For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Nissan Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

30

Tennessee Titans

14

TEN -3 upsetO 37 ✓

Green Bay Packers 30–14. Biggest swing: Q1 0:58, GB +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑GB ↓
Q1 · 0:58GB 16 — TEN 7TEN ball · 1st & 10GB 50%

(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 0:58GB +19% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 0:35GB +10% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at GB 41 for -10 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare) [55-K.Enagbare], touched at GB 45, RECOVERED by GB-90-L.Van Ness at GB 47.
  3. Q2 · 1:38TEN +10% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at TEN 13 for 37 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
  4. Q1 · 13:43TEN +10% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 9-C.Watson to TEN 6 for 30 yards (21-R.McCreary).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:30GB Touchdown

    (12:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — TEN 0
  2. Q1 · 7:18TEN Touchdown

    (7:18) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 84-N.Vannett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — TEN 7
  3. Q1 · 1:08GB Field goal

    (1:08) 44-B.Narveson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — TEN 7
  4. Q1 · 0:58GB Touchdown

    (:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — TEN 7
  5. Q2 · 0:03GB Field goal

    (:03) 44-B.Narveson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 20 — TEN 7
  6. Q3 · 8:33GB Touchdown

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 31-Em.Wilson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 27 — TEN 7
  7. Q3 · 5:00TEN Touchdown

    (5:00) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 27 — TEN 14
  8. Q4 · 3:34GB Field goal

    (3:34) 44-B.Narveson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 30 — TEN 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersTitans
Offensive plays5953
Total yards378 (edge)237
Yards per play6.4 (edge)4.5
Expected points added / play0.12 (edge)-0.37
Success rate39%43% (edge)
Dropback rate42%83%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)-0.40
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.02 (edge)-0.19
Third downs5/14 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps1517 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)8
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.37.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

26/34, 260 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-17.0 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Malik WillisQB

13/19, 202 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.5 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Malik WillisQB

6 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Emanuel WilsonRB

12 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

6/7 for 73 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Tyjae SpearsRB

4/4 for 54 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 308702:35Touchdown +7
2TENTEN 3012655:10Touchdown +7
3GBGB 3012676:10Field goal +3
4TENTEN 31200:14Defensive touchdown
5TENTEN 306113:11Punt
6GBGB 187374:21Punt
7TENTEN 20432:17Punt
8GBGB 2512926:02Field goal +3
9TENTEN 157223:22Turnover on downs
10GBTEN 366413:13Touchdown +7
11TENTEN 329683:30Touchdown +7
12GBGB 30572:14Punt
13TENTEN 305252:13Fumble
14GBGB 476152:36Punt
15TENTEN 21672:59Punt
16GBGB 32450:58Punt
17TENTEN 204-142:15Punt
18GBGB 408413:11Field goal +3
19TENTEN 30691:21Interception
20GBGB 18431:08Punt
21TENTEN 274411:00End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Malik Willis13/192021033.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Malik Willis67312.218.3
Emanuel Wilson12504.20-0.3
Josh Jacobs14433.10-5.1
Jayden Reed2199.501.3
Christopher Brooks331.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Watson2267011%6.9
Jayden Reed4650032%-0.9
Emanuel Wilson2235111%3.2
Tucker Kraft2324016%0.5
Romeo Doubs1218011%0.5
Josh Jacobs11505%-0.3
Luke Musgrave11305%-0.6
Dontayvion Wicks020011%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah McDuffie630.500
Eric Stokes500.000
Jaire Alexander410.011
Xavier McKinney410.011
Quay Walker130.500
Devonte Wyatt312.000
Kingsley Enagbare131.500
Edgerrin Cooper040.500
Preston Smith302.000
Lukas Van Ness111.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Will Levis26/34260228-17.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard6142.30-1.7
Will Levis3124.00-0.5
Tyjae Spears273.50-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins6773121%-2.6
Tyjae Spears4454012%1.6
Josh Whyle4543015%3.0
Tyler Boyd3433012%0.6
Tony Pollard3415012%-1.4
Chigoziem Okonkwo221506%0.4
Calvin Ridley13909%-1.1
Treylon Burks13909%-0.4
Nick Vannett22916%1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones720.000
Kenneth Murray532.000
Quandre Diggs510.000
Amani Hooker320.000
Jeffery Simmons231.000
L'Jarius Sneed500.000
Jamal Adams120.000
Harold Landry210.000
Roger McCreary200.000
Jarvis Brownlee200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TEN -3
Closing total
37
GB moneyline
+136
TEN moneyline
-162

Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37; the game landed 44 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
87°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
GB 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Brian Callahan