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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q1 9:26, 3rd and 10, on Quentin Johnston — 7.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:26, Chargers +7.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:26 · 3rd and 10
Quentin Johnston
Chargers
(9:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 12 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.49 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.75 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(9:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Quentin Johnston's 29-yard touchdown catch with 9:26 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Quentin Johnston29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+66–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryPanthers
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 35% dropback rate against Panthers’s 46 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Panthers 1.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 29.8%, sat 25.5 points below their season number of 55.2% — they ran early by 2.2 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 7.1% in week 1 against 40.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
CAR's blitz rate sent turned over: 42.3% in week 1 against 27.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-14.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.7 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.88× that swing) · 62 snaps
Panthers-12.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.2 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 46 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 85%
Tendencies room →Chargers29.8%off script — ran early · −25.5 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−2.19× that swing) · 47 early downs
Panthers48.4%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 31 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Chargers40.9%inside their normal wobble · +10.2 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Panthers17.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Chargers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −17.9 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±16.0 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers33.3%right on their number · −8.6 vs their 41.9%, and they swing ±31.3 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 51%
Tendencies room →Chargers20.7%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Panthers27.3%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Chargers6.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Panthers9.1%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
LAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.8%, 25.5 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 2.2 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
14/20, 130 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
1.4 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
18/26, 84 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-22.1 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
5/6 for 51 yds, 2 TD
32% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
J.K. Dobbins banked 10.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +10.0 | 70% | 86% | 32% | 45% | 5/6, 51 yd, 2 TD |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Committee Back | 20.1 | +10.1 | 46% | 64% | 5% | 0% | 17 car, 131 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 11.6 | +0.4 | 58% | 59% | 19% | 0% | 10 car, 64 yd · 4/5, 12 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 11.0 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 130 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 18 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −3.3 | 48% | 32% | 0% | — | 18 car, 59 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +1.4 | 51% | 36% | 16% | 8% | 3/3, 29 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 5.5 | −2.1 | 42% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 7 car, 20 yd · 3/3, 5 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.1 | 46% | 45% | 15% | 19% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Featured Receiver | 4.6 | −2.0 | 49% | 68% | 21% | 38% | 2/4, 26 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 4.5 | −3.7 | 94% | 90% | 23% | 51% | 3/6, 15 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.2 | 94% | 93% | 12% | 23% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.1 | 43% | 64% | 11% | 5% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.4 | 50% | 55% | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 8 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 2.0 | −4.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/26, 84 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.3 | 55% | 77% | 11% | 4% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −1.4 | 63% | 55% | 8% | 9% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 1.1 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | — | 42% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.9 | 22% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 32% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:49) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at LAC 41. 8-J.Horn to LAC 41 for no gain (44-S.Matlock). Penalty on LAC-75-B.Bozeman, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q1 7:49 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LAC 25 · gained nothing · -4.44 EP · −13.6% win probability
143 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 155 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 143 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 67 yards from the LAC 33 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Chargers6
Panthers0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Chargers12Panthers0Chargers13Panthers0Chargers19Panthers0Chargers20Panthers0Chargers20Panthers3Chargers23Panthers3Chargers26Panthers3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 14/20 | 130 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 131 | 7.7 | 1 | +8.5 |
| Gus Edwards | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Justin Herbert |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 32% | +6.7 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Daiyan Henley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/26 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −22.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_LAC_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 39; the game landed 29 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 6 |
| 18 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.8 |
| Hassan Haskins | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.6 |
| 16% |
| +2.6 |
| Ladd McConkey | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 21% | −1.7 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 11% | +1.2 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11% | −0.6 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Derwin James | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deane Leonard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khalil Mack | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bud Dupree | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 15% | −1.5 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 12% | −2.5 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 23% | −3.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 19% | −3.9 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12% | −2.3 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Michael Jackson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
