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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers 20. Final.
Steelers -3 ✓U 36 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Chargers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 8:01, 1st and 10, on Bud Dupree — 14.6 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:01 · 1st and 10
Bud Dupree
Chargers
(8:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 48-B.Dupree (0-D.Henley) at LAC 34. 48-B.Dupree to LAC 34 for no gain (66-M.McCormick).
Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–10. Biggest swing: Q3 8:01, Chargers +14.6% win probability on one snap.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Calvin AustinSteelersQ3 11:08(11:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle to 19-C.Austin to LAC 17 for 25 yards (36-J.Taylor).
13.5pts
George PickensSteelersQ3 2:49(2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to LAC 41 for 8 yards (7-K.Fulton). PENALTY on LAC-52-K.Mack, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
13.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 2 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Chargers at 3 of 11 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Chargers143 of 155 plays carry both curves
(8:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 48-B.Dupree (0-D.Henley) at LAC 34. 48-B.Dupree to LAC 34 for no gain (66-M.McCormick).
Swing −14.6 for SteelersExpected points −4.98 for SteelersThe model had Chargers 4 points higher than the market did.play 102
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:01LAC +15% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 48-B.Dupree (0-D.Henley) at LAC 34. 48-B.Dupree to LAC 34 for no gain (66-M.McCormick).
3rd · 11:08PIT +14% win prob(11:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle to 19-C.Austin to LAC 17 for 25 yards (36-J.Taylor).
3rd · 2:49PIT +13% win prob(2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to LAC 41 for 8 yards (7-K.Fulton). PENALTY on LAC-52-K.Mack, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
4th · 7:12PIT +10% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle to 19-C.Austin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:21PIT +10% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 30-yard field goal with 14:17 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Steelers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Chargers: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.13Steelers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Chargers: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.23Steelers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Chargers: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.00Steelers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 45 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Steelers’s 63 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Steelers28.0%
leaned — got home · +11.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.7 pts, 11.1 points below their season mean of -1.6 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to LAC 41 for 8 yards (7-K.Fulton). PENALTY on LAC-52-K.Mack, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
Q3 2:49 · Steelers · 3rd & 10 at LAC 49 · gained 8 · +2.87 EP · +13.5% win probability
141 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 84 yards from the PIT 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
512
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.1779%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.2368%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.2063%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3925%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.1338%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2263%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.2514%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1633%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.210%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 37
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 31
Punt4 plays
Chargers6Steelers0
Chargers7Steelers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Steelers 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 46
2nd quarter49 plays
Chargers7Steelers6
Chargers7Steelers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Chargers 5
Chargers10Steelers7
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Steelers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 36
The period ended13 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Chargers 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Chargers10Steelers10
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Chargers 17
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Chargers 14
4th quarter37 plays
Chargers10Steelers13
Field goal3 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Steelers 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chargers10Steelers19
Chargers10Steelers20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 45
Punt5 plays
The period ended14 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Chargers 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -3
Closing total
36
Chargers moneyline
+124
Steelers moneyline
-148
Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 36; the game landed 30 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 78°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin
3rd · 12:39
PIT +9% win prob
(12:39) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short right to 13-S.Miller to PIT 47 for 11 yards (3-D.James) [90-T.Tart]. PENALTY on LAC-3-D.James, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 47.
3rd · 4:28PIT +9% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 36 for 15 yards (32-A.Gilman, 3-D.James). PENALTY on LAC-3-D.James, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 36.
