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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 16, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
FalconsAtlanta22
BY 1final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia21
Atlanta Falcons 22 at Philadelphia Eagles 21. Final.
Eagles -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 2
Atlanta Falcons 22, Eagles 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:27, 1st and 10, on Jessie Bates — 39.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:27 · 1st and 10
Jessie Bates
Falcons
(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
U 46.5 ✓
Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, Falcons +39.5% win probability on one snap.
39.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darnell MooneyFalconsQ3 1:29(1:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.5pts
Drake LondonFalconsQ4 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
16.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 9 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Eagles at 6 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 1 giveaway.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Falcons159 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
Swing −39.5 for EaglesExpected points −0.73 for EaglesThe model had Falcons 8 points higher than the market did.play 168
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:27ATL +39% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
3rd · 1:29PHI +21% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:38PHI +16% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
3rd · 2:12PHI +12% win prob(2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 34-R.McCloud to PHI 41 for 12 yards (53-Z.Baun).
4th · 5:42ATL +12% win prob(5:42) (No Huddle) 7-B.Robinson right guard to ATL 39 for no gain (8-C.Gardner-Johnson). ** Injury Update: PHI-29-A.Maddox has returned to the game.
4th · 7:09PHI +12% win prob(7:09) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to ATL 1 for 4 yards (3-J.Bates).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Drake London's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:38 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd11:27Younghoe Koo·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–0
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Falcons: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.12Eagles: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Falcons: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.21Eagles: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Falcons: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.02Eagles: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Eagles 5.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's play-action rate turned over: 3.7% in week 1 against 21.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Eagles6.3%
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 21.9%, 7.3 points above their season mean of 14.5% and 1.1 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
34Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Every snap100%61 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%61 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%61 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%61 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%61 snaps
1Darnell MooneyWR · Every snap100%61 snaps
18Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation74%45 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational26%16 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Situational21%13 snaps
26Avery WilliamsRB · Situational3%2 snaps
85Ross DwelleyTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Antonio HamiltonCBBrandon DorlusDERuke OrhorhoroDEJovaughn GwynGJase McClellanRBBrandon ParkerT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Michael Penix Jr.QBCasey WashingtonWR
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%71 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%71 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Every snap100%71 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%71 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time97%69 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time90%64 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation79%56 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational39%28 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Rotational32%23 snaps
89Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational27%19 snaps
80Parris CampbellWR · Situational21%15 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Situational10%7 snaps
84E.J. JenkinsTE · Situational3%2 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Eli RicksCBByron YoungDTTrevor KeeganGDevin WhiteILBTanner McKeeQBDarian KinnardTA.J. BrownWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
Q4 0:27 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 43 · gained nothing · -0.73 EP · −34.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 82 yards from the ATL 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
46%
Yards
752
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.1554%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1353%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2632%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Falcons 48
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 28
The period ended11 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Falcons 9
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Falcons 31
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Falcons3Eagles0
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 46 to the Eagles 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Falcons3Eagles6
Falcons3Eagles7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Falcons 4
Falcons6Eagles7
Field goal21 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Eagles 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Falcons9Eagles7
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Eagles 8
Falcons9Eagles10
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Falcons 6
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Falcons15Eagles10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Eagles 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 33
4th quarter53 plays
Falcons15Eagles16
Falcons15Eagles18
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Falcons 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 39
Falcons15Eagles21
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Falcons 10
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Falcons21Eagles21
Falcons22Eagles21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Eagles 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 43
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -5.5
Closing total
46.5
Falcons moneyline
+215
Eagles moneyline
-265
Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 43 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Falcons 8 days · Eagles 10 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Nick Sirianni
4th · 0:56PHI +12% win prob(:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-D.Mooney ran ob at PHI 12 for 26 yards (53-Z.Baun).
2nd · 8:43PHI +10% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right guard to ATL 18 for 23 yards (20-D.Alford). PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
