For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Saints159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
Swing −16.2 for CowboysExpected points −5.89 for CowboysThe model had Saints 20 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:14DAL +16% win prob(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
2nd · 0:05DAL +12% win prob(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
2nd · 9:41DAL +11% win prob(9:41) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:20NO +11% win prob(1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right intended for 83-J.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 33. 29-P.Adebo to DAL 20 for 47 yards (15-E.Elliott; 4-D.Prescott).
1st · 11:34DAL +8% win prob(11:34) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at DAL 5 for 39 yards (7-T.Diggs).
2nd · 0:52DAL +7% win prob(:52) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to DAL 1 for 19 yards (21-C.Carson).
1st · 7:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 10:54 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:54Alvin Kamara·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st4:19Brandon Aubrey·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+37–3
2nd0:05Brandon Aubrey·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+335–16
3rd9:08Brandon Aubrey·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+335–19
3rd1:14Alvin Kamara·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by C.Golston+641–19
4th5:15Blake Grupe·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.Wood+344–19
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryCowboys
Saints9–0Cowboys
435Total yards353
8.2Yards per play5.4
58%Success rate38%
71%Third-down rate46%
4Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays2
23First downs18
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.83 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.46Saints: +0.46 expected points added per play
−0.17Cowboys: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.83Saints: +0.83 expected points added per play
−0.23Cowboys: −0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Saints: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.05Cowboys: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 32% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 65 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Cowboys 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's play-action rate, 58.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 17.9 points clear of the next team along.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.7 points.
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.0% in week 1 against 13.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.4% in week 1 against 11.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 34.3% in week 1 against 15.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Cowboys11.8%
right on their number · −4.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
NoteNO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 58.8%, 35.8 points above their season mean of 23.0% and 2.4 times their own 14.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
Q1 4:14 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 30 · gained 70 · +5.89 EP · +16.1% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 80 yards from the NO 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
50%
Yards
785
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3265%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.5438%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR15-0.2893%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.1131%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0050%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6+0.3933%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Saints6Cowboys0
Saints7Cowboys0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Cowboys 5
Saints7Cowboys3
Field goal16 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Saints 34
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Saints13Cowboys3
Saints14Cowboys3
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Saints 37
2nd quarter58 plays
Saints14Cowboys6
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 12
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Saints20Cowboys6
Saints21Cowboys6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Saints21Cowboys12
Saints21Cowboys13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cowboys 35
Saints27Cowboys13
Saints28Cowboys13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Cowboys 12
Intercepted9 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 49
Saints34Cowboys13
Saints35Cowboys13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 1
Saints35Cowboys16
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Saints 30
3rd quarter34 plays
Saints35Cowboys19
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Saints 9
Saints41Cowboys19
Touchdown17 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Cowboys 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 42
4th quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Saints 16
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 27
Intercepted1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 41
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 16
Saints44Cowboys19
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 6
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
