For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q4 4:03, 3rd and 17, on Gardner Minshew — 14.3 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:03 · 3rd and 17
Gardner Minshew
Raiders
(4:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on BAL-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at BAL 17 - No Play.
Las Vegas Raiders 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:03, Raiders +14.3% win probability on one snap.
14.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.46 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Raiders at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(4:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on BAL-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 16 yards, enforced at BAL 17 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 38-yard field goal with 0:31 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Daniel Carlson38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+326–2311 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 59 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Ravens’s 61 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Ravens 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's sack or hit rate turned over: 17.9% in week 1 against 5.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders10.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.0 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 59 snaps
Ravens-10.0 ptsright on their number · −2.3 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 92%
Tendencies room →Raiders71.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.9 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 46 early downs
Ravens51.0%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 55%
Tendencies room →Raiders23.3%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Ravens16.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Raiders33.3%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 31.1%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 67%
Tendencies room →Raiders25.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Ravens32.6%inside their normal wobble · +9.8 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Raiders5.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Ravens20.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
LV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.1 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of -0.9 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
30/38, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.4 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
21/34, 247 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.0 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Brock Bowers banked 6.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.0 | +5.3 | 94% | 98% | 33% | 59% | 9/12, 110 yd, 1 TD |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +2.9 | 89% | 95% | 35% | 35% | 7/11, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock BowersTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.8 | +6.2 | 68% | 65% | 25% | 24% | 9/9, 98 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.6 | +4.1 | 46% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 18 car, 84 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 16.4 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/34, 247 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 45 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/38, 276 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +1.5 | 63% | 79% | 16% | 23% | 4/5, 51 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +0.8 | 82% | 89% | 13% | 13% | 3/4, 40 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −1.6 | 94% | 93% | 14% | 14% | 4/5, 29 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB · Committee Back | 6.8 | −1.4 | 63% | 65% | 11% | 0% | 9 car, 24 yd · 3/4, 14 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 6.1 | +0.4 | 22% | 21% | 0% | — | 4 car, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Justice HillRB | 5.2 | 0.0 | 54% | 68% | 6% | 0% | 4 car, 22 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +0.6 | 49% | 47% | 10% | 9% | 2/3, 26 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.8 | 60% | 67% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −3.0 | 55% | 50% | 10% | 18% | 1/3, 13 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 2.2 | −1.2 | 13% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 1 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | 62% | 58% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 22% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| D.J. TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −0.4 | 13% | 12% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | −1.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| John KellyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:31) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 0:31 · Raiders · 4th & 3 at BAL 20 · gained nothing · +0.39 EP · +17.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 76 yards from the BAL 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Ravens3Raiders3Ravens3Raiders3Ravens6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Raiders6Ravens6Raiders6Ravens9Raiders6Ravens15Raiders6Ravens16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Raiders12Ravens16Raiders13Ravens16Raiders13Ravens22Raiders13Ravens23Raiders16Ravens23Raiders22Ravens23Raiders23Ravens23Raiders26Ravens23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 30/38 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 | −2.3 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 9 | 12 | 110 | 1 | 33% | +3.4 |
| Brock Bowers | 9 | 9 | 98 | 0 | 25% | +8.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Maxx Crosby | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/34 | 247 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_LV_BAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -9 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 49 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 14% | +1.9 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 11% | −0.8 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Masterson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 84 |
| 4.7 |
| 1 |
| +0.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 35% | +4.1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 16% | +1.9 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 13% | −2.7 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 10% | +2.5 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trenton Simpson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travis Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Ross | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
