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New York Jets 24, Titans 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:28, 2nd and 9, on Calvin Ridley — 15.8 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:28 · 2nd and 9
Calvin Ridley
Titans
(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jets closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
New York Jets 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 3:28, Titans +15.8% win probability on one snap.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Braelon AllenJetsQ4 4:36(4:36) 0-B.Allen right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.5pts
Will LevisJetsQ4 0:29(:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at NYJ 14 for -6 yards (99-W.McDonald).
12.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jets won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Jets154 of 166 plays carry both curves
(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.8 for TitansExpected points +3.84 for TitansThe model had Titans 9 points higher than the market did.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:28TEN +16% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:29NYJ +13% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at NYJ 14 for -6 yards (99-W.McDonald).
4th · 4:36TEN +11% win prob(4:36) 0-B.Allen right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:47TEN +11% win prob(5:47) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 18-M.Williams to TEN 26 for 19 yards (13-C.Awuzie).
3rd · 13:46TEN +11% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 18-M.Williams. PENALTY on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 25 - No Play.
4th · 7:11TEN +10% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at TEN 39 for 26 yards (38-L.Sneed).
3rd · 12:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Braelon Allen's 20-yard rushing touchdown with 4:36 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd6:01Greg Zuerlein·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+317–10
3rd3:28Calvin Ridley·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Will Levisfrom Will Levis+717–17
4th4:36Braelon Allen·20-yd TD run20-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+724–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryTitans
Jets4–4Titans
266Total yards300
4.8Yards per play5.0
42%Success rate37%
42%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
15First downs16
2Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Jets: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Jets: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.13Titans: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Jets: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.04Titans: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Titans’s 60 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Titans 5.
NoteTitans outgained Jets 300-266 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Titans9.1%
inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 14.1 points below their season mean of 28.4% and 1.6 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
66Joe TippmannC · Every snap100%57 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%57 snaps
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%57 snaps
8Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
5Garrett WilsonWR · Full-time96%55 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Full-time93%53 snaps
10Allen LazardWR · Full-time82%47 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Heavy rotation72%41 snaps
18Mike WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational37%21 snaps
0Braelon AllenRB · Rotational35%20 snaps
82Xavier GipsonWR · Situational11%6 snaps
84Brenden BatesTE · Situational7%4 snaps
17Malachi CorleyWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
D.J. ReedCBEric WattsDELeonard Taylor IIIDTIsrael AbanikandaRBCarter WarrenTMax MitchellT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
W.Levis pass+22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:28 · Titans · 2nd & 9 at NYJ 40 · gained 40 · +3.84 EP · +22.5% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 74 yards from the NYJ 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1161%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0064%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0241%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.360%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 38
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 35
Jets0Titans6
Jets0Titans7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Jets 10
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 41
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Jets 6
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 16
Intercepted1 play
Jets6Titans7
Jets7Titans7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Titans 12
Jets7Titans10
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Jets 17
3rd quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jets13Titans10
Jets14Titans10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Titans 26
Punt7 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Jets17Titans10
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Jets17Titans16
Jets17Titans17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Jets 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 41
4th quarter42 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 33
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 37
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jets23Titans17
Jets24Titans17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Titans 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended16 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Jets 8
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
