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2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

25

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

26

KC -6.5 no coverO 47.5 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 26–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:48, KC +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KCCIN
Q4 · 0:48CIN 25KC 23KC ball · 4th & 16CIN 66%

(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 4-R.Rice. PENALTY on CIN-33-D.Anthony, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:48KC +41% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 4-R.Rice. PENALTY on CIN-33-D.Anthony, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.
  2. Q4 · 0:03KC +40% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
  3. Q4 · 14:52CIN +33% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 34 for 0 yards (sack split by 98-T.Wharton and 51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (98-T.Wharton) [51-M.Danna], RECOVERED by KC-27-C.Conner at CIN 38. 27-C.Conner for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 2:22KC +20% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:44CIN Field goal

    (10:44) 2-E.McPherson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 3KC 0
  2. Q1 · 2:13KC Field goal

    (2:13) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: CIN 3KC 3
  3. Q2 · 12:09CIN Touchdown

    (12:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 10KC 3
  4. Q2 · 8:57KC Touchdown

    (8:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 4-R.Rice for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 10KC 10
  5. Q2 · 4:23CIN Field goal

    (4:23) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 13KC 10
  6. Q2 · 1:37CIN Field goal

    (1:37) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 16KC 10
  7. Q3 · 8:25KC Touchdown

    (8:25) (Shotgun) 64-W.Morris and 54-L.Chenal reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 64-W.Morris for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 16KC 17
  8. Q3 · 2:22CIN Touchdown

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CIN 22KC 17
  9. Q4 · 14:52KC Touchdown

    (14:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 34 for 0 yards (sack split by 98-T.Wharton and 51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (98-T.Wharton) [51-M.Danna], RECOVERED by KC-27-C.Conner at CIN 38. 27-C.Conner for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CIN 22KC 23
  10. Q4 · 9:33CIN Field goal

    (9:33) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 25KC 23
  11. Q4 · 0:03KC Field goal

    (:03) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: CIN 25KC 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsChiefs
Offensive plays6160
Total yards320 (edge)286
Yards per play5.2 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play0.05 (edge)-0.08
Success rate52% (edge)47%
Dropback rate67%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.09 (edge)-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.10 (edge)
Third downs4/13 (edge)1/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)33
First downs gained on snaps1717
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

23/36, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

18/25, 151 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-9.7 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

19 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Zack MossRB

12 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Mike GesickiTE

7/9 for 91 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

5/6 for 75 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 3011664:19Field goal +3
2KCKC 3017698:30Field goal +3
3CINCIN 24591:43Punt
4KCKC 29100:09Interception
5CINKC 318313:15Touchdown +7
6KCKC 308703:14Touchdown +7
7CINCIN 3010414:31Field goal +3
8KCKC 305151:18Fumble
9CINKC 466261:28Field goal +3
10KCKC 307201:19Punt
11CINCIN 1100:14End of half
12KCKC 3015656:39Touchdown +7
13CINCIN 3013726:05Touchdown +6
14KCKC 305132:16Interception
15CINCIN 34300:20Defensive touchdown
16CINCIN 329585:12Field goal +3
17KCKC 305102:31Punt
18CINCIN 168174:22Punt
19KCKC 259242:35Field goal +3

10 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 72 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow23/362582033.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss12342.80-2.6
Chase Brown4317.801.7
Joe Burrow691.50-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Gesicki7991026%8.0
Jermaine Burton124706%2.8
Ja'Marr Chase4535015%-0.8
Erick All4432012%1.3
Drew Sample332809%2.2
Zack Moss111303%1.1
Andrei Iosivas247212%5.7
Trenton Irwin165018%-5.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt790.000
Logan Wilson550.000
Geno Stone320.000
Dax Hill400.000
Akeem Davis-Gaither120.011
Trey Hendrickson302.000
Mike Hilton210.000
Cam Taylor-Britt110.012
Sam Hubbard200.000
Cal Adomitis100.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes18/25151222-9.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco19904.700.9
Patrick Mahomes4297.301.8
Carson Steele7243.402.1
Xavier Worthy155.00-0.1
Travis Kelce111.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashee Rice5675126%3.9
Justin Watson222209%1.4
Isiah Pacheco5521022%-2.4
Xavier Worthy2417017%-2.9
Jared Wiley11704%-0.1
Travis Kelce135013%-6.7
Samaje Perine11304%-1.0
Wanya Morris11114%0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton520.001
Justin Reid340.000
Jaylen Watson330.001
Drue Tranquill240.000
Bryan Cook410.001
Leo Chenal410.000
Chamarri Conner321.000
Trent McDuffie400.001
Michael Danna120.500
George Karlaftis111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -6.5
Closing total
47.5
CIN moneyline
+235
KC moneyline
-290

Chiefs closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
89°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
CIN 7 days · KC 10 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Andy Reid