2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Minnesota VikingsWinner

SF -4.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓Dome49ers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 23–17. Biggest swing: Q2 9:51, MIN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:51SF 0 — MIN 9MIN ball · 2nd & 9SF 56%

(9:51) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:51MIN +22% win prob(9:51) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:48SF +14% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 11-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at SF 10. 54-F.Warner to SF 35 for 25 yards (71-C.Darrisaw; 14-S.Darnold).
Q3 · 7:04SF +12% win prob(7:04) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 44-K.Juszczyk INTERCEPTED by 44-J.Metellus (51-B.Cashman) at SF 22. 44-J.Metellus pushed ob at SF 10 for 12 yards (77-D.Puni; 65-A.Banks).
Q2 · 13:33MIN +12% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings to MIN 20 for 25 yards (24-C.Bynum).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:48MIN Field goal
(4:48) 16-W.Reichard 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: SF 0 — MIN 3
Q2 · 9:51MIN Touchdown
(9:51) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 0 — MIN 10
Q2 · 2:00SF Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — MIN 10
Q2 · 0:03MIN Field goal
(:03) 16-W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: SF 7 — MIN 13
Q3 · 6:53MIN Touchdown
(6:53) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 83-J.Nailor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — MIN 20
Q4 · 10:21SF Touchdown
(10:21) 24-J.Mason right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — MIN 20
Q4 · 3:33MIN Field goal
(3:33) 16-W.Reichard 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: SF 14 — MIN 23
Q4 · 1:15SF Field goal
(1:15) 4-J.Moody 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 17 — MIN 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Vikings
Offensive plays	67	51
Total yards	396	405 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	7.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	-0.04 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	66%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	2/10	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	6	4 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

28/36, 319 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.6 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

17/26, 268 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

20 att, 100 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

10 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

4/7 for 133 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

8/10 for 110 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 30	5	7	1:35	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 15	10	46	3:54	Punt
3	SF	SF 20	5	40	2:36	Punt
4	MIN	SF 24	5	20	2:10	Field goal +3
5	SF	SF 10	16	83	9:18	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 2	3	99	0:52	Touchdown +7
7	SF	SF 30	7	28	2:59	Turnover on downs
8	MIN	MIN 42	4	37	1:58	Interception
9	SF	SF 35	6	65	2:45	Touchdown +7
10	MIN	MIN 30	9	49	1:53	Field goal +3
11	MIN	MIN 30	5	10	1:25	Punt
12	SF	SF 34	6	10	3:16	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 15	5	19	2:38	Punt
14	SF	SF 13	2	0	0:48	Interception
15	MIN	SF 10	2	10	0:04	Touchdown +7
16	SF	SF 35	8	17	4:21	Fumble
17	MIN	50	5	48	2:20	Fumble
18	SF	SF 1	13	84	4:52	Touchdown +7
19	MIN	MIN 30	15	67	6:46	Field goal +3
20	SF	SF 30	10	62	2:18	Field goal +3
21	MIN	SF 42	3	0	1:12	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 99 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	28/36	319	1	1	6	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Mason	20	100	5.0	1	0.4
Brock Purdy	2	12	6.0	0	-1.6
Isaac Guerendo	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6
Deebo Samuel	2	-10	-5.0	0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	8	10	110	0	28%	3.9
George Kittle	7	8	76	1	22%	7.1
Brandon Aiyuk	4	5	43	0	14%	3.9
Jauan Jennings	2	4	37	0	11%	0.1
Eric Saubert	2	2	26	0	6%	1.5
Kyle Juszczyk	3	5	19	0	14%	-5.1
Jordan Mason	1	1	4	0	3%	0.7
Chris Conley	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	6	2	1.0	1	2
Deommodore Lenoir	2	4	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	4	1	2.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	2	3	0.0	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	4	1	0.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	3	0	0.0	0	0
Malik Mustapha	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Givens	1	1	1.0	0	0
George Odum	2	0	0.0	0	2

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	17/26	268	2	1	3	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ty Chandler	10	82	8.2	4.0
Sam Darnold	5	32	6.4	-0.2
Aaron Jones	9	32	3.6	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	4	7	133	1	29%	7.3
Jalen Nailor	3	4	54	1	17%	3.4
Aaron Jones	5	6	36	0	25%	-6.9
Trent Sherfield	1	2	17	0	8%	-5.1
Brandon Powell	2	2	16	0	8%	2.7
Johnny Mundt	2	3	12	0	13%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Cashman	5	8	1.0	0	3
Josh Metellus	5	2	0.0	1	1
Camryn Bynum	2	5	0.0	0	0
Ivan Pace	4	3	0.0	0	0
Patrick Jones	2	3	2.0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	4	1	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	3	2	0.0	0	1
Byron Murphy	3	1	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	4	0	1.0	0	1
Jonathan Greenard	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -4.5
Closing total: 46.5
SF moneyline: -218
MIN moneyline: +180

49ers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 40 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: SF 6 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Kevin O'Connell