2024 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 12, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Miami Dolphins

MIA -2.5 upsetU 48.5 ✓Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:03, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:03BUF 7 — MIA 0MIA ball · 3rd & 4BUF 56%

(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:03MIA +11% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to BUF 1 for 17 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q1 · 9:55MIA +10% win prob(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:26BUF +9% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 88-G.DuBose INTERCEPTED by 46-J.Ingram at BUF 38. 46-J.Ingram to MIA 37 for 25 yards (0-B.Berrios, 9-J.Smith).
Q2 · 7:11MIA +9% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 26-Ty.Johnson to MIA 1 for 33 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:55BUF Touchdown
(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 0
Q1 · 3:28MIA Touchdown
(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — MIA 7
Q2 · 12:45BUF Field goal
(12:45) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — MIA 7
Q2 · 6:28BUF Touchdown
(6:28) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — MIA 7
Q2 · 3:45BUF Touchdown
(3:45) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 24 — MIA 7
Q2 · 0:08MIA Field goal
(:08) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: BUF 24 — MIA 10
Q3 · 9:37BUF Touchdown
(9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left INTERCEPTED by 46-J.Ingram [57-A.Epenesa] at MIA 31. 46-J.Ingram for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 31 — MIA 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Dolphins
Offensive plays	42	75
Total yards	250	351 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	43%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.54 (edge)	-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	3/9	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Dolphins outgained Bills 351–250 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

17/25, 145 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-10.7 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

13/19, 139 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.2 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

22 att, 96 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

11 att, 78 yds, 2 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

7/7 for 69 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

5/5 for 54 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 30	7	9	2:44	Interception
2	BUF	MIA 37	7	37	2:27	Touchdown +7
3	MIA	MIA 30	12	80	6:28	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 30	5	9	1:21	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 16	3	13	1:19	Interception
6	BUF	MIA 44	7	19	3:00	Field goal +3
7	MIA	MIA 30	5	17	1:47	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 15	9	75	4:29	Touchdown +7
9	MIA	MIA 30	6	19	2:40	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	MIA 49	2	49	0:09	Touchdown +7
11	MIA	MIA 30	14	54	3:32	Field goal +3
12	BUF	BUF 30	2	0	0:04	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 33	7	17	2:50	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 11	5	19	2:43	Defensive touchdown
15	MIA	MIA 30	15	55	6:47	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 15	6	20	3:26	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 20	6	26	2:27	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	MIA 41	7	14	3:53	Missed field goal
19	MIA	MIA 35	11	59	5:52	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 12	4	10	2:02	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	13/19	139	1	0	0	11.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	11	78	7.1	2	3.7
Ray Davis	9	29	3.2	0	-2.7
Josh Allen	2	2	1.0	0	-0.3
Khalil Shakir	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Ty Johnson	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.6
Mitchell Trubisky	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	5	5	54	0	28%	7.2
Dalton Kincaid	4	4	33	0	22%	2.4
Ty Johnson	1	2	33	0	11%	3.6
James Cook	1	1	17	1	6%	4.4
Curtis Samuel	1	2	3	0	11%	-0.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	1	0	0	6%	-1.7
Keon Coleman	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.8
Mack Hollins	0	1	0	0	6%	-1.6
Ray Davis	1	1	-1	0	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Damar Hamlin	7	2	0.0	0	0
Baylon Spector	6	3	0.0	0	0
Dorian Williams	3	5	0.0	0	0
Christian Benford	6	1	0.0	1	1
Rasul Douglas	4	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Lewis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Taylor Rapp	2	2	0.0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	2	0.0	0	0
Ed Oliver	3	0	1.0	0	0
A.J. Epenesa	2	1	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	17/25	145	1	3	1	-10.7
Skylar Thompson	8/14	80	0	0	1	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devon Achane	22	96	4.4	-1.4
Tua Tagovailoa	2	17	8.5	3.7
Tyreek Hill	1	12	12.0	1.4
Skylar Thompson	1	4	4.0	-2.5
Jaylen Waddle	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Jaylen Wright	5	4	0.8	-3.2
Alec Ingold	2	2	1.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Devon Achane	7	7	69	1	19%	6.6
Jonnu Smith	6	7	53	0	19%	1.1
Jaylen Waddle	4	4	41	0	11%	3.9
Tyreek Hill	3	6	24	0	16%	-1.7
Grant DuBose	1	3	13	0	8%	-3.1
Jeffery Wilson	2	2	12	0	5%	0.2
Durham Smythe	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Robbie Chosen	1	4	5	0	11%	-8.4
Julian Hill	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.0
Braxton Berrios	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
David Long Jr.	6	2	0
Jordyn Brooks	4	2	1
Jevon Holland	1	3	0
Jordan Poyer	2	1	0
Jalen Ramsey	1	2	0
Kendall Fuller	1	2	1
Quinton Bell	1	1	0
Kader Kohou	2	0	0
Zach Sieler	1	1	0
Robbie Chosen	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -2.5
Closing total: 48.5
BUF moneyline: +114
MIA moneyline: -135

Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 86°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: BUF 4 days · MIA 4 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.