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Kansas City Chiefs 22 at Atlanta Falcons 17. Final.
Chiefs -3 ✓U 46 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 3
Kansas City Chiefs 22, Falcons 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:56, 4th and 1, on Bijan Robinson — 33.3 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:56 · 4th and 1
Bijan Robinson
Chiefs
(:56) 7-B.Robinson left end to KC 16 for -3 yards (32-N.Bolton, 54-L.Chenal).
Dome
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Kansas City Chiefs 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:56, Chiefs +33.3% win probability on one snap.
33.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyle PittsFalconsQ2 7:08(7:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to KC 1 for 50 yards (20-J.Reid). Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Holding, declined.
16.1pts
Kirk CousinsChiefsQ4 4:08(4:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.London.
15.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 9 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 2 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Chiefs163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:56) 7-B.Robinson left end to KC 16 for -3 yards (32-N.Bolton, 54-L.Chenal).
Swing −33.3 for FalconsExpected points −3.45 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 2 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:56KC +33% win prob(:56) 7-B.Robinson left end to KC 16 for -3 yards (32-N.Bolton, 54-L.Chenal).
2nd · 7:08ATL +16% win prob(7:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to KC 1 for 50 yards (20-J.Reid). Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 4:08KC +16% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.London.
1st · 2:53KC +15% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 83-N.Gray INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons [55-K.Elliss] at ATL -1. Touchback.
2nd · 0:41KC +13% win prob(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Conner (98-T.Wharton) [98-T.Wharton] at ATL 49. 27-C.Conner to ATL 46 for 3 yards. Lateral to 35-Ja.Watson to ATL 34 for 12 yards (63-C.Lindstrom).
4th · 1:51ATL +12% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney to KC 37 for no gain (35-Ja.Watson). PENALTY on KC-35-Ja.Watson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at KC 37 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 21-yard field goal with 9:42 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd2:48Harrison Butker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+310–14
2nd0:11Harrison Butker·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+313–14
3rd9:42Harrison Butker·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+316–14
3rd1:21JuJu Smith-Schuster·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, hit right upright+622–14
4th12:56Younghoe Koo·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+322–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryFalcons
Chiefs5–2Falcons
358Total yards312
5.2Yards per play5.7
59%Success rate40%
46%Third-down rate22%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays5
22First downs15
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Chiefs: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.10Falcons: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.09Falcons: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.34Falcons: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 69 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Falcons’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Falcons 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 14.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
7 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.4 points.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.0 pts in week 2 against +6.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +14.5 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteKC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 51.6%, 15.8 points above their season mean of 35.8% and 1.8 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
64Wanya MorrisT · Every snap100%74 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%74 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%74 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Heavy rotation74%55 snaps
42Carson SteeleRB · Heavy rotation62%46 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation55%41 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Robinson left−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:56) 7-B.Robinson left end to KC 16 for -3 yards (32-N.Bolton, 54-L.Chenal).
Q4 0:56 · Falcons · 4th & 1 at KC 13 · lost 3 · -3.45 EP · −35.1% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 88 yards from the ATL 6 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
50%
Yards
656
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.0558%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.2567%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2845%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.1138%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Chiefs0Falcons6
Chiefs0Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Chiefs 14
Intercepted20 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Falcons 14
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 33
2nd quarter52 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Chiefs6Falcons7
Chiefs7Falcons7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Falcons 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Chiefs7Falcons13
Chiefs7Falcons14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs10Falcons14
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Falcons 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 32
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 39
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 35
Chiefs13Falcons14
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Falcons 26
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Chiefs16Falcons14
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Falcons 1
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Falcons 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chiefs22Falcons14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Falcons 10
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 26
4th quarter50 plays
Chiefs22Falcons17
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Chiefs 36
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 38
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Chiefs 6
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chiefs 14
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
The period ended11 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Chiefs 13
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
