2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -6 upsetU 40.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:25, DEN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:25DEN 7 — TB 0TB ball · 3rd & 4TB 53%

(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at TB 46. 22-B.Jones to TB 9 for 37 yards (78-T.Wirfs; 1-R.White).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:25DEN +15% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at TB 46. 22-B.Jones to TB 9 for 37 yards (78-T.Wirfs; 1-R.White).
Q2 · 4:42DEN +9% win prob(4:42) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left tackle to TB 35 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left tackle to TB 35 for 5 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), RECOVERED by TB-90-L.Hall at TB 33.
Q1 · 13:47TB +8% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 11-J.Reynolds to TB 11 for 31 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q1 · 3:02TB +8% win prob(3:02) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:11DEN Touchdown
(11:11) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — TB 0
Q1 · 3:02DEN Touchdown
(3:02) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 14 — TB 0
Q2 · 9:29DEN Field goal
(9:29) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 17 — TB 0
Q2 · 1:54TB Touchdown
(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — TB 7
Q2 · 0:06DEN Field goal
(:06) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 20 — TB 7
Q4 · 14:55DEN Field goal
(14:55) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 23 — TB 7
Q4 · 7:35DEN Field goal
(7:35) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 26 — TB 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	63	56
Total yards	354 (edge)	223
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.38
Success rate	52% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	62%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.58
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/14 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	7
Turnovers	2	2

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

25/36, 216 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.1 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

25/33, 163 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-18.3 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Tyler BadieRB

9 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

9 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

7/11 for 68 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/9 for 53 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 30	8	75	3:55	Touchdown +7
2	TB	TB 25	5	2	1:43	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 33	4	5	1:27	Punt
4	TB	TB 13	5	17	2:45	Interception
5	DEN	TB 9	5	4	2:14	Touchdown +7
6	TB	TB 30	5	3	1:39	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 34	13	61	6:52	Field goal +3
8	TB	TB 30	8	25	3:21	Turnover on downs
9	DEN	DEN 45	4	20	1:29	Fumble
10	TB	TB 33	7	71	2:45	Touchdown +7
11	DEN	DEN 30	10	50	1:48	Field goal +3
12	TB	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	TB	TB 30	7	19	2:53	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 9	4	3	0:56	Punt
15	TB	TB 41	7	6	3:22	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 6	15	69	7:57	Field goal +3
17	TB	TB 30	11	45	5:00	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	50	2:22	Field goal +3
19	TB	TB 30	11	31	3:57	Fumble
20	DEN	DEN 47	6	17	3:08	Turnover on downs
21	TB	TB 38	1	4	0:25	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	25/36	216	0	0	0	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyler Badie	9	70	7.8	0	1.1
Bo Nix	9	47	5.2	1	5.7
Javonte Williams	5	12	2.4	0	-6.3
Jaleel McLaughlin	5	7	1.4	1	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	7	11	68	32%	0.6
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	6	8	37	24%	-0.8
Josh Reynolds	2	2	36	6%	2.5
Javonte Williams	4	4	29	12%	1.4
Adam Trautman	1	1	13	3%	0.8
Troy Franklin	2	5	11	15%	-2.1
Marvin Mims	1	1	9	3%	-0.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	1	7	3%	0.3
Nate Adkins	1	1	6	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	4	6	0.0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	6	1	0.0	0	0
Riley Moss	3	3	0.0	0	1
Brandon Jones	4	2	0.0	1	1
P.J. Locke	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Jackson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Dondrea Tillman	3	0	2.0	0	0
Zach Allen	1	2	1.0	0	0
Devon Key	1	1	1.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	1	1	1.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	25/33	163	1	1	7	-18.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bucky Irving	9	70	7.8	3.3
Rachaad White	6	17	2.8	-0.6
Sean Tucker	1	4	4.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	6	9	53	1	28%	0.5
Cade Otton	7	8	47	0	25%	-4.2
Rachaad White	5	6	18	0	19%	-3.5
Mike Evans	2	3	17	0	9%	-4.3
Bucky Irving	3	3	14	0	9%	1.0
Payne Durham	1	1	8	0	3%	0.7
Jalen McMillan	1	1	6	0	3%	0.5
Trey Palmer	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jamel Dean	8	4	0
Christian Izien	6	2	0
Lavonte David	2	5	0
Zyon McCollum	3	3	2
K.J. Britt	5	1	0
Tykee Smith	2	3	1
Jordan Whitehead	2	3	0
SirVocea Dennis	2	1	0
C.J. Brewer	1	1	1
YaYa Diaby	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -6
Closing total: 40.5
DEN moneyline: +200
TB moneyline: -245

Buccaneers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: DEN 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Todd Bowles