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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 30 at Tennessee Titans 14. Final.
Titans -3 upsetO 37 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 3
Green Bay Packers 30, Titans 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 0:58, 1st and 10, on Jaire Alexander — 18.8 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:58 · 1st and 10
Jaire Alexander
Packers
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 30–14. Biggest swing: Q1 0:58, Packers +18.8% win probability on one snap.
18.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian WatsonPackersQ2 1:38(1:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at TEN 13 for 37 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
9.8pts
Will LevisPackersQ3 0:35(:35) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at GB 41 for -10 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare) [55-K.Enagbare], touched at GB 45, RECOVERED by GB-90-L.Van Ness at GB 47.
9.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Titans at 4 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.37 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Packers149 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.8 for TitansExpected points −8.89 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:58GB +19% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:35GB +10% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at GB 41 for -10 yards (55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare) [55-K.Enagbare], touched at GB 45, RECOVERED by GB-90-L.Van Ness at GB 47.
2nd · 1:38TEN +10% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at TEN 13 for 37 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
1st · 13:43TEN +10% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 9-C.Watson to TEN 6 for 30 yards (21-R.McCreary).
1st · 3:15TEN +7% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end pushed ob at TEN 2 for 29 yards (38-L.Sneed).
1st · 9:47TEN +7% win prob(9:47) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to GB 15 for 20 yards (7-Q.Walker, 56-E.Cooper).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brayden Narveson's 21-yard field goal with 1:08 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
2nd0:03Brayden Narveson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+320–7
3rd8:33Emanuel Wilson·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Malik Willisfrom Malik Willis+727–7
3rd5:00DeAndre Hopkins·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Will Levisfrom Will Levis+727–14
4th3:34Brayden Narveson·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+330–14
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryTitans
Packers6–3Titans
378Total yards237
6.4Yards per play4.5
39%Success rate43%
36%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays4
15First downs17
3Sacks taken8
0Turnovers3
The read
Packers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.37Titans: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Packers: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.40Titans: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Packers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Titans’s 53 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Titans 2.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 81.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 2.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 21 team-games charted in week 3 — 14.3 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.5 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected, +11.6 pts, sat 18.3 points above their season number of −6.7 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 2.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 2 against 22.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Titans12.0%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteTEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 52.0%, 23.1 points above their season mean of 28.9% and 2.3 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
W.Levis pass−23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:58 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 31 · gained nothing · -8.89 EP · −23.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 77 yards from the GB 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.2340%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.3882%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2729%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2871%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Packers6Titans0
Packers7Titans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Titans 5
Packers7Titans6
Packers7Titans7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Packers 1
Packers10Titans7
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Titans 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Packers16Titans7
Touchdown2 plays
Packers17Titans7
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 36
2nd quarter35 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Titans 46
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Titans 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 27
Packers20Titans7
Field goal19 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Titans 6
3rd quarter39 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 37
Packers26Titans7
Packers27Titans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Titans 25
Packers27Titans13
Packers27Titans14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Packers 11
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 38
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Packers 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Titans 38
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 39
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Packers 37
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 22
Packers30Titans14
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Titans 29
Intercepted6 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Packers 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
