2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX -3 upsetU 41.5 ✓Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 18–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:48, CLE +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:48CLE 18 — JAX 13JAX ball · 1st & 10CLE 70%

(1:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (91-A.Wright).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:48CLE +21% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (91-A.Wright).
Q4 · 0:08CLE +17% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle.
Q4 · 10:00JAX +14% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 85-B.Strange to CLE 31 for 30 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q2 · 6:28JAX +12% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end pushed ob at CLE 2 for 33 yards (12-R.McLeod).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:32CLE Touchdown
(2:32) (Shotgun) 53-N.Harris and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — JAX 0
Q2 · 9:57CLE Field goal
(9:57) 7-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 10 — JAX 0
Q2 · 4:47JAX Field goal
(4:47) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: CLE 10 — JAX 3
Q2 · 0:31CLE Field goal
(:31) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 13 — JAX 3
Q3 · 10:25CLE Field goal
(10:25) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 16 — JAX 3
Q3 · 1:14JAX Touchdown
(1:14) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 16 — JAX 10
Q4 · 7:34JAX Field goal
(7:34) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: CLE 16 — JAX 13
Q4 · 1:48CLE Safety
(1:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (91-A.Wright).
Score after this play: CLE 18 — JAX 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Jaguars
Offensive plays	65	54
Total yards	297	323 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	40%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	2/14	3/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Jaguars outgained Browns 323–297 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

14/30, 220 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.1 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

22/34, 186 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.2 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

7 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

13 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

2/4 for 94 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

5/6 for 73 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 20	7	10	3:17	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 11	17	97	9:14	Touchdown +7
3	JAX	JAX 30	5	5	1:02	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 24	12	46	6:35	Field goal +3
5	JAX	JAX 30	12	66	5:08	Field goal +3
6	CLE	CLE 28	9	52	4:17	Field goal +3
7	JAX	JAX 30	2	0	0:27	End of half
8	CLE	CLE 30	5	6	0:44	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 20	4	-7	1:40	Punt
10	CLE	JAX 49	6	12	2:16	Field goal +3
11	JAX	JAX 30	12	44	4:32	Missed field goal
12	CLE	CLE 33	6	8	3:19	Punt
13	JAX	JAX 28	4	72	1:18	Touchdown +7
14	CLE	CLE 30	5	3	1:57	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 10	13	73	6:42	Field goal +3
16	CLE	CLE 30	14	69	5:44	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 2	1	-2	0:04	Safety
18	CLE	JAX 42	5	4	0:17	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 10	7	62	1:27	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 97 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	22/34	186	0	0	2	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerome Ford	7	64	9.1	0	2.7
D'Onta Foreman	14	42	3.0	0	-5.1
Deshaun Watson	5	20	4.0	1	-0.7
Jameis Winston	2	4	2.0	0	3.8
Pierre Strong	1	-5	-5.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	5	6	73	18%	6.3
Elijah Moore	6	8	44	24%	0.3
David Bell	3	3	27	9%	3.2
Amari Cooper	3	8	11	24%	-4.7
Jordan Akins	1	1	10	3%	1.0
Pierre Strong	1	2	10	6%	0.6
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	9	3%	-0.1
Cedric Tillman	1	2	2	6%	0.5
Jerome Ford	1	2	0	6%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	6	1	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	5	1	0.0	0
Rodney McLeod	2	1	0.0	0
Martin Emerson	1	2	0.0	1
Ronnie Hickman	3	0	0.0	1
Greg Newsome	2	0	0.0	0
Alex Wright	1	1	1.0	0
Cameron Mitchell	2	0	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	2	0	1.0	2
Dalvin Tomlinson	2	0	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	14/30	220	0	0	4	-6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	13	52	4.0	1	-0.6
Trevor Lawrence	2	45	22.5	0	4.0
D'Ernest Johnson	5	26	5.2	0	0.9
Devin Duvernay	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brian Thomas	2	4	94	15%	4.0
Brenton Strange	3	6	65	22%	4.0
Gabe Davis	3	7	43	26%	-2.9
Luke Farrell	2	2	13	7%	1.3
Travis Etienne	3	4	6	15%	-1.4
Parker Washington	0	1	0	4%	-1.0
Christian Kirk	1	3	-1	11%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Montaric Brown	9	0	0.0	0
Devin Lloyd	5	3	0.0	2
Foyesade Oluokun	2	6	1.0	0
Andre Cisco	3	2	0.0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	3	1	1.0	1
Antonio Johnson	4	0	0.0	0
Jeremiah Ledbetter	1	2	0.0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	2	1	0.0	0
Jarrian Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Travon Walker	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -3
Closing total: 41.5
CLE moneyline: +142
JAX moneyline: -170

Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 31 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CLE 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Doug Pederson