2024 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2024 · Ford Field

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Detroit Lions

DET -7.5 upsetU 51.5 ✓DomeLions closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, TB +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:01TB 20 — DET 16DET ball · 4th & 8TB 51%

(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:01TB +43% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to TB 6 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 29-C.Izien) [0-Y.Diaby].
Q4 · 1:23DET +27% win prob(1:23) 26-J.Gibbs left end pushed ob at TB 13 for 23 yards (29-C.Izien).
Q4 · 0:42TB +26% win prob(:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to DET 47, Center-86-E.Deckers. 11-K.Raymond to TB 44 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft).
Q4 · 7:41TB +24% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Izien [95-C.Brewer] at TB 9. 29-C.Izien to TB 26 for 17 yards (9-J.Williams).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:34TB Field goal
(11:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — DET 0
Q1 · 9:05TB Field goal
(9:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 6 — DET 0
Q1 · 7:16DET Field goal
(7:16) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: TB 6 — DET 3
Q2 · 12:51DET Field goal
(12:51) 39-J.Bates 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: TB 6 — DET 6
Q2 · 9:15TB Touchdown
(9:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 13 — DET 6
Q3 · 11:57DET Field goal
(11:57) 39-J.Bates 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: TB 13 — DET 9
Q3 · 3:32DET Touchdown
(3:32) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 13 — DET 16
Q3 · 0:42TB Touchdown
(:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 20 — DET 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Lions
Offensive plays	46	82
Total yards	217	463 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	37%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	2/10	7/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Lions outgained Buccaneers 463–217 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

34/55, 307 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-13.7 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

12/19, 185 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.4 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

13 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

11 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

11/18 for 119 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

7/8 for 117 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 30	8	17	3:29	Field goal +3
2	DET	DET 30	2	0	0:11	Interception
3	TB	DET 44	4	12	2:20	Field goal +3
4	DET	DET 30	6	57	1:47	Field goal +3
5	TB	TB 30	7	7	2:37	Punt
6	DET	DET 16	13	67	6:49	Field goal +3
7	TB	TB 30	8	70	3:39	Touchdown +7
8	DET	DET 22	13	30	4:06	Punt
9	TB	TB 13	6	32	3:10	Interception
10	DET	DET 44	9	47	1:52	End of half
11	DET	DET 30	7	42	3:07	Field goal +3
12	TB	TB 30	5	-3	2:20	Punt
13	DET	DET 32	13	68	6:07	Touchdown +7
14	TB	TB 30	8	55	2:52	Touchdown +7
15	DET	DET 30	7	24	2:41	Punt
16	TB	TB 9	5	14	2:56	Punt
17	DET	DET 48	5	34	2:23	Interception
18	TB	TB 26	5	9	2:22	Punt
19	DET	DET 18	13	76	4:19	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 6	4	4	0:20	Punt
21	DET	TB 44	6	18	0:31	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 27	1	0	0:02	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	12/19	185	1	1	5	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Baker Mayfield	5	34	6.8	1	4.1
Bucky Irving	7	22	3.1	0	-0.4
Rachaad White	10	18	1.8	0	-3.6
Cade Otton	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	7	8	117	1	42%	9.6
Mike Evans	3	6	42	0	32%	-1.9
Jalen McMillan	1	2	21	0	11%	0.4
Rachaad White	1	1	5	0	5%	-0.1
Cade Otton	0	2	0	0	11%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
SirVocea Dennis	6	5	0	0
Jamel Dean	7	3	0	1
Christian Izien	4	5	1	2
Jordan Whitehead	6	3	0	1
Tykee Smith	5	2	0	0
Zyon McCollum	5	1	1	4
K.J. Britt	2	2	0	0
Lavonte David	2	2	0	0
Joe Tryon	1	2	0	0
C.J. Brewer	1	2	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	34/55	307	0	2	0	-13.7
Jack Fox	1/1	17	0	0	0	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jahmyr Gibbs	13	84	6.5	0	2.8
David Montgomery	11	35	3.2	1	0.6
Jameson Williams	1	15	15.0	0	0.9
Jared Goff	2	5	2.5	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	11	18	119	34%	3.1
Jameson Williams	5	11	79	21%	-2.8
David Montgomery	4	4	35	8%	0.4
Kalif Raymond	3	4	27	8%	-0.8
Jahmyr Gibbs	7	7	22	13%	-5.7
Sione Vaki	1	1	17	2%	3.6
Sam LaPorta	2	3	13	6%	0.8
Tim Patrick	2	4	12	8%	-5.2
Tom Kennedy	0	1	0	2%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jack Campbell	4	2	0.0	0	0
Brian Branch	5	1	0.0	1	2
Aidan Hutchinson	4	1	4.5	0	0
Kerby Joseph	3	1	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	4	0	0.0	0	0
Levi Onwuzurike	0	4	0.5	0	0
Derrick Barnes	3	1	0.0	0	1
Alex Anzalone	2	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Rodriguez	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jameson Williams	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -7.5
Closing total: 51.5
TB moneyline: +295
DET moneyline: -375

Lions closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 36 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: TB 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Dan Campbell