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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Rams146 of 152 plays carry both curves
(8:57) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.9 for CardinalsExpected points +4.61 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 13 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:57ARI +9% win prob(8:57) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:37LA +8% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to ARI 40 for 1 yard (3-B.Baker).
1st · 9:45LA +8% win prob(9:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 28 for -8 yards (45-D.Gardeck).
1st · 13:40LA +6% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson to ARI 38 for 3 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). Arizona challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 15-D.Robinson.
2nd · 12:52ARI +5% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson pushed ob at ARI 27 for 42 yards (3-B.Baker) [91-L.Collier].
1st · 14:54ARI +5% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right tackle to ARI 40 for 9 yards (24-S.Thomas).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marvin Harrison's 23-yard touchdown catch with 11:09 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Cardinals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Rams: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.35Cardinals: +0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Rams: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.81Cardinals: +0.81 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Rams: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.01Cardinals: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 52 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 62 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Cardinals 6.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's sack or hit rate, 28.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 5.0 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 1.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
LA's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.7 pts in week 1 against −11.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Cardinals28.1%
off script — got home · +16.1 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+2.46× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.1%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 12.0% and 2.5 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
50Beaux LimmerC · Every snap100%52 snaps
71Warren McClendon Jr.T · Every snap100%52 snaps
72Jonah JacksonC · Every snap100%52 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%52 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Every snap100%52 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
15Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time92%48 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Full-time87%45 snaps
86Colby ParkinsonTE · Full-time81%42 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation79%41 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Heavy rotation52%27 snaps
88Jordan WhittingtonWR · Heavy rotation50%26 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to ARI 40 for 1 yard (3-B.Baker).
Q1 13:37 · Rams · 4th & 2 at ARI 41 · gained 1 · -2.79 EP · −7.1% win probability
144 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 99 yards from the ARI 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
55%
Yards
734
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2662%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.0421%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5950%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.5843%
Cardinals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 40
Rams0Cardinals6
Rams0Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Rams 23
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 36
Rams0Cardinals13
Rams0Cardinals14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 37
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Rams 27
2nd quarter45 plays
Rams0Cardinals20
Rams0Cardinals21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Rams 18
Rams3Cardinals21
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Cardinals 4
Rams3Cardinals24
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Rams 30
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 35
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 31
The period ended14 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Cardinals 3
3rd quarter39 plays
Rams3Cardinals30
Rams3Cardinals31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Rams 5
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 39
Rams3Cardinals34
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Rams 39
Rams9Cardinals34
Rams10Cardinals34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Cardinals 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 35
4th quarter30 plays
Rams10Cardinals40
Rams10Cardinals41
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Rams 7
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Rams 30 to midfield
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Rams 13
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Cardinals 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
