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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 3
It turned at Q2 12:33, 3rd and 5, on A.St. — 9.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 12:33, Lions +9.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:33 · 3rd and 5
A.St.
Lions
(12:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Lions won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Cardinals at 1 of 9 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 3 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.54 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(12:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 5-yard touchdown catch with 12:33 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Amon-Ra St. Brown5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Goff · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+613–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryCardinals
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 66 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 53 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Cardinals 1.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 11.5 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: −2.1 pts in week 2 against −14.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.3% in week 2 against 35.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.3% in week 2 against 69.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.1% in week 2 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-14.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.6 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 66 snaps
Cardinals-1.1 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 86%
Tendencies room →Lions35.8%leaned — ran early · −13.1 vs their 48.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 53 early downs
Cardinals69.0%leaned — passed early · +12.3 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 65%
Tendencies room →Lions50.0%leaned — faked the run · +13.5 vs their 36.5%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Cardinals27.0%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 164%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 63.3%.
Cardinals20.0%right on their number · −7.3 vs their 27.3%, and they swing ±21.8 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 68%
Tendencies room →Lions27.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 35.9%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals26.9%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Lions10.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals7.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
DET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.3 pts, 10.6 points below their season mean of -3.7 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
21/34, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.6 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
Passing · DET
18/23, 199 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
5.9 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
7/8 for 75 yds, 1 TD
36% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added
Receiving · ARI
5/11 for 64 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · -3.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jahmyr Gibbs banked 5.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 21.2 | +1.2 | 51% | 46% | 14% | 0% | 23 car, 105 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 17 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | +4.6 | 96% | 100% | 36% | 34% | 7/8, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin HarrisonWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.4 | −3.4 | 88% | 95% | 32% | 44% | 5/11, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 16.3 | +5.9 | 46% | 54% | 0% | — | 16 car, 83 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 14.8 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/34, 207 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 45 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | +1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 199 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 6 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +0.3 | 90% | 92% | 26% | 18% | 8/9, 64 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | −1.3 | 69% | 54% | 23% | 14% | 4/5, 34 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −3.4 | 66% | 78% | 18% | 19% | 3/6, 35 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +1.7 | 63% | 69% | 9% | 14% | 2/2, 36 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −5.2 | 85% | 78% | 18% | 19% | 3/6, 25 yd |
| James ConnerRB | 3.5 | −2.4 | 75% | 78% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 17 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +1.1 | 32% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.1 | 50% | 50% | 5% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −7.2 | 71% | 92% | 14% | 38% | 1 car, -7 yd · 1/3, 9 yd |
| Trey BensonRB | 0.8 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 0.7 | −0.5 | 20% | 22% | 0% | — | 2 car, 7 yd |
| Tip ReimanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 34% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck at DET 43. 45-D.Gardeck to DET 33 for 10 yards (14-A.St. Brown).
Q3 8:10 · Lions · 2nd & 17 at DET 36 · gained nothing · -4.90 EP · −12.7% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 72 yards from the DET 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions6
Cardinals0Lions7Cardinals0Lions7Cardinals6Lions7Cardinals7Lions13Cardinals7Lions19Cardinals7Lions20Cardinals7Lions20Cardinals10How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Lions20Cardinals13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/23 | 199 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 23 | 105 | 4.6 | 1 | −3.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jared Goff |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 36% | +9.5 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Branch | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Carlton Davis | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/34 | 207 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −5.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_03_DET_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 33 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +3.4 |
| Brock Wright | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 23% | −2.4 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 14% | +0.9 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −1.8 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jack Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Wingo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| James Conner | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Trey Benson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 32% | −3.7 |
| Michael Wilson | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 26% | +1.6 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 18% | −0.3 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 18% | −2.7 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Wilson | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Owen Pappoe | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Starling Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
