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New York Jets 19 at San Francisco 49ers 32. Final.
49ers -3.5 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 1
San Francisco 49ers 32, Jets 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:54, 1st and 10, on Breece Hall — 12.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:54 · 1st and 10
Breece Hall
49ers
(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NYJ 32, RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NYJ 32.
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
San Francisco 49ers 32–19. Biggest swing: Q1 11:54, 49ers +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon Aiyuk49ersQ1 1:48(1:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to NYJ 34 for 14 yards (22-T.Adams).
8.0pts
Jauan Jennings49ersQ2 8:56(8:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings to NYJ 17 for 22 yards (22-T.Adams, 44-J.Sherwood).
8.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.21 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 10 on third down, against 49ers at 6 of 13 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Jets152 of 162 plays carry both curves
(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NYJ 32, RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NYJ 32.
Swing +12.3 for 49ersExpected points +5.33 for 49ersThe model had Jets 3 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:54NYJ +12% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NYJ 32, RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NYJ 32.
1st · 1:48SF +8% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to NYJ 34 for 14 yards (22-T.Adams).
2nd · 8:56SF +8% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings to NYJ 17 for 22 yards (22-T.Adams, 44-J.Sherwood).
2nd · 15:00NYJ +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-D.Samuel sacked at NYJ 33 for -4 yards (1-A.Gardner).
1st · 7:32SF +7% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to SF 35 for 14 yards (30-G.Odum).
2nd · 13:09NYJ +6% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 30 for -5 yards (56-L.Floyd). Penalty on NYJ-77-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deebo Samuel's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 7:00 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:03Jake Moody·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–3
4th9:46Jake Moody·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+313–29
4th4:24Jake Moody·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+313–32
4th0:30Allen Lazard·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyrod Taylorfrom Tyrod Taylor · two-point no good+619–32
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by category49ers
Jets2–649ers
267Total yards402
5.3Yards per play5.8
44%Success rate45%
60%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays10
16First downs23
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Jets: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.1549ers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.0549ers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 50 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against 49ers’s 69 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers12.5%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -5.0 pts, 7.1 points below their season mean of 2.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
66Joe TippmannC · Every snap100%51 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%51 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%51 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%51 snaps
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%51 snaps
10Allen LazardWR · Every snap100%51 snaps
5Garrett WilsonWR · Full-time96%49 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Full-time90%46 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Full-time82%42 snaps
8Aaron RodgersQB · Heavy rotation75%38 snaps
82Xavier GipsonWR · Heavy rotation59%30 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational33%17 snaps
2Tyrod TaylorQB · Rotational25%13 snaps
0Braelon AllenRB · Situational18%9 snaps
18Mike WilliamsWR · Situational18%9 snaps
48Anthony FirkserTE · Situational2%1 snap
17Malachi CorleyWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jarrick Bernard-ConverseCBEric WattsDELeonard Taylor IIIDTIsrael AbanikandaRBCarter WarrenTMax MitchellTBrenden BatesTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at NYJ 32, RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NYJ 32.
Q1 11:54 · Jets · 1st & 10 at NYJ 30 · gained 2 · -5.33 EP · −13.2% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
47%
Yards
667
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0669%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28-0.1046%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1961%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4536%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2211%
49ers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 37
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 16
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Jets049ers3
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 29
Jets649ers3
Jets749ers3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 30 to the 49ers 3
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Jets 34
2nd quarter44 plays
Jets749ers6
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 35
Jets749ers12
Jets749ers13
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Jets 2
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 35
Jets749ers16
Field goal16 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the Jets 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Jets749ers22
Jets749ers23
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Jets 3
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 40
Jets749ers26
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Jets 35
Jets1349ers26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 30 to the 49ers 36
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 36
4th quarter41 plays
Jets1349ers29
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the Jets 5
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 24 to midfield
Jets1349ers32
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the Jets 18
Jets1949ers32
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jets 30 to the 49ers 3
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
