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2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco17
BY 6final margin
VikingsMinnesota23
San Francisco 49ers 17 at Minnesota Vikings 23. Final.
49ers -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 2
Minnesota Vikings 23, 49ers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:51, 2nd and 9, on Justin Jefferson — 22.5 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:51 · 2nd and 9
Justin Jefferson
Vikings
(9:51) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 46.5 ✓
Dome
49ers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 23–17. Biggest swing: Q2 9:51, Vikings +22.5% win probability on one snap.
22.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Fred Warner49ersQ2 4:48(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 11-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at SF 10. 54-F.Warner to SF 35 for 25 yards (71-C.Darrisaw; 14-S.Darnold).
14.3pts
Josh MetellusVikingsQ3 7:04(7:04) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 44-K.Juszczyk INTERCEPTED by 44-J.Metellus (51-B.Cashman) at SF 22. 44-J.Metellus pushed ob at SF 10 for 12 yards (77-D.Puni; 65-A.Banks).
12.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against 49ers at 2 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Vikings at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 7 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on 49ers153 of 166 plays carry both curves
(9:51) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +22.5 for VikingsExpected points +7.67 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 24 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:51MIN +22% win prob(9:51) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:48SF +14% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 11-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at SF 10. 54-F.Warner to SF 35 for 25 yards (71-C.Darrisaw; 14-S.Darnold).
3rd · 7:04SF +12% win prob(7:04) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 44-K.Juszczyk INTERCEPTED by 44-J.Metellus (51-B.Cashman) at SF 22. 44-J.Metellus pushed ob at SF 10 for 12 yards (77-D.Puni; 65-A.Banks).
2nd · 13:33MIN +12% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings to MIN 20 for 25 yards (24-C.Bynum).
4th · 10:21MIN +10% win prob(10:21) 24-J.Mason right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:32MIN +9% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to SF 39 for 16 yards (54-F.Warner).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Will Reichard's 22-yard field goal with 4:48 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:48Will Reichard·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+30–3
2nd9:51Justin Jefferson·97-yd TD catch97-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+70–10
4th3:33Will Reichard·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+314–23
4th1:15Jake Moody·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+317–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryVikings
49ers4–4Vikings
396Total yards405
5.9Yards per play7.9
49%Success rate49%
20%Third-down rate58%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays7
22First downs18
6Sacks taken4
2Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Vikings, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.04Vikings: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.0249ers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.12Vikings: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.1749ers: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.08Vikings: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 67 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Vikings’s 51 at 61%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Vikings 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 1 against 60.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Vikings18.2%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteSF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 38.3 points above their season mean of 21.7% and 1.8 times their own 20.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:33) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings to MIN 20 for 25 yards (24-C.Bynum).
Q2 13:33 · 49ers · 4th & 3 at MIN 45 · gained 25 · +4.49 EP · +13.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 99 yards from the MIN 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
48%
Yards
799
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2470%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.4783%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.2350%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.6142%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1314%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3320%
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 37
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 48
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to midfield
49ers0Vikings3
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 4
The period ended12 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 48
2nd quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.4 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Vikings 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
49ers0Vikings9
49ers0Vikings10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 3
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Vikings 43
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 42 to the 49ers 21
49ers6Vikings10
49ers7Vikings10
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Vikings 7
49ers7Vikings13
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the 49ers 21
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 34
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Vikings 49
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 41
Intercepted2 plays
49ers7Vikings19
49ers7Vikings20
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost9 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Vikings 39
Fumble lost5 plays, from midfield to the 49ers 20
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
49ers13Vikings20
49ers14Vikings20
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the Vikings 10
49ers14Vikings23
Field goal18 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the 49ers 4
49ers17Vikings23
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Vikings 4
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
