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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 24, Titans 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:45, 3rd and 6, on Tyrique Stevenson — 40.6 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:45 · 3rd and 6
Tyrique Stevenson
Bears
(7:45) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson [95-D.Walker] at TEN 43. 29-T.Stevenson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bears closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Chicago Bears 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 7:45, Bears +40.6% win probability on one snap.
40.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetTitansQ1 0:416-N.Folk kicks 63 yards from TEN 35 to CHI 2. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 3, RECOVERED by TEN-36-J.Chestnut at CHI 23.
14.8pts
Will LevisBearsQ4 11:54(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 38 for -10 yards (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor) [52-D.Taylor], touched at TEN 33, RECOVERED by CHI-53-T.Edwards at TEN 31.
22.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Bears at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Titans158 of 166 plays carry both curves
(7:45) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson [95-D.Walker] at TEN 43. 29-T.Stevenson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +40.6 for BearsExpected points +8.26 for BearsThe model had Titans 4 points higher than the market did.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:45TEN +41% win prob(7:45) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson [95-D.Walker] at TEN 43. 29-T.Stevenson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:54TEN +23% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 38 for -10 yards (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor) [52-D.Taylor], touched at TEN 33, RECOVERED by CHI-53-T.Edwards at TEN 31.
1st · 0:41TEN +15% win prob6-N.Folk kicks 63 yards from TEN 35 to CHI 2. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 3, RECOVERED by TEN-36-J.Chestnut at CHI 23.
3rd · 9:14TEN +13% win prob(9:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Hardy, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by CHI-36-J.Owens at TEN 21. 36-J.Owens for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:57TEN +8% win prob(6:57) 18-C.Williams sacked at TEN 44 for -19 yards (69-S.Joseph).
4th · 11:40TEN +7% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to TEN 29 for 2 yards (93-T.Sweat, 49-A.Key). PENALTY on CHI-65-C.Shelton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyrique Stevenson's 43-yard touchdown with 7:45 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd14:11Nick Folk·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+310–0
2nd3:50Chigoziem Okonkwo·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Will Levisfrom Will Levis+717–0
2nd0:30Cairo Santos·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+317–3
3rd9:14Jonathan Owens·21-yd return TD21-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+717–10
4th14:51Cairo Santos·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+317–13
4th9:57Cairo Santos·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+317–16
4th7:45Tyrique Stevenson·43-yd defence TD43-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point goodLead never changed again+817–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryBears
Titans6–3Bears
244Total yards152
4.0Yards per play2.9
38%Success rate38%
21%Third-down rate15%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays3
15First downs12
3Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Titans: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.25Bears: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Titans: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.30Bears: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Bears’s 52 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Bears 1.
NoteTitans outgained Bears 244-152 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bears26.3%
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.3%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 17.3% and 1.6 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
W.Levis pass−43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:45) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson [95-D.Walker] at TEN 43. 29-T.Stevenson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:45 · Titans · 3rd & 6 at TEN 45 · gained nothing · -8.26 EP · −43.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 79 yards from the TEN 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
39%
Yards
394
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.3461%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2768%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0656%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.5033%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 23
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 43 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 21
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 25
Titans6Bears0
Titans7Bears0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Bears 26
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Titans10Bears0
Field goal3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to midfield
Titans16Bears0
Titans17Bears0
Touchdown21 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Bears 7
Titans17Bears3
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 47
Titans17Bears9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 38
Titans17Bears10
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 30
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Titans 35
4th quarter43 plays
Titans17Bears13
Field goal3 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Titans 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 49
Titans17Bears16
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Titans17Bears22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 45
Titans17Bears24
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 35
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Titans 42
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Titans 42
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
