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Pittsburgh Steelers 18 at Atlanta Falcons 10. Final.
Falcons -4 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 18, Falcons 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:47, 1st and 10, on Donte Jackson — 26.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:47 · 1st and 10
Donte Jackson
Steelers
(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
U 43 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 18–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:47, Steelers +26.7% win probability on one snap.
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeShon ElliottSteelersQ1 4:08(4:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Elliott [99-L.Ogunjobi] at PIT 49. 25-D.Elliott to PIT 49 for no gain.
14.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersQ3 10:34(10:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins Aborted. 67-D.Dalman FUMBLES at PIT 35, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 38.
15.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 9 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Steelers153 of 166 plays carry both curves
(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Swing −26.7 for FalconsExpected points −7.28 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 149
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:47PIT +27% win prob(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
3rd · 10:34PIT +16% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins Aborted. 67-D.Dalman FUMBLES at PIT 35, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 38.
1st · 4:08PIT +15% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Elliott [99-L.Ogunjobi] at PIT 49. 25-D.Elliott to PIT 49 for no gain.
4th · 7:10PIT +11% win prob(7:10) (No Huddle) 2-J.Fields left guard to ATL 6 for no gain (53-N.Landman).
2nd · 0:09ATL +11% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens pushed ob at ATL 17 for 41 yards (24-A.Terrell). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens pushed ob at ATL 25 for 33 yards (3-J.Bates).
4th · 4:23PIT +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 56-yard field goal with 7:50 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:09Younghoe Koo·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+30–3
1st4:42Chris Boswell·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap C.Kuntz+33–3
2nd12:58Chris Boswell·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap C.Kuntz+36–3
2nd0:03Chris Boswell·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap C.Kuntz+39–10
3rd7:50Chris Boswell·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+312–10
3rd0:29Chris Boswell·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap C.Kuntz+315–10
4th0:31Chris Boswell·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder S.Miller · snap C.Kuntz+318–10
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryFalcons
Steelers4–3Falcons
270Total yards226
4.1Yards per play4.6
39%Success rate43%
47%Third-down rate22%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays4
15First downs14
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers4
The read
Steelers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.35Falcons: −0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Steelers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.41Falcons: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Steelers: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.28Falcons: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 66 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Falcons’s 49 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Falcons 2.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's play-action rate, 3.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 11 pts
leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons13.3%
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NotePIT's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 23.1 points above their season mean of 26.9% and 1.9 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
65Dan Moore Jr.T · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%68 snaps
74Spencer AndersonT · Every snap100%68 snaps
78James DanielsG · Every snap100%68 snaps
2Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
54Zach FrazierC · Every snap100%68 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
11Van JeffersonWR · Heavy rotation72%49 snaps
14George PickensWR · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
81MyCole PruittTE · Heavy rotation59%40 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation56%38 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
19Calvin Austin IIIWR · Rotational41%28 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Rotational31%21 snaps
13Scott MillerWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Situational13%9 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 5
Dean LowryDEIsaac SeumaloGRussell WilsonQBJalen ElliottSSRoman WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kyle AllenQBTroy FautanuT
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%56 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%56 snaps
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%56 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Every snap100%56 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%56 snaps
18Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time96%54 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Full-time95%53 snaps
1Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time95%53 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Full-time89%50 snaps
34Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Heavy rotation54%30 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational41%23 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Situational18%10 snaps
68Kyle HintonG · Situational5%3 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational4%2 snaps
85Ross DwelleyTE · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Antonio HamiltonCBBrandon DorlusDERuke OrhorhoroDEJovaughn GwynGJase McClellanRBCasey WashingtonWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Q4 2:47 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at PIT 47 · gained nothing · -7.28 EP · −25.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 90 yards from the ATL 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
42%
Yards
496
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.2944%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.2378%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.5032%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR20+0.1025%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1547%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Steelers0Falcons3
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Steelers 6
Steelers3Falcons3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Falcons 39
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Falcons 34
2nd quarter43 plays
Steelers6Falcons3
Field goal4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 28 to midfield
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Steelers 47
Steelers6Falcons9
Steelers6Falcons10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Steelers 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Steelers9Falcons10
Field goal6 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Falcons 25
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 36
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Steelers 32
Steelers12Falcons10
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Falcons 38
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 38
Steelers15Falcons10
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Falcons 22
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Falcons 6
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 6 to the Falcons 13
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Steelers 47
Steelers18Falcons10
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
