2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · AT&T Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -6.5 upsetO 47 ✓DomeCowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 44–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:14, DAL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:14NO 13 — DAL 3NO ball · 1st & 10DAL 62%

(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:14DAL +16% win prob(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
Q2 · 0:05DAL +12% win prob(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q2 · 9:41DAL +11% win prob(9:41) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:20NO +11% win prob(1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right intended for 83-J.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 33. 29-P.Adebo to DAL 20 for 47 yards (15-E.Elliott; 4-D.Prescott).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:54NO Touchdown
(10:54) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — DAL 0
Q1 · 4:19DAL Field goal
(4:19) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: NO 7 — DAL 3
Q1 · 4:14NO Touchdown
(4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — DAL 3
Q2 · 11:42DAL Field goal
(11:42) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: NO 14 — DAL 6
Q2 · 9:41NO Touchdown
(9:41) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 21 — DAL 6
Q2 · 7:54DAL Touchdown
(7:54) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 21 — DAL 13
Q2 · 2:54NO Touchdown
(2:54) 41-A.Kamara left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 28 — DAL 13
Q2 · 0:41NO Touchdown
(:41) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 35 — DAL 13
Q2 · 0:05DAL Field goal
(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: NO 35 — DAL 16
Q3 · 9:08DAL Field goal
(9:08) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: NO 35 — DAL 19
Q3 · 1:14NO Touchdown
(1:14) 41-A.Kamara left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 41 — DAL 19
Q4 · 5:15NO Field goal
(5:15) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 44 — DAL 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Cowboys
Offensive plays	53	65
Total yards	435 (edge)	353
Yards per play	8.2 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.46 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	58% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	32%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.83 (edge)	-0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	5/7 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

27/39, 293 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.4 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

11/16, 243 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

14.0 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

20 att, 115 yds, 3 TD

8.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Jamaal WilliamsRB

8 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

4/4 for 96 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

4/7 for 90 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 20	9	80	4:10	Touchdown +7
2	DAL	DAL 21	14	50	6:36	Field goal +3
3	NO	NO 30	3	70	0:09	Touchdown +7
4	DAL	DAL 39	15	41	7:26	Field goal +3
5	NO	NO 30	6	70	2:09	Touchdown +7
6	DAL	DAL 22	6	78	1:47	Touchdown +7
7	NO	NO 30	13	70	4:55	Touchdown +7
8	DAL	DAL 32	6	17	1:46	Interception
9	NO	DAL 20	4	20	0:23	Touchdown +7
10	DAL	DAL 30	8	40	0:39	Field goal +3
11	DAL	DAL 27	11	66	5:55	Field goal +3
12	NO	NO 30	15	69	7:56	Touchdown +6
13	DAL	DAL 30	10	54	2:28	Turnover on downs
14	NO	NO 17	3	10	1:37	Interception
15	DAL	NO 47	1	0	0:05	Interception
16	NO	NO 30	6	9	2:25	Punt
17	DAL	DAL 12	4	1	1:45	Turnover on downs
18	NO	DAL 13	4	15	2:38	Field goal +3
19	DAL	DAL 30	5	6	1:02	Punt
20	NO	NO 11	6	22	4:09	End of game

12 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	11/16	243	2	1	1	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	20	115	5.8	3	8.8
Jamaal Williams	8	39	4.9	0	-1.8
Taysom Hill	3	18	6.0	0	1.4
Rashid Shaheed	3	13	4.3	0	0.4
Chris Olave	1	7	7.0	0	0.9
Derek Carr	1	1	1.0	1	0.7
Jake Haener	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	4	4	96	1	27%	8.3
Chris Olave	4	6	81	0	40%	3.1
Alvin Kamara	2	3	65	1	20%	5.4
Taysom Hill	1	1	1	0	7%	-0.7
Adam Prentice	0	1	0	0	7%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alontae Taylor	7	2	0.0	0	0
Pete Werner	5	3	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	3	5	0.0	0	1
Carl Granderson	1	4	1.5	0	0
Paulson Adebo	4	1	0.0	1	2
Chase Young	2	2	0.5	0	0
Kool-Aid McKinstry	3	1	0.0	0	1
Will Harris	2	1	0.0	0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	3	0	0.0	1	2
Nathan Shepherd	1	2	0.0	0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	27/39	293	1	2	3	-8.4
Cooper Rush	1/3	6	0	0	0	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rico Dowdle	7	30	4.3	0.8
Ezekiel Elliott	6	16	2.7	-1.2
Dak Prescott	2	12	6.0	2.6
Deuce Vaughn	4	11	2.8	-1.3
Kavontae Turpin	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Brandin Cooks	1	-3	-3.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	4	7	90	1	17%	1.5
Jalen Tolbert	6	9	82	0	22%	3.2
Luke Schoonmaker	6	6	43	0	15%	0.7
Rico Dowdle	4	5	29	0	12%	0.2
Brandin Cooks	2	2	19	0	5%	2.8
Ezekiel Elliott	2	3	16	0	7%	1.4
Jalen Brooks	1	3	10	0	7%	-9.2
Deuce Vaughn	1	1	6	0	2%	-0.7
Kavontae Turpin	2	4	4	0	10%	-2.2
Brevyn Spann-Ford	0	1	0	0	2%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	2	5	0.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	2	4	0.0	1	1
Damone Clark	3	2	0.0	0	0
Trevon Diggs	4	1	0.0	0	0
Chauncey Golston	2	2	1.0	0	0
Caelen Carson	4	0	0.0	0	0
DeMarvion Overshown	3	0	0.0	0	0
Micah Parsons	2	1	0.0	0	0
Malik Hooker	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -6.5
Closing total: 47
NO moneyline: +235
DAL moneyline: -290

Cowboys closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 63 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: NO 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Mike McCarthy