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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 2
It turned at Q4 1:01, 4th and 8, on Jahmyr Gibbs — 42.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, Buccaneers +42.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:01 · 4th and 8
Jahmyr Gibbs
Buccaneers
(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].
42.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 17 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 10 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Baker Mayfield's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 0:42 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryLions
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 46 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Lions’s 82 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Lions 6.
Lions outgained Buccaneers 463-217 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers2.0 ptsright on their number · +2.1 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 46 snaps
Lions-2.1 ptsright on their number · +1.6 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 82 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 82%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers47.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 36 early downs
Lions63.3%leaned — passed early · +14.4 vs their 48.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 60 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 66%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers25.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Lions19.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.2 vs their 36.5%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 165%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
Lions50.0%right on their number · −13.3 vs their 63.3%, and they swing ±39.3 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 91%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers31.6%inside their normal wobble · −12.3 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Lions25.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 35.9%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers17.5%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Lions18.5%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
DET's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 19.3%, 17.2 points below their season mean of 36.5% and 1.5 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
34/55, 307 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-13.7 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected
Passing · TB
12/19, 185 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.4 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
11/18 for 119 yds, 0 TD
34% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chris Godwin banked 11.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris GodwinWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.7 | +11.1 | 79% | 85% | 42% | 50% | 7/8, 117 yd, 1 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.9 | −8.8 | 92% | 90% | 34% | 45% | 11/18, 119 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 18.8 | +6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/19, 185 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 17.6 | −2.0 | 62% | 64% | 13% | 0% | 13 car, 84 yd · 7/7, 22 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB | 17.0 | +1.8 | 35% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 11 car, 35 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 35 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 14.4 | −8.1 | 91% | 88% | 21% | 34% | 1 car, 15 yd · 5/11, 79 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 8.8 | −16.9 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 34/55, 307 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.2 | −3.2 | 79% | 89% | 32% | 28% | 3/6, 42 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −1.1 | 36% | 40% | 8% | 6% | 3/4, 27 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −0.1 | 88% | 83% | 6% | 1% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 3.3 | −3.7 | 71% | 70% | 5% | 0% | 10 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −3.6 | 39% | 36% | 8% | 10% | 2/4, 12 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.9 | 79% | 85% | 11% | 26% | 1/2, 21 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 2.7 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Bucky IrvingRB | 2.2 | −1.2 | 35% | 33% | 0% | — | 7 car, 22 yd |
| Tom KennedyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 21% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | -0.4 | −6.5 | 100% | 100% | 11% | 0% | 1 car, -4 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].
Q4 1:01 · Lions · 4th & 8 at TB 11 · gained 5 · -2.98 EP · −38.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 76 yards from the DET 18 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers3
Lions0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers6Lions0Buccaneers6Lions3Buccaneers6Lions6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers12Lions6Buccaneers13Lions6How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers13Lions9How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers13Lions15Buccaneers13Lions16Buccaneers19Lions16Buccaneers20Lions16How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/19 | 185 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Bucky Irving | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Rachaad White |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 7 | 8 | 117 | 1 | 42% | +9.6 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 32% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SirVocea Dennis | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Izien |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 34/55 | 307 | 0 | 2 | 0 | −13.7 |
| Jack Fox | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_02_TB_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 36 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 18 |
| 1.8 |
| 0 |
| −3.6 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| −1.9 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Cade Otton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tykee Smith | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 |
| K.J. Britt | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Brewer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| +3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13 | 84 | 6.5 | 0 | +2.8 |
| David Montgomery | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 18 | 119 | 0 | 34% | +3.1 |
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 11 | 79 | 0 | 21% | −2.8 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 8% | −0.8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 13% | −5.7 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2% | +3.6 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −5.2 |
| Tom Kennedy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 4 | 1 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Anzalone | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
