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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 36 at Las Vegas Raiders 22. Final.
Raiders -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 3
Carolina Panthers 36, Raiders 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:08, 2nd and 10, on Tre Tucker — 10.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:08 · 2nd and 10
Tre Tucker
Raiders
(3:08) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 11-T.Tucker to CAR 26 for 54 yards (2-M.Jackson, 20-J.Fuller).
O 40 ✓
Dome
Raiders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 36–22. Biggest swing: Q1 3:08, Raiders +10.8% win probability on one snap.
10.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Xavier LegettePanthersQ2 11:24(11:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 17-X.Legette pushed ob at LV 10 for 35 yards (1-M.Epps). Penalty on LV-9-T.Wilson, Defensive Offside, declined.
9.4pts
Adam ThielenPanthersQ2 0:33(:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-19-A.Thielen was injured during the play.
10.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.58 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Raiders at 4 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.08 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Panthers172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(3:08) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 11-T.Tucker to CAR 26 for 54 yards (2-M.Jackson, 20-J.Fuller).
Swing +10.8 for RaidersExpected points +4.01 for RaidersThe model had Panthers 13 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:08LV +11% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 11-T.Tucker to CAR 26 for 54 yards (2-M.Jackson, 20-J.Fuller).
2nd · 0:33LV +10% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-19-A.Thielen was injured during the play.
2nd · 11:24LV +9% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 17-X.Legette pushed ob at LV 10 for 35 yards (1-M.Epps). Penalty on LV-9-T.Wilson, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 0:44LV +9% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-Dio.Johnson ran ob at LV 31 for 35 yards (18-J.Jones; 0-J.Bennett).
2nd · 9:33LV +8% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 5-Dio.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-T.Wilson].
2nd · 6:56CAR +7% win prob(6:56) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers (2-M.Jackson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Diontae Johnson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:33 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:20Chuba Hubbard·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+77–0
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Panthers: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Panthers: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.07Raiders: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Panthers: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.58Raiders: −0.58 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 69 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Raiders’s 60 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 6, Raiders 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −12.7 pts in week 2 against +5.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Raiders10.0%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteLV's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 26.9 points above their season mean of 33.1% and 2.0 times their own 13.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%74 snaps
50Robert HuntG · Every snap100%74 snaps
63Austin CorbettC · Every snap100%74 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Full-time86%64 snaps
5Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation78%58 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Heavy rotation73%54 snaps
15Jonathan MingoWR · Heavy rotation66%49 snaps
17Xavier LegetteWR · Heavy rotation59%44 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Heavy rotation58%43 snaps
6Miles SandersRB · Rotational42%31 snaps
0Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational35%26 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Rotational31%23 snaps
62Chandler ZavalaG · Rotational30%22 snaps
83David MooreWR · Rotational26%19 snaps
70Brady ChristensenG · Situational9%7 snaps
84Feleipe FranksTE · Situational3%2 snaps
3Raheem BlackshearRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Andrew RaymCShemar BartholomewCBTariq Castro-FieldsCBShy TuttleDTJarrett KingstonTMessiah SwinsonTE
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 17-X.Legette pushed ob at LV 10 for 35 yards (1-M.Epps). Penalty on LV-9-T.Wilson, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q2 11:24 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at LV 45 · gained 35 · +2.62 EP · +12.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 97 yards from the LV 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
49%
Yards
770
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1286%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.3067%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0273%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.210%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1513%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Panthers6Raiders0
Panthers7Raiders0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Raiders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 36
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Raiders 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Panthers7Raiders6
Panthers7Raiders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Panthers 2
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Panthers13Raiders7
Panthers14Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Raiders 5
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Panthers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Panthers 24
The period ended7 plays
Panthers20Raiders7
Panthers21Raiders7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Raiders 31
No good8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Panthers 39
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 31
Panthers24Raiders7
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Raiders 25
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 37
Panthers27Raiders7
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 17
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Raiders 40
4th quarter54 plays
Panthers33Raiders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 1
Panthers33Raiders13
Panthers33Raiders15
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Panthers 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 38
Intercepted2 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 25
Panthers36Raiders15
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 8
Panthers36Raiders21
Panthers36Raiders22
Touchdown16 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Panthers 8
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
