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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:42 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 3
It turned at Q1 0:58, 1st and 10, on Jaire Alexander — 18.8 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 30–14. Biggest swing: Q1 0:58, Packers +18.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:58 · 1st and 10
Jaire Alexander
Packers
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Titans at 4 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brayden Narveson's 21-yard field goal with 1:08 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Brayden Narveson21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+310–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryTitans
Packers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Titans’s 53 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Titans 2.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 81.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 21 team-games charted in week 3 — 14.3 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.5 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
TEN's blitz rate sent, 52.0%, sat 23.1 points above their season number of 28.9% — they sent pressure by 2.3 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
TEN's pass rate over expected, +11.6 pts, sat 18.3 points above their season number of −6.7 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 2 against 22.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-10.6 ptsright on their number · −2.3 vs their -8.2 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 59 snaps
Titans11.6 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +18.3 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+2.20× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 88%
Tendencies room →Packers28.9%leaned — ran early · −15.4 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 45 early downs
Titans81.4%off script — passed early · +26.6 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 56%
Tendencies room →Packers32.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Titans29.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.0 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 89%
Fourth Down room →Packers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −33.8 vs their 33.8%, and they swing ±19.5 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 38.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 56%
Tendencies room →Packers20.5%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Titans52.0%off script — sent pressure · +23.1 vs their 28.9%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+2.32× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →Packers22.7%leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Titans12.0%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
TEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 52.0%, 23.1 points above their season mean of 28.9% and 2.3 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
26/34, 260 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-17.0 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
Passing · GB
13/19, 202 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.5 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected
Receiving · TEN
6/7 for 73 yds, 1 TD
21% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Malik Willis banked 11.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik WillisQB · Starter QB | 25.4 | +11.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/19, 202 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 19.3 | +7.8 | 46% | 50% | 21% | 31% | 6/7, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Emanuel WilsonRB · Committee Back | 16.5 | +8.5 | 41% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 12 car, 50 yd · 2/2, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Will LevisQB · Starter QB | 13.6 | −1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/34, 260 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 12 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | −1.0 | 57% | 72% | 32% | 0% | 2 car, 19 yd · 4/6, 50 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 10.1 | +4.3 | 37% | 36% | 12% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 4/4, 54 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +3.2 | 28% | 30% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +5.5 | 54% | 60% | 11% | 35% | 2/2, 67 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | −0.1 | 46% | 48% | 15% | 14% | 4/5, 43 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +0.5 | 70% | 73% | 12% | 9% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −2.5 | 63% | 64% | 12% | 0% | 6 car, 14 yd · 3/4, 15 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −5.5 | 52% | 56% | 5% | 0% | 14 car, 43 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +0.1 | 67% | 60% | 16% | 6% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 3.5 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −1.2 | 73% | 88% | 11% | 40% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.3 | 72% | 70% | 9% | 23% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.6 | 48% | 45% | 9% | 25% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | 56% | 56% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Christopher BrooksRB | 0.3 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 46% | 52% | 11% | 31% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jha'Quan JacksonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:58 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 31 · gained nothing · -8.89 EP · −23.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 77 yards from the GB 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers6
Titans0Packers7Titans0Packers7Titans6Packers7Titans7Packers10Titans7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Packers16Titans7Packers17Titans7Packers20Titans7Packers26Titans7Packers27Titans7Packers27Titans13Packers27Titans14Packers30Titans14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 13/19 | 202 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 6 | 73 | 12.2 | 1 | +8.3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Josh Jacobs |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 | 11% | +6.9 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 32% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McDuffie | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 26/34 | 260 | 2 | 2 | 8 | −17.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_03_GB_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37; the game landed 44 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| 14 |
| 43 |
| 3.1 |
| 0 |
| −5.1 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Christopher Brooks | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| −0.9 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 11% | +3.2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 16% | +0.5 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.9 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Xavier McKinney | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Quay Walker | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Will Levis | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 7 | 73 | 1 | 21% | −2.6 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 12% | +1.6 |
| Josh Whyle | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 15% | +3.0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 5 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
