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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Bears172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Swing +11.6 for TexansExpected points +3.75 for TexansThe model had Bears 9 points higher than the market did.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00HOU +12% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
1st · 1:40HOU +9% win prob(1:40) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-C.Stover pushed ob at CHI 32 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
1st · 6:47HOU +7% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to HOU 26 for 19 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 21-C.Bullock).
2nd · 0:35HOU +7% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:07CHI +6% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 39 for -8 yards (55-D.Hunter).
2nd · 1:11HOU +6% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep middle to 11-D.Carter. PENALTY on HOU-21-C.Bullock, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at HOU 30 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nico Collins's 28-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:25Ka'imi Fairbairn·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+30–3
1st3:55Cairo Santos·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–3
2nd0:06Ka'imi Fairbairn·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+310–16
4th13:43Ka'imi Fairbairn·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+310–19
4th2:56Cairo Santos·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+313–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryTexans
Bears2–7Texans
205Total yards311
3.1Yards per play5.2
32%Success rate35%
35%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays6
10First downs15
7Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Texans ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Bears: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.15Texans: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Bears: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.04Texans: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.50Texans: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 66 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Texans’s 60 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bears 1, Texans 2.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 8.3% in week 1 against 37.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.3% in week 1 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans20.8%
inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteHOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.3%, 13.0 points below their season mean of 23.3% and 1.7 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%70 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%70 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Every snap99%69 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Full-time94%66 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
11DeAndre CarterWR · Heavy rotation71%50 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Rotational36%25 snaps
20Travis HomerRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational14%10 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Situational9%6 snaps
10Tyler ScottWR · Situational4%3 snaps
80Collin JohnsonWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Dominique RobinsonDEKhari BlasingameFBNoah SewellILBKiran AmegadjieTKeenan AllenWRVelus Jones Jr.WR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Bill MurrayGTyson BagentQB
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%62 snaps
76Kenyon GreenG · Every snap100%62 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%62 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%62 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
54Jarrett PattersonC · Every snap100%62 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Full-time84%52 snaps
1Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time81%50 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
3Tank DellWR · Heavy rotation69%43 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Rotational47%29 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Rotational44%27 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Rotational32%20 snaps
87Cade StoverTE · Situational23%14 snaps
22Cam AkersRB · Situational21%13 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Situational15%9 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Situational15%9 snaps
Inactive · 6
Juice ScruggsCJamal HillILBRashad WeaverOLBDameon PierceRBM.J. StewartSSJohn Metchie IIIWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:40) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-C.Stover pushed ob at CHI 32 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q1 1:40 · Texans · 4th & 1 at 50 · gained 18 · +3.17 EP · +12.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 77 yards from the HOU 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
38%
Yards
515
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2371%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0379%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.3838%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.4953%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Bears0Texans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Bears 38
Bears3Texans3
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Texans 24
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Bears 14
2nd quarter54 plays
Bears3Texans9
Bears3Texans10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 36
Bears3Texans13
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Bears 29
Punt11 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 46
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 19
Bears9Texans13
Bears10Texans13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 2
Bears10Texans16
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Bears 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 37
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 33
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Bears 19
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Texans 41
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 35
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 47
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Bears10Texans19
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Bears 34
Intercepted3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 42
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 6 to the Bears 9
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Bears 4
Bears13Texans19
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 3 to the Texans 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 42
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 47
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
