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2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Houston Texans

7

Minnesota VikingsWinner

34

HOU -2 upsetU 46 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 34–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:35, HOU +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MINHOU
Q1 · 14:35HOU 0MIN 0HOU ball · 1st & 20HOU 55%

(14:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 3-T.Dell INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (97-H.Phillips) at HOU 26. 54-K.Grugier-Hill to HOU 21 for 5 yards (12-N.Collins; 22-C.Akers).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:35HOU +17% win prob(14:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 3-T.Dell INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (97-H.Phillips) at HOU 26. 54-K.Grugier-Hill to HOU 21 for 5 yards (12-N.Collins; 22-C.Akers).
  2. Q1 · 4:36HOU +8% win prob(4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
  3. Q1 · 6:51MIN +8% win prob(6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to MIN 35 for 3 yards (44-J.Metellus).
  4. Q1 · 5:25HOU +8% win prob(5:25) 7-C.Stroud sacked at MIN 36 for -10 yards (58-J.Greenard).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:10MIN Touchdown

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0MIN 7
  2. Q1 · 1:13MIN Touchdown

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0MIN 14
  3. Q3 · 10:26MIN Touchdown

    (10:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 83-J.Nailor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0MIN 21
  4. Q3 · 4:00HOU Touchdown

    (4:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 22-C.Akers for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7MIN 21
  5. Q4 · 14:57MIN Field goal

    (14:57) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: HOU 7MIN 24
  6. Q4 · 10:16MIN Touchdown

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 86-J.Mundt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7MIN 31
  7. Q4 · 4:48MIN Field goal

    (4:48) 16-W.Reichard 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: HOU 7MIN 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansVikings
Offensive plays6259
Total yards296 (edge)274
Yards per play4.8 (edge)4.6
Expected points added / play-0.220.11 (edge)
Success rate31%47% (edge)
Dropback rate82%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.340.04 (edge)
Third downs4/146/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)24 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1617 (edge)
Sacks taken54 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Texans outgained Vikings 296–274 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

20/31, 215 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.8 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

17/28, 181 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

5.3 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

19 att, 102 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Cam AkersRB

9 att, 21 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Stefon DiggsWR

10/12 for 94 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

4/10 for 86 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 30200:36Interception
2MINHOU 217212:21Touchdown +7
3HOUHOU 3014397:32Missed field goal
4MINMIN 447563:23Touchdown +7
5HOUHOU 30571:18Punt
6MINMIN 16411:30Punt
7HOUHOU 398364:43Punt
8MINMIN 206322:51Punt
9HOUHOU 167363:55Punt
10MINMIN 138261:17Punt
11HOUHOU 13340:34End of half
12MINMIN 2310424:38Touchdown +7
13HOUHOU 30521:20Punt
14MINMIN 334-101:35Punt
15HOUHOU 288673:31Touchdown +7
16MINMIN 4011384:03Field goal +3
17HOUHOU 30430:52Interception
18MINMIN 478533:47Touchdown +7
19HOUHOU 306302:25Turnover on downs
20MINMIN 456153:06Field goal +3
21HOUHOU 2514723:56Turnover on downs
22MINMIN 3100:47End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 72 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud20/31215124-8.8
Davis Mills7/1279001-1.3
Stefon Diggs1/1130002.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cam Akers9212.30-3.1
C.J. Stroud3124.00-2.5
J.J. Taylor133.00-0.3
British Brooks122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Stefon Diggs101294028%3.6
Nico Collins41086023%-2.7
Tank Dell5662014%0.3
Dare Ogunbowale222805%0.9
Robert Woods221805%-0.5
Dalton Schultz2511012%1.2
Cam Akers13817%0.5
J.J. Taylor22005%-1.9
Xavier Hutchinson01002%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Azeez Al-Shaair710.000
Jalen Pitre330.001
Henry To'oTo'o320.000
Jimmie Ward230.000
Kamari Lassiter300.000
Calen Bullock300.001
Derek Barnett211.000
Folorunso Fatukasi210.000
Tim Settle212.000
Will Anderson111.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold17/281814045.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones191025.402.2
Ty Chandler7131.90-3.0
Jalen Nailor133.002.0
Nick Mullens100.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson6881132%4.8
Aaron Jones5646124%4.6
Jalen Nailor3431116%2.8
Brandon Powell121308%-0.5
Trent Sherfield11804%0.3
Johnny Mundt132112%0.0
Josh Oliver01004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -2
Closing total
46
HOU moneyline
-135
MIN moneyline
+114

Texans closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 41 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
HOU 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Kevin O'Connell