2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · Lambeau Field

Indianapolis Colts

Green Bay PackersWinner

IND -3 upsetU 41.5 ✓Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 2:04, GB +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:04IND 3 — GB 13GB ball · 4th & 15GB 71%

(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:04GB +10% win prob(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
Q4 · 15:00IND +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon left end to GB 32 for -4 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q2 · 12:13IND +9% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 1 for 3 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-97-L.Latu at IND -3. Touchback.
Q1 · 2:36IND +9% win prob(2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 14-A.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 13. 29-X.McKinney to GB 31 for 18 yards (14-A.Pierce).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:34GB Field goal
(10:34) 44-B.Narveson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: IND 0 — GB 3
Q1 · 3:23GB Touchdown
(3:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 13-D.Wicks for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 0 — GB 10
Q3 · 8:29GB Field goal
(8:29) 44-B.Narveson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: IND 0 — GB 13
Q3 · 4:36IND Field goal
(4:36) 7-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 3 — GB 13
Q4 · 10:54GB Field goal
(10:54) 44-B.Narveson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: IND 3 — GB 16
Q4 · 1:53IND Touchdown
(1:53) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 10 — GB 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Packers
Offensive plays	52	67
Total yards	338	383 (edge)
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	-0.10	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	69%	25%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	2/9	10/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

17/34, 204 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-8.0 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Malik WillisQB

12/14, 122 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.0 expected points added · +20.8% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

32 att, 151 yds, 0 TD

-8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

12 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

3/3 for 62 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

5/7 for 56 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 30	9	57	4:30	Field goal +3
2	IND	IND 30	5	3	0:51	Punt
3	GB	GB 18	12	92	6:21	Touchdown +7
4	IND	IND 30	4	30	0:52	Interception
5	GB	GB 31	10	68	5:20	Fumble
6	IND	IND 20	4	14	2:48	Punt
7	GB	GB 16	9	34	5:12	Punt
8	IND	IND 8	7	33	2:24	Punt
9	GB	GB 20	3	11	1:42	End of half
10	IND	IND 30	7	16	2:40	Turnover on downs
11	GB	IND 46	7	23	3:55	Field goal +3
12	IND	IND 30	8	54	3:53	Field goal +3
13	GB	GB 30	5	0	2:36	Punt
14	IND	IND 16	6	52	2:44	Missed field goal
15	GB	GB 40	7	44	3:22	Field goal +3
16	IND	IND 30	4	30	0:31	Interception
17	GB	GB 25	11	49	6:09	Missed field goal
18	IND	IND 35	13	70	2:23	Touchdown +7
19	GB	IND 43	5	5	1:04	Punt
20	IND	IND 5	6	36	0:43	Interception

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Anthony Richardson	17/34	204	1	3	1	-8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	12	103	8.6	3.5
Anthony Richardson	4	37	9.3	2.4
Trey Sermon	2	0	0.0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alec Pierce	5	7	56	1	23%	-0.2
Jonathan Taylor	2	4	32	0	13%	-1.5
Adonai Mitchell	1	4	30	0	13%	-0.1
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	22	0	3%	1.6
Michael Pittman	3	7	21	0	23%	-4.8
Ashton Dulin	1	2	13	0	6%	0.4
Andrew Ogletree	1	2	12	0	6%	-0.2
Kylen Granson	1	2	9	0	6%	-0.2
Trey Sermon	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.4
Tyler Goodson	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Nick Cross	8	5
E.J. Speed	8	4
Rodney Thomas	5	2
Zaire Franklin	2	5
Jaylon Jones	2	4
Raekwon Davis	2	1
Grover Stewart	1	2
Kwity Paye	3	0
Jaylon Carlies	1	2
Dayo Odeyingbo	2	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Malik Willis	12/14	122	1	0	0	9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	32	151	4.7	-8.3
Malik Willis	6	41	6.8	-0.0
Jayden Reed	2	37	18.5	2.5
MarShawn Lloyd	6	15	2.5	-1.8
Emanuel Wilson	5	9	1.8	-0.7
Bo Melton	2	8	4.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Romeo Doubs	3	3	62	0	23%	6.6
Dontayvion Wicks	3	4	26	1	31%	3.5
Tucker Kraft	2	2	16	0	15%	1.6
Jayden Reed	2	2	9	0	15%	-1.9
Luke Musgrave	1	1	6	0	8%	0.3
MarShawn Lloyd	1	1	3	0	8%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Javon Bullard	3	2	0.0	0	1
Xavier McKinney	3	1	0.0	1	1
Isaiah McDuffie	3	1	0.0	0	1
Quay Walker	3	0	0.0	0	0
Keisean Nixon	3	0	0.0	0	0
Devonte Wyatt	2	0	1.0	0	0
Carrington Valentine	0	2	0.0	0	1
Evan Williams	2	0	0.0	1	1
Preston Smith	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3
Closing total: 41.5
IND moneyline: -142
GB moneyline: +120

Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: IND 7 days · GB 9 days
Coaches: Shane Steichen vs Matt LaFleur