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Indianapolis Colts 21, Bears 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:02, 3rd and 10, on Alec Pierce — 15.3 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:02 · 3rd and 10
Alec Pierce
Colts
(13:02) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to CHI 4 for 44 yards (1-J.Johnson; 9-J.Brisker).
Dome
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Indianapolis Colts 21–16. Biggest swing: Q2 13:02, Colts +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tremaine EdmundsBearsQ2 11:07(11:07) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (57-J.Sanborn) at CHI -4. Touchback.
13.1pts
Caleb WilliamsColtsQ4 6:52(6:52) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 11 for -7 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu) [97-L.Latu], touched at CHI 12, RECOVERED by IND-90-G.Stewart at CHI 16.
14.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Bears at 3 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 20 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 11 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — -0.13 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Bears176 of 188 plays carry both curves
(13:02) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to CHI 4 for 44 yards (1-J.Johnson; 9-J.Brisker).
Swing +15.3 for ColtsExpected points +4.46 for ColtsThe model had Colts 5 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:02IND +15% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to CHI 4 for 44 yards (1-J.Johnson; 9-J.Brisker).
4th · 6:52CHI +14% win prob(6:52) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 11 for -7 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu) [97-L.Latu], touched at CHI 12, RECOVERED by IND-90-G.Stewart at CHI 16.
2nd · 11:07CHI +13% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (57-J.Sanborn) at CHI -4. Touchback.
3rd · 7:30CHI +12% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to CHI 37 for 1 yard (95-D.Walker).
2nd · 9:00IND +12% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 83-K.Granson pushed ob at CHI 29 for 40 yards (9-J.Brisker). CHI-29-T.Stevenson was injured during the play.
3rd · 10:05IND +11% win prob(10:05) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to IND 30, Center-46-S.Daly. 6-A.Gould to IND 41 for 11 yards (22-E.Hicks). CHI-52-D.Taylor was injured during the play. PENALTY on IND-31-T.Goodson, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 8 - No Play. Indianapolis challenged the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 29-yard rushing touchdown with 8:26 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd8:26Jonathan Taylor·29-yd TD run29-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
3rd12:56Cairo Santos·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–7
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Bears: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Bears: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.45Colts: −0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Bears: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.03Colts: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 84 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Colts’s 51 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Colts 4.
NoteBears outgained Colts 395-310 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.9% in week 2 against 35.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.0 points.
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 2 against 83.3% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.8 points.
IND's blitz rate sent turned over: 47.1% in week 2 against 14.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Colts8.9%
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 50.8% and 1.1 times their own 13.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
76Teven JenkinsT · Every snap100%90 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%90 snaps
79Matt PryorT · Every snap100%90 snaps
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%90 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Every snap100%90 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap99%89 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Every snap99%89 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Full-time96%86 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time81%73 snaps
11DeAndre CarterWR · Heavy rotation63%57 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation53%48 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Rotational37%33 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Rotational33%30 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational23%21 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Situational10%9 snaps
80Collin JohnsonWR · Situational2%2 snaps
10Tyler ScottWR · Situational2%2 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Dominique RobinsonDEZacch PickensDTKhari BlasingameFBNoah SewellILBKeenan AllenWRVelus Jones Jr.WR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Richardson pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:07) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (57-J.Sanborn) at CHI -4. Touchback.
Q2 11:07 · Colts · 3rd & goal at CHI 3 · gained nothing · -5.65 EP · −13.3% win probability
174 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 81 yards from the CHI 18 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
38%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.0070%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0344%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.4758%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2338%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
No good12 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Colts 38
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 47
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Colts 33
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Bears 27
2nd quarter55 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Colts 39 to the Bears 3
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Colts 27
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bears0Colts6
Bears0Colts7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Bears 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended21 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Colts 1
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 31
The period ended12 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Colts 45
3rd quarter42 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Bears3Colts7
Field goal5 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Colts 34
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 32
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 23
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Bears 38
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 43
Bears3Colts13
Bears3Colts14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Bears 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Bears9Colts14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Colts 1
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Bears9Colts20
Bears9Colts21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 1
Bears15Colts21
Bears16Colts21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Colts 6
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -1.5
Closing total
43
Bears moneyline
+105
Colts moneyline
-125
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Bears 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Shane Steichen
2nd · 1:46CHI +11% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end to IND 13 for -12 yards (94-T.Lewis).
3rd · 9:53CHI +10% win prob(9:53) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 40-J.Jones (20-N.Cross) at CHI 45. 40-J.Jones ran ob at CHI 45 for no gain. IND-20-N.Cross was injured during the play.
