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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 23 at New England Patriots 20. Final.
Seahawks -3.5 no coverO 39 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 2
Seattle Seahawks 23, Patriots 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 8:20, 4th and 1 — 19.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 8:20 · 4th and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(8:20) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
Seahawks closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 8:20, Patriots +19.7% win probability on one snap.
19.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rhamondre StevensonSeahawksOT 8:38(8:38) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (0-T.Dodson; 90-Ja.Reed). Penalty on NE-70-C.Wallace, Illegal Formation, declined.
15.4pts
Zach CharbonnetSeahawksOT 6:14(6:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet to NE 38 for 7 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
16.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 2 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Patriots at 6 of 16 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Seahawks173 of 189 plays carry both curves
(8:20) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
Swing +19.7 for PatriotsExpected points −0.53 for PatriotsModel and market agree here.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 8:20NE +20% win prob(8:20) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
Overtime · 6:14NE +16% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet to NE 38 for 7 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
Overtime · 8:38SEA +15% win prob(8:38) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (0-T.Dodson; 90-Ja.Reed). Penalty on NE-70-C.Wallace, Illegal Formation, declined.
Overtime · 7:01NE +15% win prob(7:01) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at SEA 31 - No Play.
4th · 7:11NE +15% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left end pushed ob at SEA 25 for 45 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Overtime · 4:48NE +14% win prob(4:48) 26-Z.Charbonnet left end pushed ob at NE 13 for 9 yards (31-J.Jones; 25-M.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 31-yard field goal with 4:41 left in overtime put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:58Jason Myers·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+320–20
Overtime4:41Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryPatriots
Seahawks4–3Patriots
359Total yards310
5.6Yards per play4.7
47%Success rate44%
47%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays5
16First downs17
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.06Patriots: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Seahawks: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.02Patriots: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Seahawks: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.09Patriots: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Patriots’s 66 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Patriots 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, +11.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 1.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 1.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
NE's blitz rate sent turned over: 28.6% in week 1 against 55.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Patriots10.6%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.3 pts, 8.2 points below their season mean of -3.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
B.Baringer punts+20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:20) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
OT 8:20 · Patriots · 4th & 1 at NE 39 · gained nothing · -0.53 EP · +19.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 72 yards from the SEA 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
47%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1380%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0053%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0350%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0150%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 38
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 27
Seahawks0Patriots6
Seahawks0Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Seahawks 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Seahawks6Patriots7
Seahawks7Patriots7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 44
2nd quarter56 plays
Seahawks7Patriots10
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 47 to the Seahawks 11
Seahawks13Patriots10
Seahawks14Patriots10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Seahawks14Patriots13
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Seahawks 10
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 34
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 10
Seahawks17Patriots13
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Patriots 25
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Patriots 23
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 13
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 26
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Seahawks 22
4th quarter43 plays
Seahawks17Patriots19
Seahawks17Patriots20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Seahawks 1
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Seahawks 21
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxNine defenders
Seahawks20Patriots20
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Patriots 15
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 37
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
Overtime16 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 39
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks23Patriots20
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Patriots 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
