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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q3 3:28, 2nd and 9, on Calvin Ridley — 15.8 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 3:28, Titans +15.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:28 · 2nd and 9
Calvin Ridley
Titans
(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jets won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Braelon Allen's 20-yard rushing touchdown with 4:36 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryTitans
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Titans’s 60 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Titans 5.
Titans outgained Jets 300-266 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Jets2.1 ptsright on their number · −0.0 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 55 snaps
Titans-10.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →Jets55.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 43 early downs
Titans51.1%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 44%
Tendencies room →Jets21.2%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Titans28.6%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.9%.
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 38.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 54%
Tendencies room →Jets14.3%leaned — sat back · −14.1 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Titans27.3%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 28.9%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jets17.1%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Titans9.1%inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 14.1 points below their season mean of 28.4% and 1.6 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
19/28, 192 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.4 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
18/30, 176 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.7 expected points added · -8.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Calvin Ridley banked 12.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin RidleyWR · Featured Receiver | 24.7 | +12.1 | 82% | 91% | 22% | 54% | 1 car, 10 yd, 1 TD · 4/6, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 24.4 | +5.7 | 72% | 73% | 28% | 11% | 14 car, 62 yd · 7/8, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Braelon AllenRB · Committee Back | 19.6 | +10.6 | 35% | 39% | 14% | 0% | 7 car, 33 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.2 | −3.2 | 67% | 63% | 22% | 6% | 17 car, 62 yd · 5/6, 40 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 15.1 | +3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 176 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Will LevisQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/28, 192 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 38 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | −0.1 | 96% | 100% | 21% | 38% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/6, 57 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 5.1 | −1.0 | 33% | 37% | 7% | 0% | 6 car, 20 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 4.6 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Tyler BoydWR · Featured Receiver | 4.6 | −3.5 | 76% | 89% | 19% | 17% | 2/5, 26 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.5 | 42% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.7 | 82% | 79% | 14% | 33% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.1 | 65% | 73% | 3% | 11% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.8 | 93% | 91% | 7% | 1% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.3 | 44% | 51% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Irvin CharlesWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.2 | 37% | 27% | 10% | 8% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 50% | 46% | 4% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jha'Quan JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:28 · Titans · 2nd & 9 at NYJ 40 · gained 40 · +3.84 EP · +22.5% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 74 yards from the NYJ 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Titans6Jets0Titans7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Jets6Titans7Jets7Titans7Jets7Titans10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jets13Titans10Jets14Titans10Jets17Titans10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jets17Titans16Jets17Titans17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Jets23Titans17Jets24Titans17How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/30 | 176 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Braelon Allen | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Garrett Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 21% | +3.8 |
| Breece Hall | 7 | 8 | 52 | 1 | 28% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 19/28 | 192 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_NYJ_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 41 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +1.7 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 14% | +2.0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −0.6 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Solomon Thomas | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will McDonald | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 77 | 1 | 22% | +5.8 |
| Tony Pollard | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 22% | +1.4 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 19% | −2.0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −0.9 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −0.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Amani Hooker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Baker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
