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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Buccaneers163 of 176 plays carry both curves
(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].
Swing −42.8 for LionsExpected points −2.98 for LionsThe model had Buccaneers 5 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:01TB +43% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].
4th · 1:23DET +27% win prob(1:23) 26-J.Gibbs left end pushed ob at TB 13 for 23 yards (29-C.Izien).
4th · 0:42TB +26% win prob(:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to DET 47, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to TB 44 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft).
4th · 7:41TB +24% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Izien [95-C.Brewer] at TB 9. 29-C.Izien to TB 26 for 17 yards (9-J.Williams).
4th · 9:22DET +16% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle to TB 22 for 24 yards (35-J.Dean).
4th · 0:06TB +16% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kennedy [0-Y.Diaby].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Baker Mayfield's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 0:42 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:34Chase McLaughlin·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap E.Deckers+33–0
1st9:05Chase McLaughlin·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap E.Deckers+36–0
1st7:16Jake Bates·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+36–3
2nd12:51Jake Bates·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+36–6
3rd0:42Baker Mayfield·11-yd TD run11-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+720–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryLions
Buccaneers1–7Lions
217Total yards463
4.7Yards per play5.6
37%Success rate43%
20%Third-down rate41%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
12First downs23
5Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.07Lions: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Buccaneers: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.17Lions: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Buccaneers: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.17Lions: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 46 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Lions’s 82 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Lions 6.
NoteLions outgained Buccaneers 463-217 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Lions18.5%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteDET's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 19.3%, 17.2 points below their season mean of 36.5% and 1.5 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−38% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].
Q4 1:01 · Lions · 4th & 8 at TB 11 · gained 5 · -2.98 EP · −38.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 76 yards from the DET 18 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
43%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.1070%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.3255%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.0957%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0550%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-1.2780%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Buccaneers3Lions0
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Lions 3
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Buccaneers6Lions0
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Lions 37
Buccaneers6Lions3
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Buccaneers 3
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 44
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Buccaneers 28
2nd quarter48 plays
Buccaneers6Lions6
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 17
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Buccaneers12Lions6
Buccaneers13Lions6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Lions 41
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Offense on the fieldTwo corners, three inside linebackers, one long snapper, one outside linebacker, one punter, two backs and one tight endDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and four backsRoute runPostPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Punt13 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Buccaneers 48
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 45
The period ended15 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Buccaneers 9
3rd quarter37 plays
Buccaneers13Lions9
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Buccaneers 13
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers13Lions15
Buccaneers13Lions16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Buccaneers 1
Buccaneers19Lions16
Buccaneers20Lions16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Lions 11
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 36
4th quarter51 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Buccaneers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 27
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Buccaneers 18
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Buccaneers 11
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Buccaneers 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Buccaneers 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -7.5
Closing total
51.5
Buccaneers moneyline
+295
Lions moneyline
-375
Lions closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 36 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dan Campbell
3rd · 0:42
DET +14% win prob
(:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00TB +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET 43. 32-B.Branch to DET 44 for 1 yard (14-C.Godwin).
