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2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

36

Las Vegas Raiders

22

LV -5.5 upsetO 40 ✓Dome

Carolina Panthers 36–22. Biggest swing: Q1 3:08, LV +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 3:08CAR 7 — LV 0LV ball · 2nd & 10CAR 51%

(3:08) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 11-T.Tucker to CAR 26 for 54 yards (2-M.Jackson, 20-J.Fuller).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 3:08LV +11% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 11-T.Tucker to CAR 26 for 54 yards (2-M.Jackson, 20-J.Fuller).
  2. Q2 · 0:33LV +10% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-19-A.Thielen was injured during the play.
  3. Q2 · 11:24LV +9% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 17-X.Legette pushed ob at LV 10 for 35 yards (1-M.Epps). Penalty on LV-9-T.Wilson, Defensive Offside, declined.
  4. Q2 · 0:44LV +9% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-Dio.Johnson ran ob at LV 31 for 35 yards (18-J.Jones; 0-J.Bennett).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:20CAR Touchdown

    (10:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — LV 0
  2. Q1 · 0:33LV Touchdown

    (:33) (No Huddle) 22-A.Mattison up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — LV 7
  3. Q2 · 9:33CAR Touchdown

    (9:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 5-Dio.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-T.Wilson]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — LV 7
  4. Q2 · 0:33CAR Touchdown

    (:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-19-A.Thielen was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 21 — LV 7
  5. Q3 · 10:03CAR Field goal

    (10:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 24 — LV 7
  6. Q3 · 4:50CAR Field goal

    (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 27 — LV 7
  7. Q4 · 13:37CAR Touchdown

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CAR 33 — LV 7
  8. Q4 · 11:03LV Touchdown

    (11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CAR 33 — LV 15
  9. Q4 · 4:50CAR Field goal

    (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 36 — LV 15
  10. Q4 · 1:03LV Touchdown

    (1:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 11-T.Tucker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-S.Thompson]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 36 — LV 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersRaiders
Offensive plays6960
Total yards439 (edge)333
Yards per play6.4 (edge)5.5
Expected points added / play0.20 (edge)-0.08
Success rate51% (edge)47%
Dropback rate58%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.31 (edge)0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.58
Third downs5/12 (edge)3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)19
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Andy DaltonQB

26/37, 319 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

12.4 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Gardner MinshewQB

18/28, 214 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.3 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

21 att, 114 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Zamir WhiteRB

10 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Diontae JohnsonWR

8/14 for 122 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Tre TuckerWR

7/9 for 96 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 3011704:47Touchdown +7
2LVLV 30561:22Punt
3CARCAR 217253:03Punt
4LVLV 311925:24Touchdown +7
5CARCAR 2512755:56Touchdown +7
6LVLV 406212:35Turnover on downs
7CARCAR 394-11:45Punt
8LVLV 25481:37Punt
9CARCAR 56191:37Punt
10LVLV 33430:42Punt
11CARCAR 325680:44Touchdown +7
12LVLV 305250:28Missed field goal
13LVLV 27541:39Punt
14CARCAR 347413:22Field goal +3
15LVLV 28591:45Turnover on downs
16CARLV 376403:28Field goal +3
17LVLV 30581:21Punt
18CARCAR 1612694:52Touchdown +6
19LVLV 309722:37Touchdown +8
20CARCAR 30551:45Punt
21LVLV 102150:37Interception
22CARLV 367283:47Field goal +3
23LVLV 3015703:51Touchdown +7
24CARLV 47300:56End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 92 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton26/3731930212.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard211145.403.7
Miles Sanders7172.41-1.6
Jonathan Mingo122.00-0.5
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00-2.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Diontae Johnson814122138%7.8
Chuba Hubbard5555114%5.4
Xavier Legette234208%1.6
Adam Thielen3540114%3.1
Tommy Tremble332908%0.2
Jonathan Mingo3418011%-1.1
Miles Sanders221305%-0.5
Ja'Tavion Sanders01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Michael Jackson600.013
Nick Scott420.000
Shaq Thompson420.000
Josey Jewell320.002
Xavier Woods130.000
Charles Harris300.000
LaBryan Ray211.000
Jayden Peevy211.001
Jaycee Horn110.000
Trevin Wallace200.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew18/28214112-4.3
Aidan O'Connell9/12821015.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zamir White10343.40-2.9
Gardner Minshew3144.70-2.0
Alexander Mattison372.31-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tre Tucker7996123%5.6
Jakobi Meyers7962123%5.6
Brock Bowers3441010%-1.5
Davante Adams4940023%-5.9
Alexander Mattison333708%2.3
Ameer Abdullah221305%0.6
Michael Mayer13708%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marcus Epps900.000
Robert Spillane441.000
Jack Jones610.001
Luke Masterson240.000
Nate Hobbs410.001
Trevon Moehrig500.000
Adam Butler120.000
Charles Snowden020.500
Isaiah Pola-Mao110.000
Jakorian Bennett020.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -5.5
Closing total
40
CAR moneyline
+200
LV moneyline
-245

Raiders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 58 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
CAR 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Antonio Pierce