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Indianapolis Colts 10 at Green Bay Packers 16. Final.
Colts -3 upsetU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 2
Green Bay Packers 16, Colts 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 2:04, 4th and 15 — 10.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:04 · 4th and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Packers
(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
10.5
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 2:04, Packers +10.5% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh JacobsColtsQ2 12:13(12:13) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 1 for 3 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-97-L.Latu at IND -3. Touchback.
9.4pts
Trey SermonPackersQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon left end to GB 32 for -4 yards (29-X.McKinney).
10.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 10 of 17 on third down, against Colts at 2 of 9 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Colts152 of 161 plays carry both curves
(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
Swing +10.5 for PackersExpected points +1.27 for PackersThe model had Packers 10 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:04GB +10% win prob(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
4th · 15:00IND +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon left end to GB 32 for -4 yards (29-X.McKinney).
2nd · 12:13IND +9% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 1 for 3 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-97-L.Latu at IND -3. Touchback.
1st · 2:36IND +9% win prob(2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 14-A.Pierce INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 13. 29-X.McKinney to GB 31 for 18 yards (14-A.Pierce).
4th · 14:16IND +8% win prob(14:16) 7-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
2nd · 4:15GB +8% win prob(4:15) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brayden Narveson's 46-yard field goal with 10:34 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:34Brayden Narveson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+30–3
1st3:23Dontayvion Wicks·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Malik Willisfrom Malik Willis+70–10
3rd8:29Brayden Narveson·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+30–13
3rd4:36Matt Gay·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–13
4th10:54Brayden Narveson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–16
4th1:53Alec Pierce·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Anthony Richardsonfrom Anthony Richardson+710–16
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryPackers
Colts2–6Packers
338Total yards383
6.5Yards per play5.7
42%Success rate36%
22%Third-down rate59%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays10
18First downs19
1Sacks taken0
3Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.00Packers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Colts: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.55Packers: +0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.19Packers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 52 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Packers’s 67 at 25%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Packers 3.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, −31.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 15.4 points clear of the next team along.
2.8 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 1.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's blitz rate sent, 8.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 1.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 12.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 17.8 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 1.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 1.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
IND's play-action rate turned over: 45.8% in week 1 against 19.4% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.4 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Packers8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -31.1 pts, 22.9 points below their season mean of -8.2 pts and 2.8 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Jacobs up−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:13) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 1 for 3 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-97-L.Latu at IND -3. Touchback.
Q2 12:13 · Packers · 1st & goal at IND 4 · gained 3 · -6.59 EP · −10.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 82 yards from the GB 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
721
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0526%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0969%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1310%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1650%
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Colts0Packers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Colts 28
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 33
Colts0Packers9
Colts0Packers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Colts 14
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Packers 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Colts 41
2nd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Colts 4
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 35
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 16 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 29
3rd quarter33 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 46
Colts0Packers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 46 to the Colts 23
Colts3Packers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Packers 16
Punt6 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Packers 29
4th quarter56 plays
No good2 plays
Colts3Packers16
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Colts 15
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Packers 40
No good12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Colts 26
Colts9Packers16
Colts10Packers16
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Packers 4
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Colts 38
Intercepted6 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Colts 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3
Closing total
41.5
Colts moneyline
-142
Packers moneyline
+120
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 84°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the south; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Colts 7 days · Packers 9 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Matt LaFleur
1st · 13:11
GB +7% win prob
(13:11) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle pushed ob at IND 31 for 34 yards (25-R.Thomas).
2nd · 12:54GB +6% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end to IND 4 for 19 yards (20-N.Cross). IND-20-N.Cross was injured during the play.
