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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles26
BY 23final margin
PanthersCarolina3
Los Angeles Chargers 26 at Carolina Panthers 3. Final.
Chargers -5 ✓U 39 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 2
Los Angeles Chargers 26, Panthers 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:26, 3rd and 10, on Quentin Johnston — 7.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:26 · 3rd and 10
Quentin Johnston
Chargers
(9:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15 mph wind
Chargers closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.
Los Angeles Chargers 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:26, Chargers +7.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jaycee HornPanthersQ1 7:49(7:49) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at LAC 41. 8-J.Horn to LAC 41 for no gain (44-S.Matlock). Penalty on LAC-75-B.Bozeman, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
4.5pts
Elijah MoldenChargersQ2 3:30(3:30) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 5-Dio.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 45. 22-E.Molden to LAC 48 for 3 yards (5-Dio.Johnson).
4.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 12 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.49 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.75 expected points per dropback.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Chargers145 of 155 plays carry both curves
(9:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.4 for PanthersExpected points −4.13 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 24 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:26CAR +7% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:30LAC +5% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 5-Dio.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 45. 22-E.Molden to LAC 48 for 3 yards (5-Dio.Johnson).
1st · 7:49LAC +5% win prob(7:49) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at LAC 41. 8-J.Horn to LAC 41 for no gain (44-S.Matlock). Penalty on LAC-75-B.Bozeman, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
1st · 6:22LAC +4% win prob(6:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at LAC 43 for -7 yards (6-D.Perryman).
1st · 11:24CAR +3% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to CAR 29 for 11 yards (13-T.Hill).
2nd · 4:21CAR +3% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Quentin Johnston's 29-yard touchdown catch with 9:26 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:26Quentin Johnston·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+66–0
3rd12:22Eddy Pineiro·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+320–3
3rd9:07Cameron Dicker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+323–3
4th11:06Cameron Dicker·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+326–3
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryPanthers
Chargers8–1Panthers
353Total yards159
5.7Yards per play3.5
53%Success rate24%
60%Third-down rate8%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays2
18First downs7
1Sacks taken2
3Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Chargers: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.49Panthers: −0.49 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Chargers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.75Panthers: −0.75 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.04Panthers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 35% dropback rate against Panthers’s 46 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Panthers 1.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 7.1% in week 1 against 40.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
CAR's blitz rate sent turned over: 42.3% in week 1 against 27.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Panthers9.1%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.8%, 25.5 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 2.2 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:49) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at LAC 41. 8-J.Horn to LAC 41 for no gain (44-S.Matlock). Penalty on LAC-75-B.Bozeman, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q1 7:49 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LAC 25 · gained nothing · -4.44 EP · −13.6% win probability
143 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 67 yards from the LAC 33 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
40%
Yards
508
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.5064%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2244%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13-0.088%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.539%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.41100%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chargers6Panthers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Panthers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 38
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chargers 36
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 15
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 42
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 28
Chargers12Panthers0
Chargers13Panthers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Panthers 5
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 43
Chargers19Panthers0
Chargers20Panthers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Panthers 43
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Chargers20Panthers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Chargers 20
Chargers23Panthers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Panthers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 33
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Panthers 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 25
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Chargers26Panthers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Panthers 23
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Chargers 35
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 47
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 26
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
