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Detroit Lions 20, Cardinals 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:33, 3rd and 5, on A.St. — 9.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:33 · 3rd and 5
A.St.
Lions
(12:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.0
Dome
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Detroit Lions 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 12:33, Lions +9.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.St.LionsQ1 0:57(:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 30 for 20 yards (51-K.Barnes).
8.3pts
Dennis GardeckCardinalsQ3 8:10(8:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck at DET 43. 45-D.Gardeck to DET 33 for 10 yards (14-A.St. Brown).
7.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Lions won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Cardinals at 1 of 9 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 3 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.54 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Lions157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(12:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.0 for CardinalsExpected points −2.65 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 11 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:33ARI +9% win prob(12:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:57ARI +8% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 30 for 20 yards (51-K.Barnes).
3rd · 8:10DET +7% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck at DET 43. 45-D.Gardeck to DET 33 for 10 yards (14-A.St. Brown).
3rd · 13:11DET +6% win prob(13:11) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET -5. Touchback.
4th · 2:20ARI +6% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 46 for 18 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
2nd · 2:00ARI +5% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to ARI 36 for 14 yards (93-J.Jones, 34-J.Thompson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 5-yard touchdown catch with 12:33 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
2nd12:33Amon-Ra St. Brown·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+613–7
2nd0:36Jahmyr Gibbs·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+720–7
2nd0:02Matt Prater·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+320–10
4th3:52Matt Prater·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+320–13
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCardinals
Lions7–1Cardinals
375Total yards277
5.7Yards per play5.2
56%Success rate42%
50%Third-down rate11%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays3
23First downs12
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.24Cardinals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Lions: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.11Cardinals: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Lions: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.54Cardinals: −0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 66 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 53 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Cardinals 1.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 11.5 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 2.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: −2.1 pts in week 2 against −14.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.3% in week 2 against 35.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.3% in week 2 against 69.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.1% in week 2 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.3 pts, 10.6 points below their season mean of -3.7 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Gardeck at DET 43. 45-D.Gardeck to DET 33 for 10 yards (14-A.St. Brown).
Q3 8:10 · Lions · 2nd & 17 at DET 36 · gained nothing · -4.90 EP · −12.7% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 72 yards from the DET 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
48%
Yards
650
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0448%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0388%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0444%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13+0.100%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.4025%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.8338%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Lions6Cardinals0
Lions7Cardinals0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cardinals 1
Lions7Cardinals6
Lions7Cardinals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Lions 10
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cardinals 30
2nd quarter44 plays
Lions13Cardinals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 4
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 39
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 38
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 30
Lions19Cardinals7
Lions20Cardinals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Cardinals 21
Lions20Cardinals10
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Lions 24
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Lions 36
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 42
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 2 to the Cardinals 11
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Lions 24
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Cardinals 34
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Lions 44
4th quarter50 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 46
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Cardinals 48
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 45
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 28
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 47
Lions20Cardinals13
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Lions 26
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cardinals 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
