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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:50 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 28, Cowboys 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:58, 3rd and 10, on Kavontae Turpin — 15.6 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:58 · 3rd and 10
Kavontae Turpin
Cowboys
(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Ravens closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Baltimore Ravens 28–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:58, Cowboys +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nelson AgholorRavensQ1 3:55(3:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-N.Agholor to DAL 2 for 56 yards (13-D.Overshown).
9.5pts
Zay FlowersRavensQ4 2:36(2:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 34 for 9 yards (7-T.Diggs).
9.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Ravens178 of 187 plays carry both curves
(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.6 for CowboysExpected points +3.43 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:58DAL +16% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:55DAL +10% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-N.Agholor to DAL 2 for 56 yards (13-D.Overshown).
4th · 2:36DAL +9% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 34 for 9 yards (7-T.Diggs).
1st · 6:38DAL +8% win prob(6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
4th · 2:28DAL +6% win prob(2:28) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 35 for 1 yard (21-C.Carson).
1st · 10:15DAL +5% win prob(10:15) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 88-C.Kolar pushed ob at DAL 9 for 30 yards (21-C.Carson).
2nd · 14:40BAL +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lamar Jackson's 9-yard rushing touchdown with 9:42 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:42Lamar Jackson·9-yd TD run9-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st6:38Brandon Aubrey·65-yd field goal65-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+37–3
4th8:57Dak Prescott·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+628–12
4th7:12Jalen Tolbert·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point no good+628–18
4th2:58Kavontae Turpin·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+728–25
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryCowboys
Ravens7–1Cowboys
458Total yards412
7.9Yards per play5.7
50%Success rate36%
44%Third-down rate54%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
13Explosive plays6
24First downs22
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Ravens: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.01Cowboys: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.56Ravens: +0.56 expected points added per play
+0.02Cowboys: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 58 snaps at a 29% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 72 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Cowboys 4.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −22.7 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.6 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's play-action rate, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 26.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Cowboys5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -22.7 pts, 15.0 points below their season mean of -7.7 pts and 2.3 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Andrew VorheesG · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%63 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%63 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%63 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%63 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Heavy rotation67%42 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Heavy rotation60%38 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation59%37 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational41%26 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational41%26 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational33%21 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational22%14 snaps
66Ben ClevelandG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Nick SamacCT.J. TampaCBBrent UrbanDEBeau BradeFSMalaesala Aumavae-LauluGAdisa IsaacOLBDevontez WalkerWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Josh JohnsonQB
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
56Cooper BeebeC · Every snap100%80 snaps
73Tyler SmithG · Every snap100%80 snaps
60Tyler GuytonT · Every snap100%80 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%80 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%80 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Full-time89%71 snaps
3Brandin CooksWR · Full-time80%64 snaps
1Jalen TolbertWR · Heavy rotation75%60 snaps
87Jake FergusonTE · Heavy rotation66%53 snaps
23Rico DowdleRB · Rotational46%37 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeFB · Rotational38%30 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational31%25 snaps
9KaVontae TurpinWR · Situational23%18 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Situational19%15 snaps
83Jalen BrooksWR · Situational16%13 snaps
89Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Situational11%9 snaps
42Deuce VaughnRB · Situational6%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew BoothCBTyrus WheatDEBuddy JohnsonILBTrey LanceQBMatt WaletzkoTJohn Stephens Jr.TERyan FlournoyWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 9-K.Turpin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:58 · Cowboys · 3rd & 10 at BAL 16 · gained 16 · +3.43 EP · +18.1% win probability
176 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 91 yards from the DAL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
868
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0984%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.4847%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.2229%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13+0.210%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.5418%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1363%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.5240%
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 33
Ravens6Cowboys0
Ravens7Cowboys0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Cowboys 9
Ravens7Cowboys3
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Ravens 43
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Ravens13Cowboys3
Ravens14Cowboys3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Ravens 27
2nd quarter47 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 38
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Cowboys 44
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 34
Ravens20Cowboys3
Ravens21Cowboys3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Cowboys 13
Ravens21Cowboys6
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Ravens 33
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Ravens27Cowboys6
Ravens28Cowboys6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Cowboys 26
Punt12 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Ravens 29
Punt12 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Ravens 34
4th quarter57 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays
No good7 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Cowboys 28
Ravens28Cowboys12
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Ravens 1
Ravens28Cowboys18
Touchdown9 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Cowboys 40
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Ravens28Cowboys24
Ravens28Cowboys25
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Ravens 16
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -1.5
Closing total
47.5
Ravens moneyline
-120
Cowboys moneyline
+100
Ravens closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 53 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Mike McCarthy
(14:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 10 for 9 yards (2-N.Wiggins). FUMBLES (2-N.Wiggins), RECOVERED by BAL-32-M.Williams at BAL 9.
1st · 12:59DAL +5% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-B.Cooks to DAL 33 for 7 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
