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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 3
It turned at Q1 14:35, 1st and 20, on Kamu Grugier-Hill — 17.0 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:35 · 1st and 20
Kamu Grugier-Hill
Vikings
(14:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 3-T.Dell INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (97-H.Phillips) at HOU 26. 54-K.Grugier-Hill to HOU 21 for 5 yards (12-N.Collins; 22-C.Akers).
Minnesota Vikings 34–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:35, Vikings +17.0% win probability on one snap.
17.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(14:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 3-T.Dell INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (97-H.Phillips) at HOU 26. 54-K.Grugier-Hill to HOU 21 for 5 yards (12-N.Collins; 22-C.Akers).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Justin Jefferson's 6-yard touchdown catch with 12:10 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Justin Jefferson6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 62 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Vikings’s 59 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Texans 2, Vikings 5.
Texans outgained Vikings 296-274 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate, 7.8%, sat 15.5 points below their season number of 23.3% — they dropped back clean by 2.1 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 53.3% in week 2 against 75.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 25.0% in week 2 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.4 points.
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 37.5% in week 2 against 12.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
MIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 34.1% in week 2 against 58.8% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
MIN's play-action rate turned over: 16.1% in week 2 against 31.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Texans6.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 62 snaps
Vikings1.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.2 vs their 4.1 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 81%
Tendencies room →Texans75.0%leaned — passed early · +18.9 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 44 early downs
Vikings44.4%leaned — ran early · −10.1 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 46%
Tendencies room →Texans7.8%off script — dropped back clean · −15.5 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−2.07× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Vikings31.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 90%
Fourth Down room →Texans75.0%leaned — went for it · +41.7 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings33.3%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 78%
Tendencies room →Texans12.5%leaned — sat back · −12.4 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Vikings58.8%leaned — sent pressure · +14.0 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Texans21.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Vikings15.7%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
HOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.8%, 15.5 points below their season mean of 23.3% and 2.1 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
20/31, 215 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.8 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
17/28, 181 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
5.3 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.8 | −1.4 | 60% | 53% | 24% | 0% | 19 car, 102 yd · 5/6, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 23.2 | +3.7 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 181 yd, 4 TD |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.1 | +4.6 | 90% | 100% | 32% | 41% | 6/8, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.9 | +0.8 | 85% | 81% | 28% | 37% | 1/1, 13 yd · 10/12, 94 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 12.6 | −10.5 | 82% | 81% | 23% | 38% | 4/10, 86 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +2.6 | 86% | 100% | 16% | 18% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/4, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Tank DellWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +1.7 | 67% | 69% | 14% | 18% | 5/6, 62 yd |
| Cam AkersRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.9 | +0.9 | 43% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 9 car, 21 yd · 1/3, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 9.8 | −2.3 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 215 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 12 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | −0.4 | 81% | 78% | 12% | 7% | 1/3, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 4.8 | +1.8 | 42% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.9 | 19% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Davis MillsQB | 3.2 | −6.5 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 7/12, 79 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −4.4 | 96% | 92% | 12% | 17% | 2/5, 11 yd |
| J.J. TaylorRB | 2.3 | −1.1 | 15% | 17% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 0 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.1 | 43% | 63% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 24% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 1.3 | −2.4 | 35% | 41% | 0% | — | 7 car, 13 yd |
| British BrooksRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 28% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 18% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Steven SimsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Nick MullensQB | 0.0 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.0 | — | 19% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Myles GaskinRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 49% | 34% | 4% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 3-T.Dell INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (97-H.Phillips) at HOU 26. 54-K.Grugier-Hill to HOU 21 for 5 yards (12-N.Collins; 22-C.Akers).
Q1 14:35 · Texans · 1st & 20 at HOU 20 · gained nothing · -5.30 EP · −12.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 77 yards from the MIN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Texans0
Vikings6Texans0Vikings7Texans0Vikings13Texans0Vikings14Texans0Vikings20Texans0Vikings21Texans6Vikings21Texans7Vikings21Texans7Vikings24Texans7Vikings30Texans7Vikings31Texans7Vikings34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/31 | 215 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −8.8 |
| Davis Mills | 7/12 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 | −3.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| J.J. Taylor |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 12 | 94 | 0 | 28% | +3.6 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 10 | 86 | 0 | 23% | −2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/28 | 181 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_03_HOU_MIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 41 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| British Brooks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tank Dell | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 14% | +0.3 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 12% | +1.2 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 7% | +0.5 |
| J.J. Taylor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.9 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.0 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Barnett | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Settle | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Anderson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 102 |
| 5.4 |
| 0 |
| +2.2 |
| Ty Chandler | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 81 | 1 | 32% | +4.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 24% | +4.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 16% | +2.8 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12% | +0.0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
