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2024 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Washington Commanders

20

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

37

TB -4 ✓O 42 ✓93°F

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:21, WAS +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑WAS ↓
Q1 · 0:21WAS 0 — TB 6WAS ball · 4th & 3TB 72%

(:21) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 0:21WAS +9% win prob(:21) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
  2. Q2 · 7:23TB +8% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 10:59TB +6% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 15:00TB +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:39TB Field goal

    (11:39) 4-C.McLaughlin 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — TB 3
  2. Q1 · 5:11TB Field goal

    (5:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — TB 6
  3. Q2 · 10:59TB Touchdown

    (10:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — TB 13
  4. Q2 · 7:23WAS Touchdown

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — TB 13
  5. Q2 · 0:20TB Field goal

    (:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — TB 16
  6. Q3 · 7:15TB Touchdown

    (7:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — TB 23
  7. Q3 · 1:55WAS Touchdown

    (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — TB 23
  8. Q4 · 15:00TB Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — TB 30
  9. Q4 · 3:34TB Touchdown

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — TB 37
  10. Q4 · 1:16WAS Touchdown

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — TB 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersBuccaneers
Offensive plays5659
Total yards301394 (edge)
Yards per play5.46.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.120.27 (edge)
Success rate48%53% (edge)
Dropback rate61%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.170.62 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.04 (edge)-0.22
Third downs3/99/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)19
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers00

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

24/30, 289 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

20.6 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

17/24, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.7 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

16 att, 88 yds, 2 TD

8.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

9 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

8/8 for 83 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

6/6 for 75 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 308273:26Field goal +3
2WASWAS 30582:04Punt
3TBTB 389514:22Field goal +3
4WASWAS 3011514:52Missed field goal
5TBTB 379734:23Touchdown +7
6WASWAS 2610633:36Touchdown +7
7TBTB 4014547:01Field goal +3
8WASWAS 28200:16End of half
9WASWAS 3013275:39Missed field goal
10TBTB 466282:10Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 30550:51Punt
12TBTB 244-21:32Punt
13WASWAS 407602:56Touchdown +7
14TBTB 287721:57Touchdown +7
15WASWAS 257173:48Punt
16TBTB 913917:38Touchdown +7
17WASWAS 3012702:17Touchdown +6
18TBWAS 47301:12End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels17/24184002-1.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels16885.528.7
Brian Robinson12403.31-0.6
Austin Ekeler2105.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Austin Ekeler4452017%2.6
Brian Robinson3449017%2.0
Zach Ertz3428017%0.8
Luke McCaffrey3318013%-0.4
Terry McLaurin2417017%-0.5
Olamide Zaccheaus1315013%-1.9
Jamison Crowder11504%0.2
John Bates01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner550.000
Quan Martin610.000
Benjamin St-Juste500.001
Mike Sainristil410.000
Frankie Luvu140.000
Emmanuel Forbes220.000
Jamin Davis210.000
Jeremy Chinn210.000
Clelin Ferrell201.000
Mykal Walker110.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield24/3028940120.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving9626.900.8
Rachaad White15312.10-5.8
Baker Mayfield3217.000.5
Kameron Johnson100.00-0.5
Kyle Trask2-2-1.00-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Godwin8883127%9.7
Rachaad White6675020%5.4
Mike Evans5661220%6.8
Jalen McMillan1332110%0.9
Trey Palmer121907%0.9
Bucky Irving2314010%-0.0
Cade Otton12507%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Whitehead440.001
Antoine Winfield430.000
SirVocea Dennis521.000
Lavonte David420.000
Jamel Dean410.000
K.J. Britt220.000
Joe Tryon201.000
C.J. Brewer110.000
Christian Izien200.001
Vita Vea110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -4
Closing total
42
WAS moneyline
+164
TB moneyline
-198

Buccaneers closed -4 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 42; the game landed 57 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
93°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
WAS 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Todd Bowles