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Seattle Seahawks 24, Dolphins 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 0:05, 1st and 10, on DK Metcalf — 9.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:05 · 1st and 10
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -4 and covered, winning by 21.
Seattle Seahawks 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:05, Seahawks +9.2% win probability on one snap.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Geno SmithDolphinsQ1 12:17(12:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at MIA 42 for -5 yards (90-D.Hand).
7.1pts
Kader KohouDolphinsQ1 2:28(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 26-Z.Charbonnet INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [91-E.Ogbah] at SEA 8. 4-K.Kohou to SEA 6 for 2 yards (26-Z.Charbonnet).
8.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Dolphins158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +9.2 for SeahawksExpected points +5.51 for SeahawksThe model had Dolphins 8 points higher than the market did.play 41
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:05SEA +9% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:28MIA +8% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 26-Z.Charbonnet INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [91-E.Ogbah] at SEA 8. 4-K.Kohou to SEA 6 for 2 yards (26-Z.Charbonnet).
1st · 12:17MIA +7% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at MIA 42 for -5 yards (90-D.Hand).
1st · 8:41MIA +6% win prob(8:41) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
1st · 6:48SEA +5% win prob(6:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:18SEA +5% win prob(7:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at MIA 4 for 22 yards (29-K.Fuller).
1st · 4:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 56-yard field goal with 10:54 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:54Jason Myers·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+30–3
Seahawks ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.43Dolphins: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.00Seahawks: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.43Dolphins: −0.43 expected points added per play
−0.02Seahawks: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.42Dolphins: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.03Seahawks: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 56 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Seahawks 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, +12.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
MIA's play-action rate turned over: 6.8% in week 2 against 38.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
MIA's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 2 against 18.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks33.3%
off script — got home · +15.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+2.22× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 15.8 points above their season mean of 17.5% and 2.2 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive
65Robert JonesG · Every snap100%61 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%61 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%61 snaps
73Austin JacksonT · Full-time98%60 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Full-time84%51 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation74%45 snaps
70Kendall LammT · Heavy rotation67%41 snaps
19Skylar ThompsonQB · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational43%26 snaps
14Tim BoyleQB · Rotational43%26 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Rotational41%25 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational38%23 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Rotational33%20 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational30%18 snaps
0Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational28%17 snaps
23Jeff WilsonRB · Situational23%14 snaps
25Jaylen WrightRB · Situational21%13 snaps
84Erik EzukanmaWR · Situational18%11 snaps
80Tanner ConnerWR · Situational13%8 snaps
82D'Wayne EskridgeWR · Situational13%8 snaps
52Patrick PaulT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Andrew MeyerCEthan BonnerCBChanning TindallILBMohamed KamaraOLBTyler HuntleyQBRaheem MostertRBMalik WashingtonWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:05 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 29 · gained 71 · +5.51 EP · +12.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 98 yards from the SEA 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
35%
Yards
575
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0168%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29-0.4252%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.8194%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0450%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2283%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Dolphins0Seahawks3
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Dolphins 37
No good6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Seahawks 39
Dolphins0Seahawks9
Dolphins0Seahawks10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 47 to the Dolphins 4
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Seahawks 43
Intercepted4 plays
Dolphins3Seahawks10
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Seahawks 4
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Dolphins3Seahawks16
Dolphins3Seahawks17
Touchdown3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Dolphins 46
No good10 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Dolphins 34
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Seahawks 36
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 37
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Seahawks 44
The period ended8 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Seahawks 49
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 27
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 49
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 29
Intercepted8 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Dolphins 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Dolphins 49
4th quarter39 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 2
Dolphins3Seahawks23
Dolphins3Seahawks24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 2 to the Dolphins 10
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Seahawks 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
