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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 12, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q1 5:03, 3rd and 4, on Jaylen Waddle — 10.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:03, Dolphins +10.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:03 · 3rd and 4
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.54 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Bass's 43-yard field goal with 12:45 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Tyler Bass43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+310–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 42 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 75 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Dolphins 4.
Dolphins outgained Bills 351-250 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 2 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
MIA's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, sat 12.6 points below their season number of 12.6% — they stayed blocked by 2.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-2.2 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 42 snaps
Dolphins-15.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.4 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 75 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Bills37.5%leaned — ran early · −14.6 vs their 52.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 32 early downs
Dolphins50.9%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 52%
Tendencies room →Bills10.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Dolphins6.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −18.0 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Bills33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins75.0%leaned — went for it · +31.5 vs their 43.5%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 65%
Tendencies room →Bills9.1%leaned — sat back · −13.4 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Dolphins45.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 28%
Tendencies room →Bills11.4%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Dolphins0.0%off script — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−2.11× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
MIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 12.6% and 2.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
17/25, 145 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-10.7 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
13/19, 139 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
11.2 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James Cook banked 19.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 29.5 | +4.7 | 62% | 48% | 19% | 2% | 22 car, 96 yd · 7/7, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 28.5 | +19.3 | 47% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 11 car, 78 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | +1.4 | 42% | 68% | 19% | 13% | 6/7, 53 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.6 | +1.1 | 69% | 85% | 28% | 34% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/5, 54 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 9.8 | −1.5 | 91% | — | 0% | — | 13/19, 139 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +0.5 | 72% | 66% | 11% | 10% | 1 car, 4 yd · 4/4, 41 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | +1.2 | 42% | 75% | 22% | 0% | 4/4, 33 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −4.4 | 68% | 66% | 16% | 26% | 1 car, 12 yd · 3/6, 24 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 5.5 | −7.7 | 72% | — | 0% | — | 17/25, 145 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 2 car, 17 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 4.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray DavisRB · Committee Back | 3.8 | −1.6 | 31% | 10% | 6% | 0% | 9 car, 29 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Skylar ThompsonQB | 3.6 | −5.8 | 28% | — | 0% | — | 8/14, 80 yd · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 3.2 | +0.3 | 14% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Grant DuBoseWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −2.8 | 34% | 41% | 8% | 17% | 1/3, 13 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 43% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −7.0 | 22% | 32% | 11% | 16% | 1/4, 5 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −3.0 | 27% | 40% | 11% | 17% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 0.4 | −2.2 | 24% | 27% | 0% | — | 5 car, 4 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 0.2 | −0.5 | 32% | 18% | 0% | — | 2 car, 2 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 91% | 90% | 6% | 17% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 71% | 80% | 6% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.8 | 37% | 20% | 5% | 13% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 45% | 59% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:55 · Bills · 4th & 3 at MIA 17 · gained 17 · +4.40 EP · +11.7% win probability
147 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 85 yards from the BUF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bills6
Dolphins0Bills7Dolphins0Bills7Dolphins6Bills7Dolphins7Bills10Dolphins7Bills16Dolphins7Bills17Dolphins7Bills23Dolphins7Bills24Dolphins7Bills24Dolphins10Bills30Dolphins10Bills31Dolphins10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/19 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Josh Allen |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 28% | +7.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damar Hamlin | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylon Spector | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/25 | 145 | 1 | 3 | 1 | −10.7 |
| Skylar Thompson | 8/14 | 80 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_BUF_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +2.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 11% | +3.6 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 6% | +4.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11% | −0.8 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.7 |
| Keon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.6 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Christian Benford | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Alec Ingold | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 7 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 19% | +6.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 19% | +1.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11% | +3.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 16% | −1.7 |
| Grant DuBose | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | −3.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11% | −8.4 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinton Bell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
