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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 3
It turned at Q1 5:25, 3rd and 4, on Brandon Jones — 14.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:25, Broncos +14.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:25 · 3rd and 4
Brandon Jones
Broncos
(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at TB 46. 22-B.Jones to TB 9 for 37 yards (78-T.Wirfs; 1-R.White).
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 4 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 2 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at TB 46. 22-B.Jones to TB 9 for 37 yards (78-T.Wirfs; 1-R.White).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Bo Nix's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 11:11 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 63 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 56 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Buccaneers 2.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's blitz rate sent, 69.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 9.2 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 17.5% in week 2 against 5.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.2 pts in week 2 against +10.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos10.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.0 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 63 snaps
Buccaneers1.2 ptsright on their number · +1.2 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 81%
Tendencies room →Broncos61.7%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 47 early downs
Buccaneers65.1%inside their normal wobble · +9.9 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 54%
Tendencies room →Broncos28.2%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.0%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos33.3%right on their number · +4.6 vs their 28.8%, and they swing ±33.3 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 91%
Tendencies room →Broncos52.5%leaned — sent pressure · +18.6 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers69.2%leaned — sent pressure · +25.3 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 38%
Tendencies room →Broncos22.5%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers5.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
TB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.1%, 10.3 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.7 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
25/36, 216 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
2.1 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · TB
25/33, 163 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-18.3 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
7/11 for 68 yds, 0 TD
32% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyler Badie banked 3.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 19.3 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/36, 216 yd · 9 car, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris GodwinWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.3 | +2.2 | 89% | 90% | 28% | 53% | 6/9, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.8 | −4.6 | 74% | 72% | 32% | 47% | 7/11, 68 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 11.4 | +2.8 | 32% | 23% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 70 yd · 3/3, 14 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | −2.0 | 74% | 77% | 24% | 18% | 6/8, 37 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Alpha Receiver | 9.7 | −1.3 | 91% | 90% | 25% | 30% | 7/8, 47 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 8.5 | −1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/33, 163 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 8.5 | −5.6 | 74% | 83% | 19% | 0% | 6 car, 17 yd · 5/6, 18 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 8.4 | −0.9 | 26% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 5 car, 7 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 7.0 | +3.1 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 9 car, 70 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Receiving Back | 6.1 | −7.3 | 51% | 69% | 12% | 0% | 5 car, 12 yd · 4/4, 29 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +2.4 | 51% | 59% | 6% | 11% | 2/2, 36 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −0.6 | 82% | 85% | 9% | 28% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −4.5 | 25% | 31% | 15% | 19% | 2/5, 11 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +1.0 | 68% | 72% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 24% | 31% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.6 | 21% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 37% | 28% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.4 | 77% | 80% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.4 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 21% | 23% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at TB 46. 22-B.Jones to TB 9 for 37 yards (78-T.Wirfs; 1-R.White).
Q1 5:25 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 4 at TB 30 · gained nothing · -5.89 EP · −15.0% win probability
149 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 79 yards from the DEN 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos6
Buccaneers0Broncos7Buccaneers0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos13Buccaneers0Broncos14Buccaneers0Broncos17Buccaneers0Broncos17Buccaneers6Broncos17Buccaneers7Broncos20Buccaneers7Broncos23Buccaneers7Broncos26Buccaneers7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 25/36 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Badie | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Bo Nix | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 1 | +5.7 |
| Javonte Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 11 | 68 | 0 | 32% | +0.6 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 6 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/33 | 163 | 1 | 1 | 7 | −18.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_03_DEN_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 12 |
| 2.4 |
| 0 |
| −6.3 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 | +0.9 |
| 24% |
| −0.8 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 6% | +2.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 15% | −2.1 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| P.J. Locke | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Jackson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Key | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 28% | +0.5 |
| Cade Otton | 7 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 25% | −4.2 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 19% | −3.5 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | −4.3 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +1.0 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Trey Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel Dean | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| K.J. Britt | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Brewer | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| YaYa Diaby | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
