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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Commanders155 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:21) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Swing +9.2 for BuccaneersExpected points +3.74 for BuccaneersThe model had Commanders 5 points higher than the market did.play 36
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:21WAS +9% win prob(:21) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
2nd · 7:23TB +8% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:59TB +6% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00TB +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:44TB +6% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to WAS 17 for 19 yards (25-B.St-Juste).
1st · 8:12TB +6% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at WAS 21 for 24 yards [93-J.Allen].
1st · 2:40TB +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 56-yard field goal with 11:39 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:39Chase McLaughlin·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap E.DeckersLead never changed again+30–3
1st5:11Chase McLaughlin·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap E.Deckers+30–6
4th1:16Jayden Daniels·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+620–37
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Commanders1–6Buccaneers
301Total yards394
5.4Yards per play6.7
48%Success rate53%
33%Third-down rate69%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
21First downs19
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Commanders: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.27Buccaneers: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Commanders: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.62Buccaneers: +0.62 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Commanders: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.22Buccaneers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 56 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Buccaneers 6.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Buccaneers5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 9.6 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.6 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Robinson left+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:23) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 7:23 · Commanders · 2nd & 6 at TB 7 · gained 7 · +2.24 EP · +11.1% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 91 yards from the TB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
51%
Yards
691
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.3856%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1456%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0941%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3833%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Commanders0Buccaneers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Commanders 38
Punt5 plays
Commanders0Buccaneers6
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Commanders 16
No good11 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Commanders0Buccaneers12
Commanders0Buccaneers13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Commanders 17
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Commanders6Buccaneers13
Commanders7Buccaneers13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Buccaneers 7
Commanders7Buccaneers16
Field goal16 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Commanders 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
No good16 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 36
Commanders7Buccaneers22
Commanders7Buccaneers23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Commanders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 35
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 31
Commanders13Buccaneers23
Commanders14Buccaneers23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Commanders 35
4th quarter40 plays
Commanders14Buccaneers29
Commanders14Buccaneers30
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 48
Commanders14Buccaneers36
Commanders14Buccaneers37
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Commanders 1
Commanders20Buccaneers37
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -4
Closing total
42
Commanders moneyline
+164
Buccaneers moneyline
-198
Buccaneers closed -4 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 42; the game landed 57 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the south-west; 0.07 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Todd Bowles
(2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles left end ran ob at TB 36 for 17 yards.
3rd · 7:20TB +4% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.McMillan. PENALTY on WAS-13-E.Forbes, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at WAS 30 - No Play. PENALTY on WAS-13-E.Forbes, Face Mask, 4 yards, enforced between downs.
