2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Chicago Bears

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -1.5 ✓U 43 ✓DomeColts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Indianapolis Colts 21–16. Biggest swing: Q2 13:02, IND +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:02CHI 0 — IND 0IND ball · 3rd & 10IND 55%

(13:02) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to CHI 4 for 44 yards (1-J.Johnson; 9-J.Brisker).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:02IND +15% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to CHI 4 for 44 yards (1-J.Johnson; 9-J.Brisker).
Q4 · 6:52CHI +14% win prob(6:52) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 11 for -7 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu) [97-L.Latu], touched at CHI 12, RECOVERED by IND-90-G.Stewart at CHI 16.
Q2 · 11:07CHI +13% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (57-J.Sanborn) at CHI -4. Touchback.
Q3 · 7:30CHI +12% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to CHI 37 for 1 yard (95-D.Walker).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 8:26IND Touchdown
(8:26) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 0 — IND 7
Q3 · 12:56CHI Field goal
(12:56) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 3 — IND 7
Q3 · 0:29IND Touchdown
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 3 — IND 14
Q4 · 8:25CHI Touchdown
(8:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CHI 9 — IND 14
Q4 · 5:25IND Touchdown
(5:25) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 9 — IND 21
Q4 · 2:05CHI Touchdown
(2:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-2-D.Moore has returned to the game. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 16 — IND 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Colts
Offensive plays	84	51
Total yards	395 (edge)	310
Yards per play	4.7	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20 (edge)	-0.21
Success rate	36% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	67%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.45
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	9/20 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Bears outgained Colts 395–310 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

33/52, 363 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-7.6 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

10/20, 167 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-10.3 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

23 att, 110 yds, 2 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Roschon JohnsonRB

8 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Rome OdunzeWR

6/11 for 112 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

10/11 for 97 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 30	12	32	5:27	Missed field goal
2	IND	IND 46	4	5	1:06	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 10	5	6	1:53	Punt
4	IND	IND 17	7	16	3:29	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 14	6	12	3:05	Punt
6	IND	IND 39	7	58	3:57	Interception
7	CHI	CHI 20	4	53	1:28	Interception
8	IND	IND 30	4	70	1:16	Touchdown +7
9	CHI	CHI 29	17	53	6:39	Turnover on downs
10	IND	IND 13	6	18	0:49	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 18	8	91	0:51	End of half
12	IND	IND 30	2	0	0:08	Interception
13	CHI	CHI 48	5	18	2:01	Field goal +3
14	IND	IND 26	5	16	1:29	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 16	4	-8	1:36	Interception
16	IND	CHI 45	4	13	2:21	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 37	4	6	1:34	Punt
18	IND	IND 20	10	75	5:30	Touchdown +7
19	CHI	CHI 30	15	68	7:00	Touchdown +6
20	IND	IND 30	6	6	1:29	Punt
21	CHI	CHI 18	1	-6	0:06	Fumble
22	IND	CHI 16	5	16	1:24	Touchdown +7
23	CHI	CHI 30	14	70	3:21	Touchdown +7
24	IND	IND 30	6	17	2:01	End of game

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 91 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a end of half.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Caleb Williams	33/52	363	2	2	4	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Roschon Johnson	8	30	3.8	2.0
D'Andre Swift	13	20	1.5	-8.4
Khalil Herbert	4	9	2.3	-1.7
Caleb Williams	1	8	8.0	0.4
Rome Odunze	1	2	2.0	-0.6
D.J. Moore	1	-6	-6.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rome Odunze	6	11	112	1	23%	1.5
Cole Kmet	10	11	97	1	23%	10.2
D.J. Moore	8	10	78	0	21%	-0.9
Roschon Johnson	4	5	32	0	10%	2.1
D'Andre Swift	2	4	22	0	8%	-0.1
DeAndre Carter	3	6	22	0	13%	-5.1
Gerald Everett	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
DeMarcus Walker	2	4	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	4	2	0.0	0	1
Jaquan Brisker	2	3	0.0	0	0
Tyrique Stevenson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	3	2	0.0	1	2
Montez Sweat	2	2	1.0	0	0
Gervon Dexter	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	1	1	0.0	1	1
T.J. Edwards	1	1	0.0	0	0
Khalil Herbert	1	0	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Anthony Richardson	10/20	167	0	2	1	-10.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	23	110	4.8	2	-3.1
Anthony Richardson	8	24	3.0	0	0.8
Trey Sermon	2	16	8.0	1	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Alec Pierce	1	2	44	11%	2.8
Kylen Granson	1	1	40	6%	3.1
Michael Pittman	4	5	36	28%	-3.9
Jonathan Taylor	1	2	25	11%	0.5
Josh Downs	3	5	22	28%	-2.1
Adonai Mitchell	0	1	0	6%	-1.4
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	6%	-0.8
Ashton Dulin	0	1	0	6%	-5.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zaire Franklin	4	9	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	6	6	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	3	6	0.5	0	1
Nick Cross	5	4	0.0	0	1
Julian Blackmon	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Jones	4	1	0.0	2	2
Dallis Flowers	4	0	0.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	3	0	0.0	0	0
Raekwon Davis	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kwity Paye	1	2	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -1.5
Closing total: 43
CHI moneyline: +105
IND moneyline: -125

Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CHI 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Matt Eberflus vs Shane Steichen