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2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

18

Atlanta Falcons

10

ATL -4 upsetU 43 ✓Dome

Pittsburgh Steelers 18–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:47, PIT +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 2:47PIT 15 — ATL 10ATL ball · 1st & 10PIT 66%

(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:47PIT +27% win prob(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
  2. Q3 · 10:34PIT +16% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins Aborted. 67-D.Dalman FUMBLES at PIT 35, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 38.
  3. Q1 · 4:08PIT +15% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Elliott [99-L.Ogunjobi] at PIT 49. 25-D.Elliott to PIT 49 for no gain.
  4. Q4 · 7:10PIT +11% win prob(7:10) (No Huddle) 2-J.Fields left guard to ATL 6 for no gain (53-N.Landman).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:09ATL Field goal

    (9:09) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — ATL 3
  2. Q1 · 4:42PIT Field goal

    (4:42) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — ATL 3
  3. Q2 · 12:58PIT Field goal

    (12:58) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — ATL 3
  4. Q2 · 0:38ATL Touchdown

    (:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 8-K.Pitts for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — ATL 10
  5. Q2 · 0:03PIT Field goal

    (:03) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: PIT 9 — ATL 10
  6. Q3 · 7:50PIT Field goal

    (7:50) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: PIT 12 — ATL 10
  7. Q3 · 0:29PIT Field goal

    (:29) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: PIT 15 — ATL 10
  8. Q4 · 0:31PIT Field goal

    (:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-13-S.Miller.

    Score after this play: PIT 18 — ATL 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersFalcons
Offensive plays6649
Total yards270 (edge)226
Yards per play4.14.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.10 (edge)-0.35
Success rate39%43% (edge)
Dropback rate45%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.41
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20 (edge)-0.28
Third downs8/17 (edge)2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)44
First downs gained on snaps15 (edge)14
Sacks taken22
Turnovers0 (edge)4

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Justin FieldsQB

17/23, 156 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

16/26, 155 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.1 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

20 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

18 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

6/7 for 85 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Ray-Ray McCloudWR

4/7 for 52 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 3013595:54Field goal +3
2PITPIT 3011314:29Field goal +3
3ATLATL 30390:35Interception
4PITPIT 4910186:08Field goal +3
5ATLATL 289223:56Punt
6PITPIT 229385:08Punt
7ATLATL 1010853:18Touchdown +7
8PITPIT 305450:32Field goal +3
9PITPIT 305-92:04Punt
10ATLATL 495192:27Fumble
11PITPIT 389192:44Field goal +3
12ATLATL 30753:56Punt
13PITPIT 325563:24Field goal +3
14ATLATL 30551:08Punt
15PITPIT 2213727:08Turnover on downs
16ATLATL 64111:56Punt
17PITPIT 384-111:53Punt
18ATLATL 402130:46Interception
19PITATL 187112:06Field goal +3
20ATLATL 304-20:28End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields17/23156002-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris20703.50-1.8
Justin Fields14574.10-0.5
Cordarrelle Patterson4133.30-1.2
Jaylen Warren273.500.1
George Pickens1-10-10.00-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens6785032%6.2
Pat Freiermuth4427018%0.6
Jaylen Warren221309%-0.8
Najee Harris12909%0.2
MyCole Pruitt12909%0.3
Calvin Austin12709%-1.3
Darnell Washington11505%0.3
Van Jefferson12109%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Minkah Fitzpatrick510.000
Alex Highsmith050.001
DeShon Elliott130.012
T.J. Watt221.000
Beanie Bishop400.000
Damontae Kazee300.000
Larry Ogunjobi120.000
Montravius Adams211.000
Cameron Heyward120.000
Joey Porter210.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins16/26155122-11.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson18683.80-0.8
Tyler Allgeier3217.000.5
Kirk Cousins100.00-6.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ray-Ray McCloud4752030%-6.2
Bijan Robinson5543022%2.6
Kyle Pitts3326113%2.1
Darnell Mooney1315013%-0.3
Drake London2315013%-4.4
Charlie Woerner12409%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaden Elliss350.000
Nate Landman420.000
Troy Andersen510.000
Matt Judon240.500
Lorenzo Carter410.000
Jessie Bates500.000
A.J. Terrell500.000
James Smith-Williams230.000
Mike Hughes400.000
Arnold Ebiketie210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -4
Closing total
43
PIT moneyline
+160
ATL moneyline
-192

Falcons closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 28 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
PIT 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Raheem Morris