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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 1
It turned at Q4 2:47, 1st and 10, on Donte Jackson — 26.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 18–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:47, Steelers +26.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:47 · 1st and 10
Donte Jackson
Steelers
(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 9 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Boswell's 56-yard field goal with 7:50 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Chris Boswell56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+312–108 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryFalcons
Steelers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 66 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Falcons’s 49 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Falcons 2.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
ATL's play-action rate, 3.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-10.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 66 snaps
Falcons-11.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their -8.1 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 78%
Tendencies room →Steelers43.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 48 early downs
Falcons48.7%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers50.0%leaned — faked the run · +23.1 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.87× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Falcons3.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.8 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Steelers33.3%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 50.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 62%
Tendencies room →Steelers11.1%leaned — sat back · −18.5 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons20.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Steelers25.9%leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons13.3%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
PIT's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 23.1 points above their season mean of 26.9% and 1.9 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
17/23, 156 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.4 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
16/26, 155 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-11.1 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected
Receiving · ATL
4/7 for 52 yds, 0 TD
30% of team targets · -6.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kyle Pitts banked 5.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.1 | −1.1 | 89% | 89% | 22% | 0% | 18 car, 68 yd · 5/5, 43 yd |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.5 | +2.2 | 68% | 77% | 32% | 73% | 1 car, -10 yd · 6/7, 85 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 11.9 | −4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 156 yd · 14 car, 57 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +5.3 | 96% | 96% | 13% | 17% | 3/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.2 | −2.1 | 54% | 64% | 30% | 45% | 4/7, 52 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 8.9 | −4.8 | 56% | 43% | 9% | 0% | 20 car, 70 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | +1.1 | 74% | 80% | 18% | 9% | 4/4, 27 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 6.2 | −2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/26, 155 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 4.0 | +0.1 | 31% | 47% | 9% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.5 | 100% | 96% | 13% | 17% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −2.1 | 95% | 96% | 13% | 28% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 2.1 | +0.4 | 18% | 14% | 0% | — | 3 car, 21 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.3 | 59% | 50% | 9% | 8% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.1 | 41% | 50% | 9% | 8% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 54% | 43% | 5% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.4 | 41% | 25% | 9% | 3% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 1.3 | −0.8 | 13% | 10% | 0% | — | 4 car, 13 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −2.9 | 72% | 80% | 9% | 1% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
Q4 2:47 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at PIT 47 · gained nothing · -7.28 EP · −25.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 90 yards from the ATL 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Falcons3Steelers3Falcons3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Steelers6Falcons3Steelers6Falcons9Steelers6Falcons10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers9Falcons10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Steelers12Falcons10Steelers15Falcons10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Steelers18Falcons10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 17/23 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Justin Fields | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 | 32% | +6.2 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeShon Elliott |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16/26 | 155 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −11.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_01_PIT_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 28 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 13 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| George Pickens | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| 18% |
| +0.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −1.3 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9% | −2.1 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Beanie Bishop | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montravius Adams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 30% | −6.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 22% | +2.6 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 13% | +2.1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −0.3 |
| Drake London | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −4.4 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Andersen | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Smith-Williams | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
