ers32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 13/21 | 167 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6/8 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 1 | −4.7 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 9 | 89 | 2 | 31% | +7.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 38% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Adams | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Mosley | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/29 | 231 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_01_NYJ_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 43; the game landed 51 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| −0.5 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 21% | −3.8 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −1.1 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Solomon Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyn Holmes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 28 | 147 | 5.3 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 17% | +5.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 31% | −1.2 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 17% | +1.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 10% | +2.2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17% | +2.3 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| George Odum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
