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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q3 2:04, 4th and 15 — 10.5 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 2:04, Packers +10.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:04 · 4th and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Packers
(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 10 of 17 on third down, against Colts at 2 of 9 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brayden Narveson's 46-yard field goal with 10:34 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Brayden Narveson46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+30–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 52 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Packers’s 67 at 25%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Packers 3.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's pass rate over expected, −31.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 15.4 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −2.8σ from their own normal
GB's blitz rate sent, 8.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −2.4σ from their own normal
GB's early-down pass rate, 12.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 17.8 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
IND's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
IND's blitz rate sent, 47.1%, sat 27.0 points above their season number of 20.0% — they sent pressure by 2.6 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · +2.6σ from their own normal
IND's play-action rate turned over: 45.8% in week 1 against 19.4% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-5.2 ptsright on their number · +3.5 vs their -8.7 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 52 snaps
Packers-31.1 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −22.9 vs their -8.2 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−2.77× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 85%
Tendencies room →Colts65.9%leaned — passed early · +15.0 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±13.0 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 41 early downs
Packers12.0%off script — ran early · −32.2 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−2.28× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 56%
Tendencies room →Colts19.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.5 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Packers17.6%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Colts33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±27.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 51%
Tendencies room →Colts47.1%off script — sent pressure · +27.0 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+2.61× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Packers8.3%off script — sat back · −14.8 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−2.36× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 32%
Tendencies room →Colts0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.4 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Packers8.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
GB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -31.1 pts, 22.9 points below their season mean of -8.2 pts and 2.8 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
17/34, 204 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-8.0 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected
Passing · GB
12/14, 122 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.0 expected points added · +20.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dontayvion Wicks banked 5.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec PierceWR · Featured Receiver | 16.6 | +2.9 | 95% | 89% | 23% | 30% | 5/7, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.5 | +4.0 | 52% | 32% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 103 yd · 2/4, 32 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.1 | −4.2 | 67% | 53% | 0% | — | 32 car, 151 yd |
| Malik WillisQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | +2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/14, 122 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 41 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.6 | +5.1 | 51% | 53% | 31% | 43% | 3/4, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Anthony RichardsonQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/34, 204 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 4 car, 37 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.2 | +3.7 | 79% | 94% | 23% | 67% | 3/3, 62 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +2.3 | 56% | 82% | 15% | 0% | 2 car, 37 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −6.6 | 86% | 86% | 23% | 25% | 3/7, 21 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −2.1 | 59% | 65% | 13% | 25% | 1/4, 30 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.8 | 80% | 65% | 15% | 1% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.3 | 32% | 24% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| MarShawn LloydRB | 2.8 | −1.6 | 14% | 18% | 8% | 0% | 6 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.2 | 43% | 41% | 6% | 7% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −0.9 | 25% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.1 | 59% | 62% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 1.7 | −1.2 | 32% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 44% | 47% | 8% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 1.2 | −0.1 | 16% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 0.9 | −1.6 | 19% | 29% | 0% | — | 5 car, 9 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −0.7 | 23% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 8 yd |
| Anthony GouldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:13) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 1 for 3 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-97-L.Latu at IND -3. Touchback.
Q2 12:13 · Packers · 1st & goal at IND 4 · gained 3 · -6.59 EP · −10.1% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 82 yards from the GB 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts0
Packers3Colts0Packers9Colts0Packers10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Colts0Packers13Colts3Packers13Colts3Packers16Colts9Packers16Colts10Packers16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 17/34 | 204 | 1 | 3 | 1 | −8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 103 | 8.6 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Anthony Richardson | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Trey Sermon |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 23% | −0.2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cross | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 12/14 | 122 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_IND_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.9 |
| −1.5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | −0.1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 23% | −4.8 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Carlies | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayo Odeyingbo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 32 | 151 | 4.7 | 0 | −8.3 |
| Malik Willis | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 | +2.5 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 | 23% | +6.6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 31% | +3.5 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 15% | +1.6 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 15% | −1.9 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bullard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Evan Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
