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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 16, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q4 0:27, 1st and 10, on Jessie Bates — 39.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, Falcons +39.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:27 · 1st and 10
Jessie Bates
Falcons
(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
39.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 9 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Eagles at 6 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 1 giveaway.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Drake London's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:38 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Darnell Mooney41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousins · two-point no good+615–10Drake London7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+722–219 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryEagles
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Eagles 5.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ATL's play-action rate turned over: 3.7% in week 1 against 21.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-10.0 ptsright on their number · −2.0 vs their -8.1 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 56 snaps
Eagles-6.3 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 79%
Tendencies room →Falcons46.7%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 45 early downs
Eagles45.1%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 47%
Tendencies room →Falcons21.9%leaned — faked the run · +7.3 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Eagles25.7%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Falcons40.0%right on their number · −10.7 vs their 50.7%, and they swing ±32.2 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles60.0%inside their normal wobble · +13.9 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±24.7 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 59%
Tendencies room →Falcons31.4%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Eagles18.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Falcons14.3%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Eagles6.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
ATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 21.9%, 7.3 points above their season mean of 14.5% and 1.1 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
20/29, 241 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.1 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
23/30, 183 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.8 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Darnell Mooney banked 4.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 23.8 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/30, 183 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 13 car, 85 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | +1.9 | 100% | 100% | 34% | 60% | 7/10, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Featured Receiver | 17.8 | +4.8 | 100% | 100% | 24% | 48% | 3/7, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 17.6 | −4.5 | 90% | 94% | 17% | 2% | 22 car, 95 yd · 4/5, 21 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | +0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 241 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, -1 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 17.4 | +3.6 | 97% | 100% | 24% | 22% | 6/7, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 16.2 | +1.4 | 75% | 88% | 17% | 0% | 14 car, 97 yd · 4/5, 25 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | −0.9 | 32% | 49% | 21% | 6% | 6/6, 23 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 7.5 | +0.6 | 21% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 9 car, 53 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −3.8 | 100% | 100% | 17% | 23% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/5, 42 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −0.3 | 97% | 100% | 14% | 21% | 3/4, 38 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −2.5 | 74% | 84% | 14% | 6% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.7 | 39% | 23% | 7% | 8% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 79% | 86% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 0.6 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 27% | 20% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
Q4 0:27 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 43 · gained nothing · -0.73 EP · −34.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 82 yards from the ATL 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons3
Eagles0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Falcons3Eagles6Falcons3Eagles7Falcons6Eagles7How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Falcons9Eagles7Falcons9Eagles10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons15Eagles10Falcons15Eagles16Falcons15Eagles18How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Falcons15Eagles21How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons21Eagles21Falcons22Eagles21How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/29 | 241 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 97 | 6.9 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 24% | +4.2 |
| Drake London | 6 | 7 | 54 | 1 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Bates | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kaden Elliss | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Andersen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/30 | 183 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_ATL_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 43 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| +2.7 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 17% | +4.4 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 17% | −0.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 14% | −1.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hughes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 85 | 6.5 | 1 | +8.9 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 34% | +3.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 14% | −1.9 |
| Britain Covey | 6 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 21% | +0.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 17% | +2.3 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +1.1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Milton Williams | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Booker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
