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2024 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 12, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
31
10
Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:03, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
How the points landed
(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 0(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 7(12:45) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — MIA 7(6:28) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — MIA 7(3:45) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 24 — MIA 7(:08) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: BUF 24 — MIA 10(9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left INTERCEPTED by 46-J.Ingram [57-A.Epenesa] at MIA 31. 46-J.Ingram for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 31 — MIA 10Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Bills | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 42 | 75 |
| Total yards | 250 | 351 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (edge) | 4.7 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.23 (edge) | -0.27 |
| Success rate | 43% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 48% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.54 (edge) | -0.34 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.05 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 3/9 | 7/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 3 |
Dolphins outgained Bills 351–250 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
17/25, 145 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-10.7 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
13/19, 139 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
11.2 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 30 | 7 | 9 | 2:44 | Interception | |
| 2 | BUF | MIA 37 | 7 | 37 | 2:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 30 | 12 | 80 | 6:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 30 | 5 | 9 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 16 | 3 | 13 | 1:19 | Interception | |
| 6 | BUF | MIA 44 | 7 | 19 | 3:00 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 30 | 5 | 17 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 15 | 9 | 75 | 4:29 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 30 | 6 | 19 | 2:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | BUF | MIA 49 | 2 | 49 | 0:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 30 | 14 | 54 | 3:32 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 30 | 2 | 0 | 0:04 | End of half | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 33 | 7 | 17 | 2:50 | Punt | |
| 14 | MIA | MIA 11 | 5 | 19 | 2:43 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 30 | 15 | 55 | 6:47 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 15 | 6 | 20 | 3:26 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 20 | 6 | 26 | 2:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | BUF | MIA 41 | 7 | 14 | 3:53 | Missed field goal | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 35 | 11 | 59 | 5:52 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 12 | 4 | 10 | 2:02 | End of game |
6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/19 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 2 | 3.7 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 28% | 7.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 22% | 2.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damar Hamlin | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylon Spector | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/25 | 145 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -10.7 |
| Skylar Thompson | 8/14 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.6 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 6% | 4.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11% | -0.8 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.7 |
| Keon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.6 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6% | -0.8 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Devon Achane | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 3.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Alec Ingold | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 7 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 19% | 6.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 19% | 1.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11% | 3.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 16% | -1.7 |
| Grant DuBose | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | -3.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 0.5 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11% | -8.4 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -1.0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinton Bell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
