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2024 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 16, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field

Atlanta FalconsWinner

22

Philadelphia Eagles

21

PHI -5.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, ATL +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PHIATL
Q4 · 0:27ATL 22PHI 21PHI ball · 1st & 10PHI 57%

(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:27ATL +39% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 32. 3-J.Bates to ATL 32 for no gain (18-B.Covey).
  2. Q3 · 1:29PHI +21% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:38PHI +16% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
  4. Q3 · 2:12PHI +12% win prob(2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 34-R.McCloud to PHI 41 for 12 yards (53-Z.Baun).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 11:27ATL Field goal

    (11:27) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 3PHI 0
  2. Q2 · 5:20PHI Touchdown

    (5:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-G.Jarrett]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 3PHI 7
  3. Q2 · 0:09ATL Field goal

    (:09) 6-Y.Koo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 6PHI 7
  4. Q3 · 10:16ATL Field goal

    (10:16) 6-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 9PHI 7
  5. Q3 · 4:31PHI Field goal

    (4:31) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: ATL 9PHI 10
  6. Q3 · 1:29ATL Touchdown

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ATL 15PHI 10
  7. Q4 · 6:51PHI Touchdown

    (6:51) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 15PHI 18
  8. Q4 · 1:42PHI Field goal

    (1:42) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: ATL 15PHI 21
  9. Q4 · 0:38ATL Touchdown

    (:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 22PHI 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsEagles
Offensive plays5768
Total yards387 (edge)368
Yards per play6.8 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.15 (edge)0.12
Success rate47% (edge)47%
Dropback rate56%51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.020.02 (edge)
Third downs2/96/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps2123 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

20/29, 241 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.1 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

23/30, 183 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.8 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

14 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

22 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Darnell MooneyWR

3/7 for 88 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

7/10 for 76 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PHIPHI 336243:00Punt
2ATLATL 86202:05Punt
3PHIPHI 3610555:17Turnover on downs
4ATLATL 96222:44Punt
5PHIPHI 25461:37Punt
6ATLATL 278533:55Field goal +3
7PHIPHI 3013806:07Touchdown +7
8ATLATL 1416895:09Field goal +3
9PHIPHI 30200:06End of half
10ATLATL 3010544:48Field goal +3
11PHIPHI 3012645:44Field goal +3
12ATLATL 309703:07Touchdown +6
13PHIPHI 3019879:34Touchdown +8
14ATLATL 30591:09Turnover on downs
15PHIATL 3911393:59Field goal +3
16ATLATL 308701:05Touchdown +7
17PHIPHI 303130:15Interception
18ATLATL 32200:19End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 89 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins20/292412019.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson14976.900.1
Tyler Allgeier9535.901.4
Ray-Ray McCloud133.00-0.3
Kirk Cousins4-1-0.30-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Darnell Mooney3788124%4.2
Drake London6754124%2.7
Ray-Ray McCloud3542017%4.4
Bijan Robinson4525017%-0.5
Kyle Pitts3420014%-1.2
Tyler Allgeier111203%1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jessie Bates650.012
Kaden Elliss650.000
Troy Andersen440.000
A.J. Terrell600.000
Matt Judon331.000
Justin Simmons320.000
Dee Alford410.001
Mike Hughes220.001
Arnold Ebiketie120.000
Grady Jarrett200.000

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts23/301831111.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Saquon Barkley22954.30-1.9
Jalen Hurts13856.518.9
Kenneth Gainwell263.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeVonta Smith71076134%3.1
Dallas Goedert3438014%-1.9
Britain Covey6623021%0.3
Saquon Barkley4521017%2.3
Grant Calcaterra221907%1.1
Jahan Dotson11603%0.1
Johnny Wilson01003%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zack Baun620.000
Reed Blankenship710.000
Nakobe Dean520.000
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson330.000
Darius Slay220.000
Josh Sweat220.000
Quinyon Mitchell210.001
Milton Williams201.000
Jordan Davis110.001
Thomas Booker200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Closing total
46.5
ATL moneyline
+215
PHI moneyline
-265

Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 43 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
71°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
ATL 8 days · PHI 10 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Nick Sirianni