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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q1 4:14, 1st and 10, on Rashid Shaheed — 16.2 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 44–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:14, Saints +16.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:14 · 1st and 10
Rashid Shaheed
Saints
(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.83 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.46 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 2 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Alvin Kamara's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 10:54 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryCowboys
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.83 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 32% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 65 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Saints 7, Cowboys 4.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's play-action rate, 58.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 17.9 points clear of the next team along.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.7 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 41.0% in week 1 against 13.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.4% in week 1 against 11.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 34.3% in week 1 against 15.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-13.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.0 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 53 snaps
Cowboys-5.1 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 91%
Tendencies room →Saints30.4%leaned — ran early · −25.6 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 46 early downs
Cowboys67.3%inside their normal wobble · +9.7 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 64%
Tendencies room →Saints58.8%off script — faked the run · +35.8 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±14.7 week to week (+2.44× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Cowboys15.6%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.2%.
Cowboys66.7%inside their normal wobble · +25.2 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±33.6 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 52%
Tendencies room →Saints13.3%leaned — sat back · −10.8 vs their 24.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Cowboys35.3%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Saints6.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Cowboys11.8%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
NO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 58.8%, 35.8 points above their season mean of 23.0% and 2.4 times their own 14.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
27/39, 293 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.4 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Passing · NO
11/16, 243 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
14.0 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Alvin Kamara banked 24.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 44.0 | +24.9 | 63% | 59% | 20% | 0% | 20 car, 115 yd, 3 TD · 2/3, 65 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 21.8 | +9.1 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 11/16, 243 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.9 | +10.7 | 66% | 94% | 27% | 44% | 3 car, 13 yd · 4/4, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 19.0 | +4.8 | 83% | 78% | 17% | 28% | 4/7, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Featured Receiver | 14.2 | −1.3 | 86% | 87% | 22% | 34% | 6/9, 82 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −3.2 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 293 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 12 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.8 | −2.0 | 71% | 88% | 40% | 57% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/6, 81 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +2.0 | 40% | 41% | 15% | 4% | 6/6, 43 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB · Receiving Back | 9.9 | −1.5 | 43% | 41% | 12% | 8% | 7 car, 30 yd · 4/5, 29 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 5.2 | −2.5 | 40% | 41% | 7% | 0% | 6 car, 16 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 3.9 | −0.3 | 25% | 35% | 0% | — | 8 car, 39 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.5 | 81% | 78% | 5% | 5% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/2, 19 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 2.9 | −0.5 | 47% | — | 7% | 0% | 3 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Deuce VaughnRB | 2.7 | −0.8 | 14% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 4 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −4.0 | 27% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/4, 4 yd |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.9 | 40% | 43% | 7% | 21% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | 0.2 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 31% | 28% | 2% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 80% | 88% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | −1.7 | 44% | 35% | 7% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jake HaenerQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
Q1 4:14 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 30 · gained 70 · +5.89 EP · +16.1% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 80 yards from the NO 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints6
Cowboys0Saints7Cowboys0Saints7Cowboys3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Saints13Cowboys3Saints14Cowboys3Saints14Cowboys6How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Saints20Cowboys6Saints21Cowboys6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints21Cowboys12Saints21Cowboys13Saints27Cowboys13Saints28Cowboys13Saints34Cowboys13Saints35Cowboys13Saints35Cowboys16Saints35Cowboys19Saints41Cowboys19Saints44Cowboys19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 11/16 | 243 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +14.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 115 | 5.8 | 3 | +8.8 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Taysom Hill |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 4 | 96 | 1 | 27% | +8.3 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 40% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alontae Taylor | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/39 | 293 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −8.4 |
| Cooper Rush | 1/3 | 6 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_NO_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 63 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 18 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.4 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Jake Haener | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +3.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 3 | 65 | 1 | 20% | +5.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7% | −0.7 |
| Adam Prentice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Chase Young | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 17% | +1.5 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 6 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 22% | +3.2 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 15% | +0.7 |
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 12% | +0.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 5% | +2.8 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +1.4 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −9.2 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | −0.7 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −2.2 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Damone Clark | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Golston | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caelen Carson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarvion Overshown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
