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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:23 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Giants157 of 170 plays carry both curves
(2:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers.
Swing +24.5 for CommandersExpected points +3.29 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 2 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:09NYG +24% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers.
4th · 4:37WAS +16% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at WAS 28 for 25 yards (20-Q.Martin) [92-D.Armstrong].
2nd · 0:12WAS +14% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:59WAS +13% win prob(1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown to NYG 43 for 34 yards (28-C.Flott).
4th · 11:35WAS +12% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 17-W.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:27WAS +12% win prob(14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 27 for 4 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene).
3rd · 6:32
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Seibert's 30-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:27Austin Seibert·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+30–3
1st1:10Devin Singletary·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+66–3
2nd10:41Austin Seibert·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+36–6
2nd1:53Austin Seibert·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+36–9
2nd0:12Malik Nabers·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones · two-point no good+612–9
3rd8:01Austin Seibert·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+312–12
3rd2:50Austin Seibert·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+312–15
4th11:35Wan'Dale Robinson·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones · two-point no good+618–15
4th7:16Austin Seibert·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+318–18
4th0:04Austin Seibert·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.OttLead never changed again+318–21
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCommanders
Giants2–6Commanders
304Total yards427
5.7Yards per play6.4
43%Success rate45%
50%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays12
18First downs20
1Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Giants: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.16Commanders: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Giants: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.20Commanders: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Giants: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.10Commanders: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 53 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Commanders’s 67 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Commanders 7.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Commanders12.5%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteWAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 15.8%, 10.3 points below their season mean of 26.1% and 1.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%56 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%56 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%56 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%56 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%56 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
1Malik NabersWR · Full-time89%50 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time88%49 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation79%44 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation79%44 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation63%35 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational46%26 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Situational21%12 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Situational21%12 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Situational7%4 snaps
89Jakob JohnsonFB · Situational5%3 snaps
88Bryce Ford-WheatonWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Nick McCloudCBAnthony Johnson Jr.FSJake KubasGDarius MuasauILBCarlos BashamOLBTommy DeVitoQB
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass−21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers.
Q4 2:09 · Giants · 4th & 4 at WAS 22 · gained nothing · -3.29 EP · −20.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 74 yards from the WAS 18 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
43%
Yards
729
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.1351%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2162%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0956%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1850%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Giants0Commanders3
Field goal21 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Giants 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Giants6Commanders3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 47 to the Commanders 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 32
2nd quarter48 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Giants6Commanders6
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Giants 20
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Commanders 45
Giants6Commanders9
Field goal16 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Giants 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Giants12Commanders9
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Commanders 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Commanders 44
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Giants12Commanders12
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Giants 9
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants12Commanders15
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Giants 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Commanders 34
4th quarter49 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Giants18Commanders15
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 7
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Giants18Commanders18
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Giants 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Commanders 22
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Giants18Commanders21
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Giants 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -1.5
Closing total
42.5
Giants moneyline
+105
Commanders moneyline
-125
Commanders closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 39 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 78°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the east; mainly clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Giants 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Dan Quinn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
WAS +12% win prob
(6:32) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to NYG 21 for 40 yards (27-J.Pinnock).
1st · 2:41WAS +11% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 13 for 28 yards (4-F.Luvu). NYG-1-M.Nabers was injured during the play.
