For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:30 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 12, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BillsBuffalo31
BY 21final margin
DolphinsMiami10
Buffalo Bills 31 at Miami Dolphins 10. Final.
Dolphins -2.5 upsetU 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 2
Buffalo Bills 31, Dolphins 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:03, 3rd and 4, on Jaylen Waddle — 10.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:03 · 3rd and 4
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:03, Dolphins +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ja'Marcus IngramBillsQ1 12:26(12:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 88-G.DuBose INTERCEPTED by 46-J.Ingram at BUF 38. 46-J.Ingram to MIA 37 for 25 yards (0-B.Berrios, 9-J.Smith).
9.4pts
James CookBillsQ1 9:55(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.54 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bills149 of 163 plays carry both curves
(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Swing +10.9 for DolphinsExpected points +2.28 for DolphinsThe model had Bills 5 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:03MIA +11% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
1st · 9:55MIA +10% win prob(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:26BUF +9% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 88-G.DuBose INTERCEPTED by 46-J.Ingram at BUF 38. 46-J.Ingram to MIA 37 for 25 yards (0-B.Berrios, 9-J.Smith).
2nd · 7:11MIA +9% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 26-Ty.Johnson to MIA 1 for 33 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
1st · 0:47BUF +9% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right intended for 84-R.Chosen INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at 50. 47-C.Benford pushed ob at MIA 44 for 6 yards (84-R.Chosen). ** Injury Update: BUF-99-C.Toohill has returned to the game.
2nd · 3:50BUF +7% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 49 for -6 yards (91-E.Oliver).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 43-yard field goal with 12:45 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Dolphins ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.27Dolphins: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.54Bills: +0.54 expected points added per play
−0.34Dolphins: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Bills: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.16Dolphins: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 42 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 75 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Dolphins 4.
NoteDolphins outgained Bills 351-250 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 2 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
MIA's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, sat 12.6 points below their season number of 12.6% — they stayed blocked by 2.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 1.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Dolphins0.0%
off script — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−2.11× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 12.6% and 2.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:55 · Bills · 4th & 3 at MIA 17 · gained 17 · +4.40 EP · +11.7% win probability
147 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 85 yards from the BUF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
598
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.4368%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1654%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19-0.2937%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1750%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.460%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.2120%
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 42
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bills6Dolphins0
Bills7Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 16
Bills7Dolphins6
Bills7Dolphins7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 39
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Dolphins 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Bills10Dolphins7
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Dolphins 25
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 37
Bills16Dolphins7
Bills17Dolphins7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Dolphins 1
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 44
Bills23Dolphins7
Bills24Dolphins7
Touchdown2 plays
Bills24Dolphins10
Field goal19 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 33 to midfield
Bills30Dolphins10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 30
Bills31Dolphins10
The period ended16 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 28
4th quarter36 plays
Punt2 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 42
No good9 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 24
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Bills 11
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 22
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -2.5
Closing total
48.5
Bills moneyline
+114
Dolphins moneyline
-135
Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 81°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Bills 4 days · Dolphins 4 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike McDaniel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 9:37BUF +7% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left INTERCEPTED by 46-J.Ingram [57-A.Epenesa] at MIA 31. 46-J.Ingram for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:13MIA +6% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 35 for 21 yards (21-J.Poyer). PENALTY on MIA-21-J.Poyer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 35.
