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2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · AT&T Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

28

Dallas Cowboys

25

BAL -1.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓Dome

Baltimore Ravens 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:58, DAL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DAL ↑BAL ↓
Q4 · 2:58BAL 28 — DAL 24DAL ball · 3rd & 10BAL 95%

(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:58DAL +16% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 3:55DAL +10% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-N.Agholor to DAL 2 for 56 yards (13-D.Overshown).
  3. Q4 · 2:36DAL +9% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 34 for 9 yards (7-T.Diggs).
  4. Q1 · 6:38DAL +8% win prob(6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:42BAL Touchdown

    (9:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — DAL 0
  2. Q1 · 6:38DAL Field goal

    (6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — DAL 3
  3. Q1 · 2:45BAL Touchdown

    (2:45) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — DAL 3
  4. Q2 · 0:31BAL Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 21 — DAL 3
  5. Q2 · 0:06DAL Field goal

    (:06) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: BAL 21 — DAL 6
  6. Q3 · 12:06BAL Touchdown

    (12:06) 22-D.Henry left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 28 — DAL 6
  7. Q4 · 8:57DAL Touchdown

    (8:57) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 28 — DAL 12
  8. Q4 · 7:12DAL Touchdown

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 28 — DAL 18
  9. Q4 · 2:58DAL Touchdown

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 28 — DAL 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensCowboys
Offensive plays5872
Total yards458 (edge)412
Yards per play7.9 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.37 (edge)0.01
Success rate50% (edge)36%
Dropback rate29%79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.56 (edge)0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.29 (edge)-0.06
Third downs4/97/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)13 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)22
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

28/51, 379 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.2 expected points added · -10.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12/15, 182 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

25 att, 151 yds, 2 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

6.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Jake FergusonTE

6/11 for 95 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

4/7 for 67 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · -3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 159172:57Punt
2BALBAL 296712:27Touchdown +7
3DALDAL 308243:03Field goal +3
4BALBAL 309703:52Touchdown +7
5DALDAL 308703:07Fumble
6BALBAL 99345:16Punt
7DALDAL 7401:04Punt
8BALBAL 47492:28Punt
9DALDAL 137212:39Punt
10BALBAL 129882:42Touchdown +7
11DALDAL 304370:23Field goal +3
12BAL—100:02End of half
13BALBAL 307803:02Touchdown +7
14DALDAL 2910134:06Punt
15BALBAL 119426:16Punt
16DALDAL 237391:49Turnover on downs
17BALBAL 397334:06Missed field goal
18DALDAL 367641:48Touchdown +6
19DALDAL 449561:46Touchdown +6
20BALDAL 47571:41Punt
21DALDAL 912712:33Touchdown +7
22BALBAL 218242:53End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 88 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson12/1518210010.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry251516.023.2
Lamar Jackson14876.216.8
Justice Hill5336.601.0
Zay Flowers133.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nelson Agholor115607%4.8
Charlie Kolar113007%1.9
Rashod Bateman3428127%3.4
Derrick Henry112307%1.4
Justice Hill2221013%1.6
Zay Flowers3420027%0.3
Isaiah Likely11407%-0.9
Mark Andrews01007%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith640.001
Kyle Hamilton550.000
Brandon Stephens500.001
Marcus Williams130.001
Travis Jones300.000
Trenton Simpson120.001
Malik Harrison110.000
Ar'Darius Washington200.001
Tavius Robinson200.000
Nate Wiggins200.000

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott28/513792036.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle8324.000.9
Dak Prescott273.510.6
Ezekiel Elliott362.00-1.2
Deuce Vaughn252.50-0.7
Kavontae Turpin111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jake Ferguson61195022%2.0
CeeDee Lamb4767014%-3.8
Kavontae Turpin335116%7.0
Jalen Tolbert3542110%4.0
Hunter Luepke234106%3.1
Rico Dowdle3524010%-0.9
Jalen Brooks132406%1.1
Brandin Cooks2616012%-1.9
Deuce Vaughn12804%-0.5
Ezekiel Elliott12604%-1.6
Luke Schoonmaker12504%-0.7
Tyler Smith11002%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Kendricks470.000
Caelen Carson610.000
Donovan Wilson150.000
Trevon Diggs510.000
DeMarvion Overshown230.000
Micah Parsons410.000
Demarcus Lawrence130.000
Malik Hooker400.000
Damone Clark210.000
Mazi Smith300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Closing total
47.5
BAL moneyline
-120
DAL moneyline
+100

Ravens closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 53 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
BAL 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Mike McCarthy