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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:40 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q4 0:48, 4th and 16, on Patrick Mahomes — 40.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 26–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:48, Chiefs +40.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:48 · 4th and 16
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs
(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 4-R.Rice. PENALTY on CIN-33-D.Anthony, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.
40.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 13 on third down, against Chiefs at 1 of 8 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 4-R.Rice. PENALTY on CIN-33-D.Anthony, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Harrison Butker's 51-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Andrei Iosivas3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrow · kick no good, wide right+622–17
Chamarri Conner38-yd defence TD38-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · two-point no good+622–23
Harrison Butker51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+325–2611 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryChiefs
Bengals ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 61 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 60 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Chiefs 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.4 pts in week 1 against −8.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals9.9 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their 7.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 61 snaps
Chiefs-8.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.0 vs their 5.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.94× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 36% to 83%
Tendencies room →Bengals58.7%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 62.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 46 early downs
Chiefs53.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 58.4%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Bengals17.1%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs21.9%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Bengals50.0%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 45.8%, and they swing ±27.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs66.7%leaned — went for it · +36.9 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 60%
Tendencies room →Bengals12.5%leaned — sat back · −15.2 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Chiefs39.0%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Bengals12.5%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Chiefs14.6%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
KC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.0 pts, 13.0 points below their season mean of 5.0 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
23/36, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · KC
18/25, 151 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-9.7 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Rashee Rice banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee RiceWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.5 | +8.4 | 83% | 75% | 26% | 41% | 5/6, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 17.2 | −15.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/36, 258 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 9 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | +0.5 | 47% | 51% | 26% | 28% | 7/9, 91 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 16.1 | −8.5 | 66% | 63% | 22% | 0% | 19 car, 90 yd · 5/5, 21 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.7 | +4.4 | 77% | 78% | 12% | 13% | 2/4, 7 yd, 2 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/25, 151 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 29 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −1.9 | 92% | 93% | 15% | 10% | 4/5, 35 yd |
| Erick AllTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +1.5 | 52% | 46% | 12% | 8% | 4/4, 32 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +1.2 | 52% | 41% | 9% | 4% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Jermaine BurtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +0.3 | 16% | 17% | 6% | 30% | 1/2, 47 yd |
| Zack MossRB · Committee Back | 5.7 | −7.7 | 80% | 80% | 3% | 0% | 12 car, 34 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −3.7 | 68% | 63% | 17% | 28% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/4, 17 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.5 | 45% | 47% | 9% | 13% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Chase BrownRB | 3.1 | +1.2 | 20% | 12% | 0% | — | 4 car, 31 yd |
| Jared WileyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 18% | 13% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −7.9 | 91% | 81% | 13% | 20% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/3, 5 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −15.6 | 55% | 51% | 18% | 10% | 1/6, 5 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 1.3 | −0.2 | 14% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Carson SteeleRB | 0.4 | −5.4 | 22% | 13% | 0% | — | 7 car, 24 yd |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Peyton HendershotTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:03) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q4 0:03 · Chiefs · 4th & 6 at CIN 32 · gained nothing · +1.03 EP · +48.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 70 yards from the KC 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bengals3
Chiefs0Bengals3Chiefs3How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bengals9Chiefs3Bengals10Chiefs3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bengals10Chiefs9Bengals10Chiefs10Bengals13Chiefs10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bengals16Chiefs10Bengals16Chiefs16Bengals16Chiefs17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Bengals22Chiefs17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Bengals22Chiefs23Bengals25Chiefs23How the play was built
A man in motion.
Bengals25Chiefs26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/36 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 | 26% | +8.0 |
| Jermaine Burton | 1 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 6% | +2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine Pratt | 7 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Hill |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 18/25 | 151 | 2 | 2 | 2 | −9.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_CIN_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 15% | −0.8 |
| Erick All | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 12% | +1.3 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 12% | +5.7 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18% | −5.6 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sam Hubbard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cal Adomitis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 90 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Carson Steele | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 | 26% | +3.9 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 22% | −2.4 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 17% | −2.9 |
| Jared Wiley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −6.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Wanya Morris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leo Chenal | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
